wxeyeNH

NNE Cold Season Thread 2020-2021

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@Ginx snewx
 

Do you have any dogs that produce prints this big? Anyone know what this is? They’re like half of the size of my hand. Huge dog? Bobcat? Mountain lion? :lol: :unsure:
 

50AAB60E-5E7F-4DE1-9B5F-58E1DBA06C08.jpeg
EF91187A-B163-4826-B28A-C7C9CFD3CAF0.jpeg

DD0E81EE-1C4B-4B60-9E9C-8806DF5C512F.jpeg

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37 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@Ginx snewx
 

Do you have any dogs that produce prints this big? Anyone know what this is? They’re like half of the size of my hand. Huge dog? Bobcat? Mountain lion? :lol: :unsure:
 

50AAB60E-5E7F-4DE1-9B5F-58E1DBA06C08.jpeg
EF91187A-B163-4826-B28A-C7C9CFD3CAF0.jpeg

DD0E81EE-1C4B-4B60-9E9C-8806DF5C512F.jpeg

You need a Nest Cam so you can rewind and see what is going on!  Just looked on Google.  Coyote?

Step in the right direction for NNE  the storm early next week.  I think the Maine guys have gotten the worst shaft this winter

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48 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@Ginx snewx
 

Do you have any dogs that produce prints this big? Anyone know what this is? They’re like half of the size of my hand. Huge dog? Bobcat? Mountain lion? :lol: :unsure:
 

50AAB60E-5E7F-4DE1-9B5F-58E1DBA06C08.jpeg
EF91187A-B163-4826-B28A-C7C9CFD3CAF0.jpeg

DD0E81EE-1C4B-4B60-9E9C-8806DF5C512F.jpeg

Looks like Coyote or Coydog. Dogs back pads are smaller. Yea my St Bernard Husky has huge paws.

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59 minutes ago, dendrite said:

@Ginx snewx
 

Do you have any dogs that produce prints this big? Anyone know what this is? They’re like half of the size of my hand. Huge dog? Bobcat? Mountain lion? :lol: :unsure:
 

50AAB60E-5E7F-4DE1-9B5F-58E1DBA06C08.jpeg

Definitely a canine.  Could be any number of large breeds... Bernese Mtn Dog are popular breeds these days ha?  Could also certainly be wild coyote if your neighbors don’t have large breed dogs.

Was it circling the chickens?  
 

495F6C67-C7B7-4D98-BF41-E5555140B1AB.jpeg.b5e64cf554237f2a865643b1ed47ce80.jpeg

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Nah it was out front. I was leaning a large dog too because of the nail prints on the toes. 
 

High of 13.5°....coldest so far by a long shot.

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12 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

AMWX emoji record that may stand for a long time...until Phin makes his triumphant return to the mid atl forum...:lol: 

20210129_194409.thumb.jpg.46fd3f16f0090172eba141d9b46e6e0a.jpg

 

I am not as legendary there as Bob Chill. LOL

He is probably the most level-headed and accurate local hobbyist down there. He disappeared for several years after he just became so burned out by the endless misery and missed snow chances. It's very, very hard to maintain an optimistic attitude as a MA snow lover. If he is back for this event, they must be getting hyped. I really hope they don't get another rug pull. 

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2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

You need a Nest Cam so you can rewind and see what is going on!  Just looked on Google.  Coyote?

Step in the right direction for NNE  the storm early next week.  I think the Maine guys have gotten the worst shaft this winter

Yes we have.

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I am not as legendary there as Bob Chill. LOL

He is probably the most level-headed and accurate local hobbyist down there. He disappeared for several years after he just became so burned out by the endless misery and missed snow chances. It's very, very hard to maintain an optimistic attitude as a MA snow lover. If he is back for this event, they must be getting hyped. I really hope they don't get another rug pull. 

You lived it, You know it.................:)

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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I am not as legendary there as Bob Chill. LOL

He is probably the most level-headed and accurate local hobbyist down there. He disappeared for several years after he just became so burned out by the endless misery and missed snow chances. It's very, very hard to maintain an optimistic attitude as a MA snow lover. If he is back for this event, they must be getting hyped. I really hope they don't get another rug pull. 

I know--I'm kidding. Your a little more polarizing than Bob--ha.  I lurked in your guys forum for years in the 2010-2014 range when I lived in southern PA just because it was much more active  than the Philly one and a had a lot of knowledgeable posters--and my climo was similar to those NW burbs.  I loved his posts--like you said very level-headed and also easy to understand for the average weenie. Especially his long range stuff--just remember he was able to simplify it enough really anyone could understand without needing a MET degree.   There were some other good ones too that don't seem to be around anymore.  Also some ones that are still around that I just wasn't fond of their posting style :D

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Not that cold.  2F but 0.5” of arctic sand fell overnight.  Smallest flakes possible but still snowing.  Definitely didn’t let us radiate at all.

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Certainly didnt mind waking up to read this out of ALY:

1) Forecast models have shown a northwestward expansion of snowfall
that encompasses a good portion of the forecast area.

2) Forecast confidence is increasing on the fact that a good portion
of the forecast area will be impacted by this coastal storm.

3) Confidence is increasing that this will be a long-duration
storm with snow coming in as early as Sunday night/Monday
morning and persisting to Wednesday morning/afternoon.
This storm system has overachiever potential given recent model
trends and some of the items mentioned above.

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Event totals: 3.8” Snow/0.14” L.E.

 

The arctic flakes keep rolling along with the moisture on the back end of this system that’s been well off shore.  The models suggest this is likely the last day for these effects though.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 6.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 13.0 inches

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18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

2.3° here. It was -2° last night around 8:00 and then the temp came up a little along with a light breeze. 

I believe the temperature rose overnight here as well. Was -4 around 6pm, but at 6am it was -1.

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Certainly didnt mind waking up to read this out of ALY:

1) Forecast models have shown a northwestward expansion of snowfall
that encompasses a good portion of the forecast area.

2) Forecast confidence is increasing on the fact that a good portion
of the forecast area will be impacted by this coastal storm.

3) Confidence is increasing that this will be a long-duration
storm with snow coming in as early as Sunday night/Monday
morning and persisting to Wednesday morning/afternoon.
This storm system has overachiever potential given recent model
trends and some of the items mentioned above.

Great trends overnight and this morning. 

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42 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Great trends overnight and this morning. 

I saw in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD that they’ve seen some northward shift in the anticipated precipitation for that upcoming system (Winter Storm Orlena).  As always, an important aspect for up here is noting projections for components of the system to move into the Gulf of Maine or the Canadian Maritimes, where they can keep the precipitation going, vs. quickly heading eastward.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

937 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Saturday...The focus for next week continues to be a coastal low that will impact at least portions of the Northeast. There appears to have been a fairly significant northward shift with the precipitation from previous model runs. Main 500mb low now drifts directly over the North Country by Tuesday night, and enhanced lift helps to invigorate low pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine, rather than allowing the more southern low off of the Delmarva to have a more easterly track. Model consensus, including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC now have the warm frontal band of snow lift northward well into central and northern Vermont, accompanied with increasing moisture and good omega in the DGZ. Hence, have increased snow chances to likely for the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. The upper low exits to the east by Wednesday morning, while the surface low(s) move into the Canadian Maritimes. The steadier snow will therefore taper off overnight Tuesday, transitioning to mountain snow showers by Wednesday morning on the favored western slopes as we remain under north-northwest flow. Still a bit early to be talking snow amounts; this system is fairly unorganized with any one of several surface lows having the potential to remain the dominant feature. At this time, several inches of snow does look possible across much of eastern Vermont, but any slight change in upper dynamics and associated surface features could mean more or less snow. Stay tuned for later updates.

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Just now, J.Spin said:

I saw in this morning’s BTV NWS AFD that they’ve seen some northward shift in the anticipated precipitation for that upcoming system (Winter Storm Orlena).  As always, an important aspect for up here is noting projections for components of the system to move into the Gulf of Maine or the Canadian Maritimes, where they can keep the precipitation going, vs. quickly heading eastward.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

937 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 349 AM EST Saturday...The focus for next week continues to be a coastal low that will impact at least portions of the Northeast. There appears to have been a fairly significant northward shift with the precipitation from previous model runs. Main 500mb low now drifts directly over the North Country by Tuesday night, and enhanced lift helps to invigorate low pressure moving into the Gulf of Maine, rather than allowing the more southern low off of the Delmarva to have a more easterly track. Model consensus, including the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC now have the warm frontal band of snow lift northward well into central and northern Vermont, accompanied with increasing moisture and good omega in the DGZ. Hence, have increased snow chances to likely for the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe, especially from the Champlain Valley eastward. The upper low exits to the east by Wednesday morning, while the surface low(s) move into the Canadian Maritimes. The steadier snow will therefore taper off overnight Tuesday, transitioning to mountain snow showers by Wednesday morning on the favored western slopes as we remain under north-northwest flow. Still a bit early to be talking snow amounts; this system is fairly unorganized with any one of several surface lows having the potential to remain the dominant feature. At this time, several inches of snow does look possible across much of eastern Vermont, but any slight change in upper dynamics and associated surface features could mean more or less snow. Stay tuned for later updates.

Aside from the coastal synoptic aspect of this storm, which seems more geared up for over this way than the Northern Greens at the moment, there is indeed a much stronger upslope signal showing up over your way now that the models take the low more north than east up into Maine and eastern Canada. Good trends all around, we will see where the next 48 hours takes us.

The late-week cutter also appears to be fizzling, but still way out there in time.

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