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SchaumburgStormer

August 2020 General Discussion

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Breezy, pleasant afternoon in the mid-60's.  Low's forecast to be in the upper 40's tonight, maybe as low as upper 30's in the favored cool spots if it goes calm. Noticing a few more trees turning... around 5-6 weeks away from avg peak.

1630091926_IMG_0501(2).thumb.JPG.d2711c5fb6a49da9d85b60100587299d.JPG

 

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38 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Breezy, pleasant afternoon in the mid-60's.  Low's forecast to be in the upper 40's tonight, maybe as low as upper 30's in the favored cool spots if it goes calm. Noticing a few more trees turning... around 5-6 weeks away from avg peak.

1630091926_IMG_0501(2).thumb.JPG.d2711c5fb6a49da9d85b60100587299d.JPG

 

Already changing, I am planning on being up there mid September for a social distancing solo vacation. I am looking forward to the colors especially out west.

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14 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Already changing, I am planning on being up there mid September for a social distancing solo vacation. I am looking forward to the colors especially out west.

Interior west spots should be looking pretty good by then. Far southern Houghton county around the Trout Creek area seems to peak the soonest, I've noticed... there's been light frost a couple times in that area already. 

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1 minute ago, weatherbo said:

Interior west spots should be looking pretty good by then. Far southern Houghton county around the Trout Creek area seems to peak the soonest, I've noticed... there's been light frost a couple times in that area already. 

I have it planned out so far to go from Alpena on the 12th to the Soo 13th to Marquette 14th to Houghton 15th and then either through Wisconsin home or though the mitten home by the 19th. Honestly I just need time away being that I haven't been on vacation in 16 months and so I am going to go to the safest place possible, relatively of course.

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Was up in the boundary waters from Wednesday through Sunday.  Got storms both Thursday and Friday night.  Was a fun exercise trying to predict the weather without any technology.  Could feel the LLJ ramping up each evening which was a good tell that storms were inbound. Nothing severe but some heavy rain and a couple hefty wind gusts.  The cold front Saturday morning really brought in some cool temps 

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Heading into the long range, Indianapolis and Dayton are some of those areas that very well usher in September without any 90s this month since late July. The last time Indianapolis didn't reach 90 in August was in 2015 while the last time Dayton didn't was in 2017.
 

 

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NW Lower Mich gets some spectacular conditions this time of year. The lake modifies the CF's just enough to avoid the chilliness felt north of the bridge. It's a tough combination to beat..anywhere

 

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Quite a difference on guidance for the next week.

Euro and EPS have a heat wave, Fri-Wed with near 100° temps on Mon/Tue. On the flip side, the GFS and GEFS are much cooler. GEM is more in between.


.

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22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Quite a difference on guidance for the next week.

Euro and EPS have a heat wave, Fri-Wed with near 100° temps on Mon/Tue. On the flip side, the GFS and GEFS are much cooler. GEM is more in between.


.

Let's try the prolonged extreme heat one more time...........odds on 2-3 days of 90 degrees are the better bet. Stay the course...

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10 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

This is into September, but the 6Z GFS is bringing to 0°F 850 line into the region.  Won't happen, but a sign of things to come.

Model always aggressive on early season cold shots, easiest toss ever.

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Quite a difference on guidance for the next week.

 

Euro and EPS have a heat wave, Fri-Wed with near 100° temps on Mon/Tue. On the flip side, the GFS and GEFS are much cooler. GEM is more in between.

 

 

.

Euro, EPS and GEM are all still onboard for a heat wave from Fri through late next week.

 

 

Euro/GEM both still have a few days near 100° as well.

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4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Euro, EPS and GEM are all still onboard for a heat wave from Fri through late next week.

 

 

Euro/GEM both still have a few days near 100° as well.

Obviously there is more to it than 'it's been dry so it's going to be hot', but combining this with some urban enhancement would raise the possibility of some pretty impressive heat in the Chicago area.

30dPNormMRCC.thumb.png.86e7b4827820c0f9d6a8adc9a7806177.png

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Obviously there is more to it than 'it's been dry so it's going to be hot', but combining this with some urban enhancement would raise the possibility of some pretty impressive heat in the Chicago area.

30dPNormMRCC.thumb.png.86e7b4827820c0f9d6a8adc9a7806177.png

Feedback will definitely help in this case.

 

A more iffy day such as Friday could easily be 90° now, given the feedback and ORD warm bias.

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In the past 30 years, ORD has hit 96+ after August 20 in only 2 years -- September 1990 and August 2013.  

In case anyone was wondering, ORD maxed at 95 during the late September 2017 heat wave.

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GFS/GEFS are really on an island with this one, hell the GEM gets DTW to 100 next week mid week, Euro 97.

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On 8/17/2020 at 9:23 PM, weatherbo said:

Wouldn't take much. I still have warning points from 10 years ago.

Light weight.

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On 8/17/2020 at 6:15 PM, weatherbo said:

Breezy, pleasant afternoon in the mid-60's.  Low's forecast to be in the upper 40's tonight, maybe as low as upper 30's in the favored cool spots if it goes calm. Noticing a few more trees turning... around 5-6 weeks away from avg peak.

1630091926_IMG_0501(2).thumb.JPG.d2711c5fb6a49da9d85b60100587299d.JPG

 

giphy.gif.73a7550561e6d01557c6465cbe74dd59.gif

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Michigan is the only state east of the Rockies whose NWS offices haven’t issued a single tornado warning this year. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.d47a01153904dd878be80519e65a6684.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Michigan is the only state east of the Rockies whose NWS offices haven’t issued a single tornado warning this year. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.d47a01153904dd878be80519e65a6684.jpeg

Im more impressed with Wichita only issuing 2 the entire year to date

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