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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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29 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

10hrs and no posts...

26 days and we spring forward 1 hr

Here, I took this from the front seat of a Sno Cat last night. 

8D8F91B8-3D36-44FE-B429-15823CE42543.jpeg

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Event totals: 0.8” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

We’ve picked up some accumulation from the current system, which has the name Winter Storm Viola.  The BTV NWS says there’s a surface low southeast of the benchmark, with multiple shortwaves in deep SW flow.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 40.0

Snow Density: 2.5% H2O

Temperature: 16.9 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

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10 hours ago, J.Spin said:

And that snowpack at your place – I’m not sure you’re going to want to hear this, but it’s possible that it’s even slightly above average.  Your neighbor has been reporting snowpack depths between 2 and 3 feet for the past month, and we’d obviously have to look at the data, but that actually could be a bit high for this time of year.  Snowpack depth at your site probably peaks at some point in March, so it’s still increasing.  Also note that it looks like your neighbor is reporting 6 to 7 inches of liquid in the snowpack, and that may very well be ahead of average pace, even if the depth is about average.

I was curious to follow up on the actual data for this, so I had a moment to jump on the CoCoRaHS and check out the Feb 18th numbers for your neighbors site.  That site only goes back to 2010, but here are the snow depth numbers for Feb 18th since that point:

 

Feb 18th snow depth at NH-CS-10     

Year     Depth

2010    18.0”

2011    28.0”

2012    11.0”

2013    27.0”

2014    30.0”

2015    35.0”

2016    2.5”

2017    49.0”

2018    21.0”

2019    48.0”

2020    27.0”

2021    28.0”

           

Mean   27.0”

S.D.     13.4”

 

Your neighbor was reporting a depth of 28.0” yesterday, so indeed, that’s actually an inch above that 12-year average.

There are only a couple of outrageous years with snowpack depths pushing 50” at this time of the year in the data, so I’d say you’re getting a solid representation of the “typical” February snowpack up there.

The only conclusion I can come to is that you’re not a curse on your neighbors, or NNE in general as far as I can see.  I doubt you’re going to get kicked out of your new place on that issue.

And liquid equivalent in that snowpack is really robust – those numbers are not as available (it would take a lot of effort to get those numbers every day without a snow pillow or something similar), but 6 to 7 inches of liquid at that depth is certainly solid.

Note that the snowpack there should be increasing for probably another month though under normal conditions.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

I was curious to follow up on the actual data for this, so I had a moment to jump on the CoCoRaHS and check out the Feb 18th numbers for your neighbors site.  That site only goes back to 2010, but here are the snow depth numbers for Feb 18th since that point:

 

Feb 18th snow depth at NH-CS-10     

Year     Depth

2010    18.0”

2011    28.0”

2012    11.0”

2013    27.0”

2014    30.0”

2015    35.0”

2016    2.5”

2017    49.0”

2018    21.0”

2019    48.0”

2020    27.0”

2021    28.0”

           

Mean   27.0”

S.D.     13.4”

 

Your neighbor was reporting a depth of 28.0” yesterday, so indeed, that’s actually an inch above that 12-year average.

There are only a couple of outrageous years with snowpack depths pushing 50” at this time of the year in the data, so I’d say you’re getting a solid representation of the “typical” February snowpack up there.

The only conclusion I can come to is that you’re not a curse on your neighbors, or NNE in general as far as I can see.  I doubt you’re going to get kicked out of your new place on that issue.

And liquid equivalent in that snowpack is really robust – those numbers are not as available (it would take a lot of effort to get those numbers every day without a snow pillow or something similar), but 6 to 7 inches of liquid at that depth is certainly solid.

Note that the snowpack there should be increasing for probably another month though under normal conditions.

Yep, snowpack and retention has been great since the New Year holiday. Based on those averages, it would seem some years trade-off with more snowfall but also more melting. Ending up at the same place.  

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Has there even been a cutter since the Grinch?  I honestly cant remember, but don't think so?  That's a pretty long stretch if so.  Obviously some missed chances too, but only 1 cutter for DEC through FEB I is a good run--even if it was a once a decade cutter..lol.

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The grinch really delayed the start of the season up here and limited the woods and natural trails until about mlk, but I might make that trade again to get a 5 week stretch like we have.  From a pure winter standpoint, nothing spectacular, but from a ski perspective, It was just enough base with near daily refreshers and zero thaw/freeze or rain.  Pretty good run.  And the northern greens weren’t destroyed this week like anything south of killington was.  March has always been my favorite New England ski month so hopefully, it delivers.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

      

Mean   27.0”

S.D.     13.4”

 

& that right there summarizes why being a winter weenie in NE is hard business!

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Just now, bwt3650 said:

The grinch really delayed the start of the season up here and limited the woods and natural trails until about mlk, but I might make that trade again to get a 5 week stretch like we have.  From a pure winter standpoint, nothing spectacular, but from a ski perspective, It was just enough base with near daily refreshers and zero thaw/freeze or rain.  Pretty good run.  And the northern greens weren’t destroyed this week like anything south of killington was.  March has always been my favorite New England ski month so hopefully, it delivers.

The super-Grinch has really messed with my ice fishing plans, since I no longer do it at near/subzero temps - too much bother having to skimming my topwater traps every 5 minutes.  The mild wx in early-mid January would've been perfect but my preferred pond didn't yet have safe ice.  (No safe ice in Maine in January?!?!)  Since then Saturdays have all been cold and windy, days when I'd have been cutting holes when I was 25 or 40 but not now.

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18 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Has there even been a cutter since the Grinch?  I honestly cant remember, but don't think so?  That's a pretty long stretch if so.  Obviously some missed chances too, but only 1 cutter for DEC through FEB I is a good run--even if it was a once a decade cutter..lol.

Does this week's sleet fest count?

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20 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Has there even been a cutter since the Grinch?  I honestly cant remember, but don't think so?  That's a pretty long stretch if so.  Obviously some missed chances too, but only 1 cutter for DEC through FEB I is a good run--even if it was a once a decade cutter..lol.

I don't think so. The cutters on the models have all trended weak and SE over time since the Grinch. That was the last time I had any liquid precip here of note (maybe some freezing drizzle a couple times).

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11 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The super-Grinch has really messed with my ice fishing plans, since I no longer do it at near/subzero temps - too much bother having to skimming my topwater traps every 5 minutes.  The mild wx in early-mid January would've been perfect but my preferred pond didn't yet have safe ice.  (No safe ice in Maine in January?!?!)  Since then Saturdays have all been cold and windy, days when I'd have been cutting holes when I was 25 or 40 but not now.

Maine seems like the place that has really been shafted this year.  I don’t know the climo that well (except it’s Maine, so cold) but would have expected much higher snow totals.  I guess you rely solely on synoptic bombs to get the big numbers and there really hasn’t been many.  If you took away the upslope, we would be well below as well.

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1 hour ago, bwt3650 said:

The grinch really delayed the start of the season up here and limited the woods and natural trails until about mlk, but I might make that trade again to get a 5 week stretch like we have.  From a pure winter standpoint, nothing spectacular, but from a ski perspective, It was just enough base with near daily refreshers and zero thaw/freeze or rain.  Pretty good run.  And the northern greens weren’t destroyed this week like anything south of killington was.  March has always been my favorite New England ski month so hopefully, it delivers.

That is what I think too.  Locally, it delayed the start of of our snowmobiling a week or two.  On difference that made it feel longer is that it was pretty much the entire state.  Usually you can find open trails in the NEK and higher elevations before other areas get going.  Not after this grinch storm.  Everywhere got whacked with that storm and combined with the lack of real cold to freeze up ponds and streams, the winter feel was skimpy for a while.

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4 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Look at that 2016 depth..:lol:   What a disaster that winter was...ugh.

What a dumpster fire that was lol.  I think after that was my changing point.  No longer anxious for snow because I know it’ll come and be better than that winter haha.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What a dumpster fire that was lol.  I think after that was my changing point.  No longer anxious for snow because I know it’ll come and be better than that winter haha.

Ain't that the truth! 14-15 was my first winter at the Bush and I was like oh, 250" a year is average, this is how it always is. Great! So yeah the following year did some bad things to my psyche haha. 

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3 hours ago, bwt3650 said:

Maine seems like the place that has really been shafted this year.  I don’t know the climo that well (except it’s Maine, so cold) but would have expected much higher snow totals.  I guess you rely solely on synoptic bombs to get the big numbers and there really hasn’t been many.  If you took away the upslope, we would be well below as well.

Not many places can get both good CAD and good upslope.  We benefit from the former but get zilch for the latter.

That Grinch was both my greatest calendar-day rain in December and biggest positive departure (29° AN) for any date.  CAR did it even better - somewhat less precip but +35, also their greatest positive departure and their POR is 82 years while mine is not quite 23.  Farther north, Van Buren was +41 that day.

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6 hours ago, powderfreak said:

What a dumpster fire that was lol.  I think after that was my changing point.  No longer anxious for snow because I know it’ll come and be better than that winter haha.

The stats for my site say that was a 1 in 90-year season, so not something we should really have to deal with very often.

It was so anomalous (2.29 σ below the mean) that it still screws with my 14-year data set in a massive way.

I always assumed that 100” of snowfall was about the floor at our site for a season, but obviously that season threw that idea right out the window.  With that data point in the mix, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season approximately 1 in every 15 years, but that statistic is heavily skewed due to that season.  Without that data point, the data say that we should get a sub-100” season roughly 1 in every 66 years.  The data are the data of course, and the reality is probably somewhere between those points, but that season has a notable impact on smaller data sets for winter around here.

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Next week looks fairly active for the NNE mountains. Nothing big, but looks like continuous flakes in the air and a refresher of a few inches to cover up the hard part of the pack. Little impulses swing through Monday and Thursday with an upslope signal in between.

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Yea JSpin-off the charts anomalous really.

I have a small data set obviously, but you can see it below.  15-16 certainly sticks out and honestly it could have been a lot worse here, I recall getting really lucky in a few skinny lake streamers  and some other very localized event otherwise it could have easily been 20" here in 15-16.   The closest COOP to me which is Peru---was 20" lower than any other season in its 80 year history.

14-15- 103.2"

15-16- 32"

16-17- 99.6"

17-18- 138.4"

18-19-96.6"

19-20-93.2:

20-21-100.7" (STD)

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32 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Next week looks fairly active for the NNE mountains. Nothing big, but looks like continuous flakes in the air and a refresher of a few inches to cover up the hard part of the pack. Little impulses swing through Monday and Thursday with an upslope signal in between.

It’s probably gonna rock. I’m going to the Berkshires for a few days lol

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Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.04” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 27.9 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

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14 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Next week looks fairly active for the NNE mountains. Nothing big, but looks like continuous flakes in the air and a refresher of a few inches to cover up the hard part of the pack. Little impulses swing through Monday and Thursday with an upslope signal in between.

 

Yeah, it looks like a good stretch – I’m seeing four systems suggested in the near future on the GFS and other models:

 

 

1. The current backside snow of Winter Storm Viola, which the models suggest should run through about midday Sunday

2. Monday into Tuesday, there’s a low pressure system and surface cold front crossing the region

3. Tuesday night into Wednesday, a weak low pressure system passing north of the area

4. Thursday, another system potentially moving along the international border

 

 

The BTV NWS discussion mentions all of them except the last one, but not any accumulations details at this point of course.  The mountains will do what they do with them in any event.

That looks like some classic NNE mountain weather though, and it seems like there’s a lot of northern stream vibe to it, so reliability should be up there.

It should be fun to watch them continue to put the fluff down on the slopes and hopefully increase the fun factor for any off piste spots that got hardened by that last storm.

Based on the numbers, I think it calls for this one…

Bread&Butter4.jpg

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Another 2.0 during the day today gets us to 3.4 inches for the event so far.  Still mood flaking.

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Event totals: 2.3” Snow/0.07” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.03 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 33.3

Snow Density: 3.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky: Light Snow (2-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

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Event totals: 3.1” Snow/0.08” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.8 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 80.0

Snow Density: 1.3% H2O

Temperature: 18.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (3-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 21.5 inches

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