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wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

2-3” fluff at the mountain.

It looks like there’s the potential for a bit more with a resurgence this afternoon into the overnight:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

711 AM EST Sat Feb 20 2021

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

As of 711 AM EST Saturday...The upslope component will be a major factor for snowfall today, especially later in the afternoon into the evening when it appears shortwave energy will help deepen the cloud layer to support more widespread and heavier orographic snow showers. Given 850 millibar temperatures around -15 celsius, Froude numbers generally 0.5 to 1, and northwest flow in the 925-850 millibar layer, snowfall should be efficient in the spine of the Greens and have a 24 hour total of 3 to 5 inches in this area, with 1 to 3 inches elsewhere in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and Greens, and most valley locations will be dry or see just some flurries.

Bread&Butter.jpg

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23 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Yep, snowpack and retention has been great since the New Year holiday. Based on those averages, it would seem some years trade-off with more snowfall but also more melting. Ending up at the same place.  

I stayed with a friend near Randolph in Feb 17 the parking lot piles were sick. We hiked to Hermit Lake over 7 feet OTG 

20170217_130541-1.jpg

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The GYX disco as usual is far less bullish than the BTV disco and seems to mostly discuss how spring could be right around the corner, but the general gist is there about "chances" for "snow showers" in "the mountains." That's about as much as we usually get. The rest of the discussion is about how nice it is that storms are all missing to the south and it will be warmer. LOL

06z GFS looked really good for this week. Wetter than it had been.

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20 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The GYX disco as usual is far less bullish than the BTV disco and seems to mostly discuss how spring could be right around the corner, but the general gist is there about "chances" for "snow showers" in "the mountains." That's about as much as we usually get. The rest of the discussion is about how nice it is that storms are all missing to the south and it will be warmer. LOL

06z GFS looked really good for this week. Wetter than it had been.

Good week Phin

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I stayed with a friend near Randolph in Feb 17 the parking lot piles were sick. We hiked to Hermit Lake over 7 feet OTG 

20170217_130541-1.jpg

That winter was nuts.

Measured an even 375” at the High Road plot here in ‘16-17.  I even remember the last measured event in April before the ski area closed, we were stuck at 362”... wanted 375 or 400”.  The last storm was 13” of dense upslope (almost graupel) to make it an even 375.  That year just wanted to precipitate. Compared to this winter’s 157” there so far.  

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22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The GYX disco as usual is far less bullish than the BTV disco and seems to mostly discuss how spring could be right around the corner, but the general gist is there about "chances" for "snow showers" in "the mountains." That's about as much as we usually get. The rest of the discussion is about how nice it is that storms are all missing to the south and it will be warmer. LOL

06z GFS looked really good for this week. Wetter than it had been.

"Snow Showers in the mountains"....game on!!

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15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That winter was nuts.

Measured an even 375” at the High Road plot here in ‘16-17.  I even remember the last measured event in April before the ski area closed, we were stuck at 362”... wanted 375 or 400”.  The last storm was 13” of dense upslope (almost graupel) to make it an even 375.  That year just wanted to precipitate. Compared to this winter’s 157” there so far.  

I was just looking at the Mansfield Stake data after hearing about that 17' winter...couple things stood out.  That winter did look like it rocked, but wow, was 15-16 bad up there.  Was it a complete lack of snow or just constant melts?   Also, this winters totals are pretty meh, compared to the last 20 years.  I thought we had a great 6 week stretch, so nice to know unless we get a real ratter, this looks like a nice floor so far up here.

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That winter was nuts.

Measured an even 375” at the High Road plot here in ‘16-17.  I even remember the last measured event in April before the ski area closed, we were stuck at 362”... wanted 375 or 400”.  The last storm was 13” of dense upslope (almost graupel) to make it an even 375.  That year just wanted to precipitate. Compared to this winter’s 157” there so far.  

That was the winter when Chimney Pond pack reached 94", eclipsing Farmington's 84" in Feb 1969 for the state's deepest on record.

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These 3” have already made a nice difference on the trails. Interesting that the snow report says “an inch or so.” This must be the only ski resort on the planet that underreports snow. I love it here but man they could do so much better in so many areas. 

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24 minutes ago, alex said:

These 3” have already made a nice difference on the trails. Interesting that the snow report says “an inch or so.” This must be the only ski resort on the planet that underreports snow. I love it here but man they could do so much better in so many areas. 

I prefer the honesty. When I read the Wildcat updates they don't seem very honest.

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35 minutes ago, alex said:

These 3” have already made a nice difference on the trails. Interesting that the snow report says “an inch or so.” This must be the only ski resort on the planet that underreports snow. I love it here but man they could do so much better in so many areas. 

I like to think we don’t over-report or under-report... we report what it is, lol.  I really think the key to a ski area is a fixed point so you are always measuring the same place/way.  Snowfall varies so much sometimes on the mountain but over a decade now people know what the number means (if that makes sense).

I personally think all the ski areas in this area do a very good job with it.... we get plenty of practice, ha.  With that said, most have adopted the practice of “when in doubt, report low” so you don’t have social media chirping about misleading snowfall.

Personally, I prefer an underreport.  Surprise and delight leads to a better guest experience.  I have low-balled it plenty of times over the years when in doubt.  Expecting 3” and finding 6” makes for happy customers.

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39 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I like to think we don’t over-report or under-report... we report what it is, lol.  I really think the key to a ski area is a fixed point so you are always measuring the same place/way.  Snowfall varies so much sometimes on the mountain but over a decade now people know what the number means (if that makes sense).

I personally think all the ski areas in this area do a very good job with it.... we get plenty of practice, ha.  With that said, most have adopted the practice of “when in doubt, report low” so you don’t have social media chirping about misleading snowfall.

Personally, I prefer an underreport.  Surprise and delight leads to a better guest experience.  I have low-balled it plenty of times over the years when in doubt.  Expecting 3” and finding 6” makes for happy customers.

Yes that’s very true. I remember a few times in my Wildcat days when I had to choose between Wildcat and Attitash and I’d leave Attitash to go to Wildcat based on their snow report, only to get there and find out they had received 1/3 the snow of Attitash even though their report said the opposite. It was very frustrating!

It does seem like Stowe does a good job, but it’s really hard to put Bretton Woods in the same category. It’s got great terrain, unbeatable views and awesome conditions but management just does not compare to other ski areas. I mean, hell, we still have paper ski passes lol! 

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Event totals: 3.7” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 60.0

Snow Density: 1.7% H2O

Temperature: 21.0 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 21.0 inches

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8 hours ago, timp said:

Total snow globe outside. 3.5” of fluff down and big flakes falling in slow motion all morning. 

I actually went right through your area today on my way up to borderwx and bwt’s neck of the wood’s for a ski tour, so I can pass along some snow updates.

There have definitely been some notable differences in snowfall around the area.  The rounds of fluff we’ve been getting here along the spine at our site have covered up the old snow pretty well, and monitoring that aesthetic during my travels today turned out to be a decent way to see who’d recently gotten snow.

Heading east from our place, accumulations definitely drop off toward the Waterbury Village area, and indeed, all along through the east slope towns of Waterbury Center, Stowe, and Morrisville, there really hasn’t been much new snow that I could see, or what’s fallen has sublimated and disappeared quickly off the snow banks.  I’m sure accumulations increase as one heads westward up the mountain road, but down in Stowe Village, I could see that they need a refresher.

There was still light snow falling in all those east side towns, but once I left Morrisville and rose up into the Hyde Park area, the increase in snowfall intensity was obvious.  That continued right on through Eden.  The snowfall was squally, and quite heavy at times, and I was continually having to turn on my headlights and fogs when I’d get into those more intense areas of snowfall.  That increased snowfall definitely showed itself with accumulations – up in that area, all the roadside snowbanks were covered up with a solid coating of new snow.

I’d say the snow was in general a bit less through Belvidere and Montgomery Center, but once I headed toward the pass on Route 242… well, you guys know what happens up there.  I parked at that lower access area on the east side of the pass where I started my tour.  The elevation there is about 1,500’ and right from the start of the tour, I was finding 8-12” of new champagne.  Above 2,000’ there was 12-16” of accumulation.

I was checking snowpack depths along my tour, and I was already getting 40” snowpack readings at just 2,000’.  And, it snowed the whole time I was there – most of the time it was what I’d call moderate, probably in the 0.5”/hr range, but there were also stints where it bumped up to the 1”/hr range.  The snowfall was typically large, upslope-style flakes, so it can be tough to gauge the snowfall rate with those at times because they just stack up so fast.

It’s firsthand experiences like this though that have me rolling my eyes every time somebody gets going with the smack talk about Jay Peak and their snow reporting.  My actual experiences reveal again, and again, and again that they really get a ridiculous amount of snow in that area.

I’ll put together some images from today’s trip when I get a chance.

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Snowfall was actually rather light when I got home earlier today, with just some 1-2 mm flakes falling, but there’s been a pulse of moisture that’s come in from the NNW direction on the radar, and snowfall has really picked up.  The flakes are back up in size, with some more than an inch in diameter, and I’d say snowfall is in the 1”/hr range due to those large flakes.  The models have been suggesting that there would be a bit of a resurgence in the snowfall this evening.

20FEB21A.gif

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Yeah @J.Spin we only had an inch or a bit less from last night in town.  It had completely disappeared from my elevated snowboard during the day as I didn’t bother cleaning it.  Evaporated throughout the day.

Need to get back to mini-Japan... the snowbanks with high tourist traffic this holiday week have taken on a bit more brown and used look.

CDEACE27-67C5-408E-BDA5-3032426CDFEC.thumb.png.5c10453aec697ef581440bd110d5fd27.png

 

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It sounds like the Jay area and this last snowfall had some crazy gradients. Coworker who also does snow reporting duties found about 5” at Jay, but he was around 2,000ft down low as a gate keeper at a USASA event.

Said it was great skiing but he was confident in about 5” as a recent total.  Maybe 3” on top of groomed surface.  Said it snowed at times and had some sun at times, not much new near the parking lots today.

E859CB7A-F108-4205-A04B-1791CC932B31.jpeg.95f92fd8b4c05f27d7b6b821bdfefc36.jpeg
 

Then another friend went to the backcountry near Jay and reported a solid foot of fluff, similar to @J.Spin.  He said it was crazy.  Seemed like the snow got stuck in the road passes with calm winds and on the west slope... but not as much on the Jay Peak side near the base area at 1800ft.

Curious what our local resident saw up there too.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah @J.Spin we only had an inch or a bit less from last night in town.  It had completely disappeared from my elevated snowboard during the day as I didn’t bother cleaning it.  Evaporated throughout the day.

Need to get back to mini-Japan... the snowbanks with high tourist traffic this holiday week have taken on a bit more brown and used look.

Yeah, my snow had totally evaporated from both my elevated and ground boards as well today!  I measured the most recent 0.6” before heading off for my ski tour in the late morning, and when I got home this evening it was gone.  If it accumulated any higher, I’ll never know, since I wasn’t here.  It’s such angel dust that it just sublimates I guess.  I could tell that it had at least 0.01” of liquid when I was measuring it based on experience, and that would put it right in line with the previous reading as well, so that seemed like the correct L.E. to go with.

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21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Need to get back to mini-Japan... the snowbanks with high tourist traffic this holiday week have taken on a bit more brown and used look.

Are you guys getting snow from this current pulse?  The BTV NWS AFD did say low Froude Numbers at first (which I think relates to what I saw in the east side towns today), but I think the Froude was supposed to increase eventually.

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10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

Are you guys getting snow from this current pulse?  The BTV NWS AFD did say low Froude Numbers at first (which I think relates to what I saw in the east side towns today), but I think the Froude was supposed to increase eventually.

Yeah we have some snow falling, but nothing significant.  Mood snows I'd call it.  1/4" of new snow in past 45-60 minutes or so judging by the tire tracks in the Sushi Yoshi parking lot as we passed by on the evening dog walk.  I'd guess it pulses up to half inch an hour rates at times but then will drop to a heavy flurry, and repeat the process.

Though I always appreciate the evening dog walk on the Rec Path while it's snowing.  That soft squeak of boots walking the groomed surface (I love they groom the Rec Path, just step outside and wander a groomed trail), while snow falls in the headlamp and street lights.  But it would probably take at least 3 hours to accumulate an inch.

Still, a nice wintry scene this evening.  Been rotting in the 17-18" range for snow depth for weeks it seems...it just has more density to it now after that sleet event.

Untitled.jpg.03f112899cdab6709b958058c0116749.jpg

 

 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah we have some snow falling, but nothing significant.  Mood snows I'd call it.  1/4" of new snow in past 45-60 minutes or so judging by the tire tracks in the Sushi Yoshi parking lot as we passed by on the evening dog walk.  I'd guess it pulses up to half inch an hour rates at times but then will drop to a heavy flurry, and repeat the process.

Though I always appreciate the evening dog walk on the Rec Path while it's snowing.  That soft squeak of boots walking the groomed surface (I love they groom the Rec Path, just step outside and wander a groomed trail), while snow falls in the headlamp and street lights.  But it would probably take at least 3 hours to accumulate an inch.

Still, a nice wintry scene this evening.  Been rotting in the 17-18" range for snow depth for weeks it seems...it just has more density to it now after that sleet event.

Untitled.jpg.03f112899cdab6709b958058c0116749.jpg

 

 

Same here, although we have been hanging around 30” depth for weeks. Basically zero pack progress in Feb but also basically no loss. I am hoping for a fun wound-up low with some wind soon.

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14 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It sounds like the Jay area and this last snowfall had some crazy gradients. Coworker who also does snow reporting duties found about 5” at Jay, but he was around 2,000ft down low as a gate keeper at a USASA event.

Said it was great skiing but he was confident in about 5” as a recent total.  Maybe 3” on top of groomed surface.  Said it snowed at times and had some sun at times, not much new near the parking lots today.

Then another friend went to the backcountry near Jay and reported a solid foot of fluff, similar to @J.Spin.  He said it was crazy.  Seemed like the snow got stuck in the road passes with calm winds and on the west slope... but not as much on the Jay Peak side near the base area at 1800ft.

I was on Big Jay and in the Big Jay Basin area today, so that southeast side of Jay Peak seemed to really get quite a shot of new snow.  I can’t say when all of it fell, and I believe I only saw 3” new on the snow report for the resort this morning when I checked.  I actually never headed over the pass to the resort side, but I was wondering what it was like in terms of new snow over there.

Whatever the setup has been in terms of wind direction and Froude, etc., that Big Jay Basin area today was definitely getting hit.  Something similar was going on with Hyde Park and Eden as well, to a lesser degree of course.

I actually headed up to the Jay Peak area to tour today because it seemed like they’d generally avoided that mixed precipitation earlier in the week from Winter Storm Uri.  Indeed, they did avoid any real crust from what I saw, so obviously that’s going to help a lot with respect to the quality of the subsurface.  The resort reported 6-8” from that storm, and although there wasn’t a crust, that snow was still dense.  The skiing was indeed fantastic, and as I mentioned, I found as much as 16” of champagne in that area.  Compared to last weekend, one can definitely nitpick a bit on the quality of the powder skiing though.  The most recent snow is so ridiculously light that it’s easy to get down to the dense Winter Storm Uri snow if you’re on more than moderate/blue pitch.  Then you get to that region of dense snow, and if you pressure hard enough, you’ll collapse that layer a bit because the powder below it is less dense.  Essentially, the snowpack’s got an upside down issue with respect to those second and third layers down.

We’re very much talking first-world powder problems here of course, but I figured it would be good to get the beta out there for anyone else thinking of heading out.  Naturally, going as fat as you can will help with respect to staying up in the champagne layer, and heck, if it dumps more tonight, that surface layer of powder will be bolstered to make it even better.

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