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August 2020 Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nice break from the excessive heat in the extended

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT. 
And another 2 days later next week with retorch. Not much cooling past this weekend as Tip and a few of us surmised  . And then Katy bar the door end of month into early Sept. You and Cranky alone on a BN island . Good luck friend 

It’s hilarious how any time someone posts about a break from the heat (Dendy even said break from excessive heat), you make it sound like they are calling for a below normal pattern or cold crisp autumn air masses lol.  When I said 70s/50s you made it sound like I was talking about frosts, ha. 

It can just be normal sometimes, as un-exciting as that is.  

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

It’s hilarious how any time someone posts about a break from the heat (Dendy even said break from excessive heat), you make it sound like they are calling for a below normal pattern or cold crisp autumn air masses lol.  When I said 70s/50s you made it sound like I was talking about frosts, ha. 

It can just be normal sometimes, as un-exciting as that is.  

Someday it’ll snap back at least a little the other way. This year will be part of the 91-2020 normals as well. It’ll be fun when an 85/65 day becomes BN at BDL.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Nice break from the excessive heat in the extended

EPS and GEFS 5-day means from 12z Mon to 12z Sat look like a nice stretch.  Doesn’t mean it’s going to be cold, but both ensembles agree on the large scale features of a pleasant week, GEFS are just a touch deeper. 

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9C2CEBEC-AEF4-4EFC-92D5-E3FC4B44552A.thumb.png.a21f845eb313f05f9120cd0797337529.png

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

AWT. 
And another 2 days later next week with retorch. Not much cooling past this weekend as Tip and a few of us surmised  . And then Katy bar the door end of month into early Sept. You and Cranky alone on a BN island . Good luck friend 

image.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

EPS and GEFS 5-day means from 12z Mon to 12z Sat look like a nice stretch.  Doesn’t mean it’s going to be cold, but both ensembles agree on the large scale features of a pleasant week, GEFS are just a touch deeper. 

6EC96D9F-5CC9-4F84-95C3-5CA1DA375979.thumb.png.f6c9d4630ed7e1fbff6ae18e039c376d.png

9C2CEBEC-AEF4-4EFC-92D5-E3FC4B44552A.thumb.png.a21f845eb313f05f9120cd0797337529.png

We tried to tell’em

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Someday it’ll snap back at least a little the other way. This year will be part of the 91-2020 normals as well. It’ll be fun when an 85/65 day becomes BN at BDL.

How much are the normals going to change when 91-20 becomes official? 1.5-2F for most 1st order stations? Or more towards 1F? Guess its going to vary a bit.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How’d that look verify this week ? Prepare for the same back off as we saw 

This week looked hot/warm, the relaxation always started this weekend and next week.  Unless you can find some graphics showing below normal heights were expected this week?  

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4 minutes ago, backedgeapproaching said:

How much are the normals going to change when 91-20 becomes official? 1.5-2F for most 1st order stations? Or more towards 1F? Guess its going to vary a bit.

Good question. Probably not a whole lot. I’d guess more toward 1F and higher on the mins than on the max temps. We’ll be losing a lot of those chilly 80s mins.

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48 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

It’s hilarious how any time someone posts about a break from the heat (Dendy even said break from excessive heat), you make it sound like they are calling for a below normal pattern or cold crisp autumn air masses lol.  When I said 70s/50s you made it sound like I was talking about frosts, ha. 

It can just be normal sometimes, as un-exciting as that is.  

I actually find his obsession with BDL absolutely hilarious in the summer. 

That site is total anathema to him in the winter. Completely ignores it once it turns cold and the narrative needs to be winter. :lol:

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13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually find his obsession with BDL absolutely hilarious in the summer. 

That site is total anathema to him in the winter. Completely ignores it once it turns cold and the narrative needs to be winter. :lol:

Your worst wx yr of your life it seems. Driest and hottest summer on record sandwiched between 2 horrific snow winters at ORH. At least for me, I like HHH summers so the sting of belly to belly ratters offers a fun break in between . I know you haven’t lived there in about 10 years as you’re now on the coastal plain there, but ORH is still in your screen name 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your worst wx yr of your life it seems. Driest and hottest on record sandwiched between 2 horrific snow winters at ORH. At least for me, I like HHH summers so the sting of belly to belly ratters offers a fun break in between 

Yeah this year has def been brutal. Plenty of time to salvage though with a good warm autumn and a fast start to winter in December. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Your worst wx yr of your life it seems. Driest and hottest summer on record sandwiched between 2 horrific snow winters at ORH. At least for me, I like HHH summers so the sting of belly to belly ratters offers a fun break in between . I know you haven’t lived there in about 10 years as you’re now on the coastal plain there, but ORH is still in your screen name 

4 does not equal 18

 

 

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

My buddy in The Mission said San Francisco was over 90 today.  Thats rare. 

Just coming in here to say that...  not very "foggaust" -like there today.

"The coldest winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco" said Samuel Clemens once ...a saying that is well known to the locals around the Bay area.  The climatology is that the local Hadley cell intensifies in late July through early September, and that draws a perpetual marine jet in that keeps the region quite chilly.

Today, they were 100 to 104 at many sites around the Bay and down town, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year there. 

In fact, this ridge in west is extraordinary, with hypsometric heights exceeding 600 dm!!   ...it's the shear exertion of this phenomenon ... so extreme it actually counters said jet and by shear thermal wind component forcing.  Really amazing...

What's interesting is the 00z GFS and the 12Z Euro try to progress this R-wave back east and pulls the heat out with it ...probably would be the last cycle of summer before the hemispheric fold turns the page if so... But it's unstable and new -

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7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I've  probably had 10 90 degree days if that so far this year.. BDL is always on fire

12 here lol.  Not too often I'll say that (I hope), but I'm still fascinated by that.  Given how some other summers this decade have been like pulling teeth to get 90F+ and all the heat maxes out at 85-89F.

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2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Someday it’ll snap back at least a little the other way. This year will be part of the 91-2020 normals as well. It’ll be fun when an 85/65 day becomes BN at BDL.

Depends what we mean by snapping back.  Do we mean like we’re gonna get into an extended period where is below normal? I ... no. Not to be a dink but I‘m doubting that’s happening - we are hockey sticking the climate and people just have to get their heads around we are not turning back -imho   ... Concomitantly with that it gets harder to see the machinery of the atmosphere of the planetary system producing an extended period of below normal blah blah blah beyond so long as humanity continues to pump industrial farts into the environment

I mean sure we can get a day like that here and there because there’s no discounting anomalies. By the way ...look what happened in San Francisco today ... what an alarming heat wave.  - that’s going to put some climo grad student on the map. Special climate report last year just put out precise statistically guided study that showed world over that extreme heat wave frequency is increasing and then this happens… And finally happens in the United States it’s been since what 2012?
 

We’ve been hotter than normal this summer but as usual our hotter than than normal contribution to the global thing has been coming in last place - we’re like the Napolis in the 400 m sprint at the Olympics

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