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NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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Well that was a bust.  4” at 3,000ft... 3.5” at 750ft.

But the QPF was significant so it looks like more in the snowbanks and piles, lol.  

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Might be some days and days coming up Thursday/Friday. We'll see.

Funny how 2.5" of sleet looks like a 12" higher ratio storm when plowed. Big piles for 2"

It was good test for the new snowblower though.  Sleety and icy enough so it wasn't too easy but only 2.5"-3" so I didn't break anything the first time out.  As PF said, it's a nice qpf injection for the snowpack.

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

3.5” of dense white material on 0.64” water at 750ft.  Really nice SWE addition to the pack.

4.25” on the board at 3,000ft.  As expected with warm air aloft, not much change, if any, with elevation.

B6F27327-2D23-4859-A2E3-CA7F95A81E49.jpeg.2dd29129efc15e9537078c9b5ddaca1f.jpeg

 

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Well that was a bust.  4” at 3,000ft... 3.5” at 750ft.

But the QPF was significant so it looks like more in the snowbanks and piles, lol.  

 

42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Melted down 0.64” water.  So like 5-6:1 ratio at home.

What was expected in the area for liquid equivalent – was that lower than forecast?  I assume the snowfall numbers are low generally because of ratios, but we certainly got a good shot of liquid equivalent from this so far.  It looks like there’s supposed to be some backside snow as well to top things off, but our point forecast doesn’t have too much in it.  It’s snowing here in BTV right now though. 

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27 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

 

What was expected in the area for liquid equivalent – was that lower than forecast?  I assume the snowfall numbers are low generally because of ratios, but we certainly got a good shot of liquid equivalent from this so far.  It looks like there’s supposed to be some backside snow as well to top things off, but our point forecast doesn’t have too much in it.  It’s snowing here in BTV right now though. 

No the QPF was spot on it seems.  The snowfall was definitely a bust in terms of inches, but in the end it doesn’t really matter if the QPF expected was realized.  Just a lot of sleet and granular flakes, topped with drizzle/freezing drizzle most of the afternoon.

Back over to a heavy snow squall at the mountain.

B39F15A9-BF59-4BAF-9058-FC0F401E50BA.gif.03c2d96828707d1249b909b7954fe58b.gif

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Event totals: 4.3” Snow/0.85” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.0

Snow Density: 14.3% H2O

Temperature: 32.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

No the QPF was spot on it seems.  The snowfall was definitely a bust in terms of inches, but in the end it doesn’t really matter if the QPF expected was realized.  Just a lot of sleet and granular flakes, topped with drizzle/freezing drizzle most of the afternoon.

Back over to a heavy snow squall at the mountain.

B39F15A9-BF59-4BAF-9058-FC0F401E50BA.gif.03c2d96828707d1249b909b7954fe58b.gif

A nice squall came through here about 45 minutes ago.

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32 minutes ago, klw said:

A nice squall came through here about 45 minutes ago.

Same here. Not quite windexy but a squall nonetheless. Down to 23.5°

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Event totals: 4.5” Snow/0.86” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 20.0

Snow Density: 5.0% H2O

Temperature: 8.6 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 20.5 inches

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Well, in a seeming repeat of the storyline we have seen play out all winter, next week is painted as very active in NNE. A series of impulses move through and leave upslope in their wake as well. 

That said this week was also progged to be very snowy and was sort of a bust. Mixed mess yesterday and some snow showers through the rest of the week as the Thursday/Friday storm right now looks like a miss from most of the synoptic piece.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Well, in a seeming repeat of the storyline we have seen play out all winter, next week is painted as very active in NNE. A series of impulses move through and leave upslope in their wake as well. 

That said this week was also progged to be very snowy and was sort of a bust. Mixed mess yesterday and some snow showers through the rest of the week as the Thursday/Friday storm right now looks like a miss from most of the synoptic piece.

For sure.  Those 2-storm maps showing 15-20" for our area were slightly optimistic, given yesterday's 2" of IP and the current forecast for 1" tomorrow night/Friday.  And the cold air is on the way out, it seems, so the probable dumps that seem to go away may become thread-the-needle scenarios.

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This last storm, while it may have added significant density to the pack, has really changed the conditions on the mountain. Anything not groomed today was just outright awful - essentially cement. We definitely need some pow. 

On a funny note, the deck in front of my dining room window is unshoveled and my dog can now walk on the snowpack without sinking in, so when she goes by the window she looks the size of a horse lol. 

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

LOL this thread is dead. Been a pretty slow couple of weeks since the early Feb storm. Hope we at least get back into a bread and butter pattern soon. Next week shows a pretty lengthy spell of light upslope stuff, at least.

There's been about 6 threats since the Feb 2 storm, and if the forecasts 3 days before each had verified my area would've gotten 25-30" instead of the actual 6".  Models seem to be making more/bigger jumps close to events than usual.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

This last storm, while it may have added significant density to the pack, has really changed the conditions on the mountain. Anything not groomed today was just outright awful - essentially cement. We definitely need some pow. 

On a funny note, the deck in front of my dining room window is unshoveled and my dog can now walk on the snowpack without sinking in, so when she goes by the window she looks the size of a horse lol. 

Jay survived this pretty well, but it was a classic thaw/hard freeze for southern Vermont/Catskills.  The Mt. Snows, Magics and Hunters of the world look pretty un-skiable right now.  Killington looks like they are reopening the 25 or so trails they closed yesterday for tmrw, so maybe thats the cutoff in Vt, but for anything south of there, Thurs night/Friday isn't going to fix this.  Hopefully, Monday comes through.  I would think the northern greens/whites recover fairly quickly with what looks like several decent bread and butter shots over the next week or so.

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

LOL this thread is dead. Been a pretty slow couple of weeks since the early Feb storm. Hope we at least get back into a bread and butter pattern soon. Next week shows a pretty lengthy spell of light upslope stuff, at least.

dead beats melting, tho.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

This last storm, while it may have added significant density to the pack, has really changed the conditions on the mountain. Anything not groomed today was just outright awful - essentially cement. We definitely need some pow. 

On a funny note, the deck in front of my dining room window is unshoveled and my dog can now walk on the snowpack without sinking in, so when she goes by the window she looks the size of a horse lol. 

My kids don't come close to sinking in..I can actually walk a few steps without sinking also and then crater through like I'm falling through lake ice...lol.---19" depth.   --I think even a grinch redux wouldn't melt this.  

I haven't been in about 10 days or so, but would imagine the local hills are in rough shape right now. I'm sure they have been in grooming overdrive.

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15 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

The GFS will save the Southern Greens as it always does!!!! ha

snku_acc.us_ne.png

If I were to believe those maps I’d be using the gondola towers as a snow stake 

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Maybe some bread and butter?  Nothing huge but keeps flakes in the air and keeps the pack looking fresh?

For the first time in like 6 weeks, the snowpack doesn't "look fresh" in that fluffy pillow way.  I miss that Japan pow look with even split rail fences sporting 10" that somehow defies gravity and curls under the railing.  Dollops of snow clinging off everything.

Now it looks more like usual northeast synoptic snow... dense, packed, from town to the mountain.  I could go for some fluff on the trees, power lines, and objects to bring back the candy land forest look.

E6B88A88-8E93-42F7-80FC-BB9088E56EA1.thumb.png.b166d006454495a8b17b2733e36ddda9.png

 

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29 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe some bread and butter?  Nothing huge but keeps flakes in the air and keeps the pack looking fresh?

For the first time in like 6 weeks, the snowpack doesn't "look fresh" in that fluffy pillow way.  I miss that Japan pow look with even split rail fences sporting 10" that somehow defies gravity and curls under the railing.  Dollops of snow clinging off everything.

Now it looks more like usual northeast synoptic snow... dense, packed, from town to the mountain.  I could go for some fluff on the trees, power lines, and objects to bring back the candy land forest look.

E6B88A88-8E93-42F7-80FC-BB9088E56EA1.thumb.png.b166d006454495a8b17b2733e36ddda9.png

 

Yes please!

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Maybe some bread and butter?  Nothing huge but keeps flakes in the air and keeps the pack looking fresh?

For the first time in like 6 weeks, the snowpack doesn't "look fresh" in that fluffy pillow way.  I miss that Japan pow look with even split rail fences sporting 10" that somehow defies gravity and curls under the railing.  Dollops of snow clinging off everything.

Now it looks more like usual northeast synoptic snow... dense, packed, from town to the mountain.  I could go for some fluff on the trees, power lines, and objects to bring back the candy land forest look.

E6B88A88-8E93-42F7-80FC-BB9088E56EA1.thumb.png.b166d006454495a8b17b2733e36ddda9.png

Thanks for the map PF – looks like some nice potential bread and butter for the weekend to top off that dense stuff.  That darkest green is pushing toward a half inch of L.E.  It’s interesting, I notice that the mesoscale models have naturally been good about indicating the orographic precipitation, and the GFS does as well, but the ECMWF Hi-Res (at least where I view it on Pivotal Weather) seems fairly obtuse when it comes to those nuances.

That last storm was quite a shot in the arm for the snowpack with 0.86” of L.E. at our site, and NOHRSC indicates we’re now somewhere in the range of 4-5” of liquid in our snowpack.

We have lost a bit of our “Japan Jr.” look with that dense snow, but the stacks on larger surfaces are still out there.  And the snowpack is very robust.  A little bread and butter or some dessert will be great to bring a bit more aesthetic.

It would also be nice to get something lighter on top of that most recent storm, since it left a dense layer and/or crust, depending on latitude.  I was going to head out for some runs on Wednesday morning with the boys, but knowing that we picked up that crusty stuff, I figured we’d just wait until these next round of snow heading into the weekend.  One of my students hit the backcountry on Wednesday morning and she said it was indeed pretty crusty.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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5 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Thanks for the map PF – looks like some nice potential bread and butter for the weekend to top off that dense stuff.  That darkest green is pushing toward a half inch of L.E.  It’s interesting, I notice that the mesoscale models have naturally been good about indicating the orographic precipitation, and the GFS does as well, but the ECMWF Hi-Res (at least where I view it on Pivotal Weather) seems fairly obtuse when it comes to those nuances.

That last storm was quite a shot in the arm for the snowpack with 0.86” of L.E. at our site, and NOHRSC indicates we’re now somewhere in the range of 4-5” of liquid in our snowpack.

We have lost a bit of our “Japan Jr.” look with that dense snow, but the stacks on larger surfaces are still out there.  And the snowpack is very robust.  A little bread and butter or some dessert will be great to bring a bit more aesthetic.

It would also be nice to get something lighter on top of that most recent storm, since it left a dense layer and/or crust, depending on latitude.  I was going to head out for some runs on Wednesday morning with the boys, but knowing that we picked up that crusty stuff, I figured we’d just wait until these next round of snow heading into the weekend.  One of my students hit the backcountry on Wednesday morning and she said it was indeed pretty crusty.

Bread&Butter.jpg

Crusty Italian bread fresh out of the oven?

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