Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[psv88]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Right, but if the center tracks over the city or just West, wondering if this is limited to LI?

Always was going to be limited to the island, as usual...

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Always was going to be limited to the island, as usual...

Hate using the NAM for anything tropical, but it does show some intense winds making it fairly far inland.

[NJwx85]

NAM has a fairly intense looking line coming through tonight from South to North. 

[NJwx85]

[forkyfork]

this is a concerning sounding regarding tornado potential

 

[wkd]

24 minutes ago, larrye said:

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

Loads of posters were saying it couldn't hit NJ because of climo, disregarding the fact that a large blocking ridge negated an ots solution.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, larrye said:

Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?

Are 2 tropical  storms within a few weeks a part climo for us ?

Heck , we are always having a hard time getting a tropical storm up here.

[RockawayRowdies]

42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm really not that far inland. If I take a three minute drive down Rt 17 I can see the city.

Loved that hill when driving back from Mahwah to Parkway. Hated being stuck in Pamus 1-2 miles to get on Parkway.

[NYC10023]

28 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Are 2 tropical  storms within a few weeks a part climo for us ?

Heck , we are always having a hard time getting a tropical storm up here.

in 2020 nothing surprises me anymore

[jm1220]

At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”. 

Its insane how this storm will shoot straight north  instead of re curving.

[PB-99]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Its insane how this storm will shoot straight north  instead of re curving.

The jet was always taking this NNE with the WAR sitting there. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

The jet was always taking this NNE with the WAR sitting there. 

War is stronger than what was modeled for this storm last week.

[RockawayRowdies]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

At least the lack of rain East of the center should limit the tree damage somewhat. There’ll definitely be power outages though if the 60+ mph gusts do happen. If you’re expecting over an inch of rain though you’ll be disappointed. Many may not even make it to 0.5”. 

As of right now NWS is expecting 4 inches of rain between today 8 PM and Wednesday 2 PM.

Over 3 inches between 8 AM tomorrow and 2 AM wednesday

[Prue11]

I’m in south central Suffolk hoping the higher winds and gusts stay on the beaches and over water. Really hope we dont lose power 

[MikeS]

NHC has the heaviest rains staying just to our west as of the 11am update:

[Allsnow]

I’m sure it will be impactful for some locations  but I would sell on any big wind threat IMO 

[forkyfork]

i'm fine with not getting 6" of rain

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i'm fine with not getting 6" of rain

Yeah, it’s been clear since yesterday the heaviest of the rain will be in eastern Pa and NW jersey.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’m sure it will be impactful for some locations  but I would sell on any big wind threat IMO 

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

[tek1972]

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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LOL

 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Why would you say that ? The trough is going to ignite this storm up here.

Heaviest rain will be west of the city  and the strongest  winds will be in NYC east.

yes, but it's a quick hitter.   some of the more damaging storms have 30-40 mph winds for hours before the main show arrives-I agree with him-fast moving event with a couple inches of rain on relatively dry ground and a few hours of wind.

[forkyfork]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, it’s been clear since yesterday the heaviest of the rain will be in eastern Pa and NW jersey.

2" from the city west, 4" out toward the western nj counties 

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Why ?

Interaction with the trough will enhance the winds. Some areas will come close to hurricane force wind gusts especially on the coast.

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

For a tropical  storm ?

I will take the over in many spots near the coast.

[Rjay]

13 minutes ago, tek1972 said:

This system looks TERRIBLE. I'm not sold on any gusts much past 50

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This won't be even close to a purely tropical system in our area. 

[NJwx85]

 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Perhaps along the immediate shoreline/eastern LI but I think less then 50 mph for much of the area 

I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. 

This is a well mixed atmosphere. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think so, the new NHC advisory discussion was pretty concerning regarding wind gusts. 

This is a well mixed atmosphere. 

They extended the Tropical Storm Warnings inland