Tropical connection NYC forum area Sun-Wed, 8/2-5/20- Tropical Storm Isaias

[NJsnow89]

Storm looks terrible right now. A lot of dry air. I’m surprised NHC still has this as a hurricane 

[psv88]

14 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Storm looks terrible right now. A lot of dry air. I’m surprised NHC still has this as a hurricane 

Looks like a TD

[MJO812]

2 tropical storms to reach our area within 1 month apart

Amazing

[lee59]

There is southwest shear that is now affecting it and it is moving over Andros Island. It will be over very warm waters tonight and tomorrow and with less shear possible, it could still intensify some. It looks somewhat ragged now but the overall structure is staying in tact according the NHC.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Gfs shifted west when it comes up here

Heaviest rain is west of the city

[forkyfork]

the gfs is one of the last models i'd use

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs shifted west when it comes up here

Heaviest rain is west of the city

So we get better winds?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

So we get better winds?

Meh

[jm1220]

Looks pretty garbage-y on satellite. For me I’m looking to see where the heavy rain axis sets up. There’ll be better winds East of the track but I doubt this will be more than a 60mph TS when it gets here. It may be a 75-80 mph hurricane in NC but shear/dry air won’t be going away as a problem for it. 

[larrye]

21 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the gfs is one of the last models i'd use

Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.

[MJO812]

12 CMC is further west  when it gets up north 

[MJO812]

12z Ukie

[MJO812]

12z Euro

[lee59]

Hurricane coming off Andros Island and it is about 150 miles to Miami. Now that it is over open water, we'll see what happens with intensification.

[Snowlover11]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Hurricane coming off Andros Island and it is about 150 miles to Miami. Now that it is over open water, we'll see what happens with intensification.

tons of shear and dry air wont do much to it for the next 12 hours or so.  might weaken even mote to be honest, it has a chance to strengthen once north of florida if it stays off the coast.

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Hurricane coming off Andros Island and it is about 150 miles to Miami. Now that it is over open water, we'll see what happens with intensification.

Water means very little with the hostile upper air environment

[PB-99]

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

[MJO812]

Just now, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

It looked like it was

The shear is really taking a big toll on the storm

[lee59]

Yes the shear and dry air is no help at all. However the NHC indicated that the shear may not be as bad as originally thought. Anyway, it is not over the Andros Island anymore.

[qg_omega]

59 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

I really thorought a 2 was a layup by now over that 29c water.

Bust.

I will take my 5 inches of rain and root for a spin up tomorrow and Tuesday.

Looks like 2 very active days coming up.

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Looks intense!   LOL  

[PB-99]

23 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Thought it was going to be well away from DR and Cuba decent.

That didn't happen.

[Brian5671]

I doubt it's a hurricane on the next update....

[NJwx85]

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Keep in mind that at least up here, it will be a transitioning system so the fact that it’s a disaster now has little impact on what we can expect here unless it completely dissipates.

heavy rains for sure-maybe some gusty winds, but nothing crazy.   The flooding threat is the big concern for places that get storms tomorrow, the possible PRE and then west of the storm track for the main show...

[Snowlover11]

4-6” of rain is still worrisome, especially if we get a good soaking tomorrow.

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Water temp means little if the storm is getting sheered with dry air aloft

Ehh garbage. May not still be a hurricane. Good news for FL which has enough on its hands already 

[jm1220]

Speaking of which, downgraded to TS at 5pm

[SnoSki14]

Models pretty adamant that this gets a burst of energy once it's shooting up the coast, must be that anomalous jet streak. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see it trend stronger as it comes north, even if it's just inland.