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wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I agree in part. I think with regard to track we are in much better shape in at least having some lead time to spread the word. I first mentioned Isaias to followers ~9 days out. It was just in passing to them but internally I knew that this was at the very least likely to be a long track deal given the upper level pattern. We were at least 4-5 days out when we had increasing confidence that the steering pattern favored a coast runner. Although a landfall pattern up here isn't quite a unicorn, you know the pattern when you see it. We require more for a strike so I think it's easier to see when the players are on the field at a distance.  

Intensity is the concern, especially this year given the level of TCHP we see in the central and western Caribbean where storms can get rocketed northward in October and off the SE coast/Bahamas where August/September climo can favor east coast recurves. That as well as the overall lack of shear consistent with a cool-neutral ENSO. Intensity forecasting is still one of the hardest areas of meteorology. 

With Isaias, there was guidance hinting at the possibility of intensification off the SE coast. The globals (especially the Euro) were late to the game but the hurricane models (HWRF/HMON) ended up doing pretty well with intensity in the 24-36 hours prior to landfall. Even without model consensus, it was clear to me days before that there would be a window, and given the daily convective bursts that were taking place, it seemed pretty easy to me to make an intensification call despite the lazy posts in the main thread during the convective minimums we saw. 

First image below comes from Quincy. I think our worst case scenario is something undergoing RI in the Bahamas/Caribbean or a major undergoing slower than expected weakening as a result of less hostile conditions along the SE coast. In either case, you'd need a system moving very quickly through the region to maintain intensity. 

SSTs/TCHP go a long way to opening a window, but we'll obviously need to see in-situ shear and moisture levels if something is approaching. 

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Great post...very well stated on all points. 

I completely agree too regarding forecast pattern/Isaias. Several days out it was obvious the synoptic pattern was going to be one to favor a track up the east coast. I know we've both talked about this several times but when you see that type of pattern...you can certainly start and raise awareness and emphasis the significance of the pattern. If the pattern looks like crap...99.999% of of the time you can write it off. And this is what pisses me off about weenies on social media...anytime a tropical system emerges you always get posts about "having to watch in SNE"...even though there is zero pattern support. It's crap like that too which lowers people's guard. 

The other big player here with Isaias when Ryan pointed out beautifully was the orientation of the ULJ and the strength of the ULJ...that alone right there was a huge indicator this system was not going to weaken and could even slightly strengthen. 

We definitely would need a very fast moving system to maintain intensity. Now...that's also a terrible thing. Some may think that a fast moving system is a savior but in fact, it's just the opposite. What made the hurricane of 38 so destructive was it's forward speed...not sure many realize how much a fast moving system enhances the wind. You don't need 12-hours of high winds to produce significant damage...let's look at MO/IL/IN yesterday with the derecho. Minutes of winds 70-80-90+ is going to produce significant and widespread damage...especially in our region where trees are weak and building codes aren't much (except maybe for newer buildings). 

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7 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

If/when we get a generator I would set it up to power our well, our fridge, our furnace, and maybe 1 or 2 outlets.   
I’m ballparking $1500 for the generator itself and about the same for an electrician to wire it up correctly.    Sound reasonable?

I still question getting one but we have been dodging bullets since 2008 at my house 

You can get like 6-7kW for $800-$1200 depending on what type.....theres dual fuel ones and ones with bigger starting wattage.......the outdoor connection and wiring to the panel with the transfer switch is like $500.......friend of ours just had electrician over today and they paid him just under $500......cheapest way is the manual transfer switch with like a 30amp or 50amp 120/240 cable between genny and plug......the cable is like $100-$200......I'll be installing this setup before winter after the prices come down from this event.......the power grid is such a shit show.....

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7 hours ago, bobbutts said:

just note that with a portable generator it may not be easy to get it to where the input for the house if there is a bunch of snow or it's in an inconvenient place.  Make sure you don't put it somewhere where it will cause a carbon monoxide problem in the house.

Also those 220v wires you'll use to connect the generator to that are expensive, so it will cost you to have a longer one to work around that.

When I moved in my house was wired already for that stuff, but the spot sucks for rolling out the portable generator especially if there is snowpack.

Ideally you want a standby whole home generator running on natural gas.  I have had my eye on a system like that for awhile but it is really hard pull the trigger on it when other home projects are more urgent.

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

Glad you got your power back. Yea a portable works great to save the food and give you that essential water if you are on a well. Next time MIL might be out. Plus in the winter ya got to have heat

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8 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Same here. House is pre wired for a genny. I’ve been staring at the generac standby’s for over a year now ever since my portable gas genny crapped out on me but with so many other important projects on the table, was hard to justify spending the money for it. Then this happens....but I only lost what I had in the fridge and lived at my mother in laws for 7 days. It’s even harder now to justify the purchase when all things considered, I lost maybe $100 worth of food while my MIL enjoyed having her grandkids for a week. So I may just get another portable for like $500-$1000 for the essentials and call it complete. 

 

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Glad you got your power back. Yea a portable works great to save the food and give you that essential water if you are on a well. Next time MIL might be out. Plus in the winter ya got to have heat

I loved my MIL but the prospect of spending a week at her place would of had me doing anything possible to keep our electricity.

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17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

I loved my MIL but the prospect of spending a week at her place would of had me doing anything possible to keep our electricity.

She feeds me more than my wife does...I may just ‘switch’ women. 

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