Tuesday, July 28, 2020 Convective Potential

[weatherwiz]

A cold front is set to move through the region sometime Tuesday. Ahead of the cold front it will be rather hot and humid with temperatures ranging from the mid-to-upper 80's to the mid 90's and dewpoints into the 70's. Not a single person will be walking around without toilet paper stuck to them. Anyways, this isn't a big severe threat...I don't think anyways, but the one thing that interests me is a seasonably strong mid-level jet associated with a large-scale trough digging through the Great Lakes and through New England. The best shear may lag the front but these details can be ironed out as we get closer. Anyways, as it stands right now the potential should arise for the possibility of multiple line segments which will carry the risk for damaging winds depending on how this scenario unfolds. One thing I would like to see is a much stronger shortwave as the main shortwave energy is north into Canada...but forcing from the front, modest shear, and ample CAPE should suffice for some t'storms/severe threat.

[SJonesWX]

stop starting these threads a week in advance and maybe you can make a better prediction than “maybe”.

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

stop starting these threads a week in advance and maybe you can make a better prediction than “maybe”.

It's not a "maybe"...it's weather...there is never any guarantee. In the case of convective forecasting (which is where my biggest strength is in forecasting), I love to start sniffing events up to 7-days out. There is no better way to learn more about weather than to spend time tracking potential through models and then watching everything unfold in real time. About 7-days out if I see any type of synoptic support for convection I'm intrigued and I will follow everyday. 

[Great Snow 1717]

39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

stop starting these threads a week in advance and maybe you can make a better prediction than “maybe”.

Isn't weather always a "maybe" to some degree???

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Isn't weather always a "maybe" to some degree???

I mean pretty much...especially when you're dealing with smaller-scale phenomena like convection. However, even the term "maybe" is not proper...although if you're talking location-specific weather than "maybe" applies. So about Tuesday the only "maybe" is whether location's "A" "B" C" "D" "E", etc. will get a t'storm. However, when assessing the entire region there likely is no "maybe" about it. A cold front is forecast to enter a hot, and humid airmass with sufficient dynamics. There will be t'storms...there will probably be some severe ones. Will everyone get a t'storm? No. Will everyone who gets a t'storm witness severe criteria? No. Will there be t'storms within the region? Yes Will some of those be severe? Probably have a few at least.

[Great Snow 1717]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean pretty much...especially when you're dealing with smaller-scale phenomena like convection. However, even the term "maybe" is not proper...although if you're talking location-specific weather than "maybe" applies. So about Tuesday the only "maybe" is whether location's "A" "B" C" "D" "E", etc. will get a t'storm. However, when assessing the entire region there likely is no "maybe" about it. A cold front is forecast to enter a hot, and humid airmass with sufficient dynamics. There will be t'storms...there will probably be some severe ones. Will everyone get a t'storm? No. Will everyone who gets a t'storm witness severe criteria? No. Will there be t'storms within the region? Yes Will some of those be severe? Probably have a few at least.

It is what makes weather so interesting. 

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is what makes weather so interesting. 

Exactly...and it's really how you learn/understand and developing forecasting skill and try to improve accuracy. Not to mention raise awareness when needed.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Exactly...and it's really how you learn/understand and developing forecasting skill and try to improve accuracy. Not to mention raise awareness when needed.

At some point I'd like to hear your thoughts on the TS/hurricane drought in New England but that is for a different thread. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[Cyclone-68]

I love these threads. It gives me something to look forward too 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

At some point I'd like to hear your thoughts on the TS/hurricane drought in New England but that is for a different thread. 

ehhh not like this thread will see much action for a while lol. 

Tropical is probably my least knowledgeable part of meteorology but I think this drought is a little bit "scary". I say this for a few reasons;

1) Thinking about how low people's guards are here...hopefully (in a way) Irene/Sandy gave people an idea of just how bad things can be here should we get hit hard. but my worry is people may not just take the situation seriously...and in a way you can't really blame them. We've all seen through photos and videos of just how destructive they can be, but unless you have witnessed this in person sometimes it's difficult to fully grasp/understand just how real it can be. For example, the October snowstorm in 2011...I think many of us had an idea of how bad it would be but I don't think many knew it would be THAT bad...I think part of that is how many of us actually been through a scenario like that....heavy, wet snow with fully leaved trees? 

2) Population increase/build-up along coastal communities. Coastal CT, RI, even SE MA has become very wealthy...the size of the houses are nuts! I also believe, the majority of the population lives within this corridor? This area is almost like a ticking time bomb. Hell, many areas along coastal CT alone were like demolished...and people re-built...on the same spot. 

3) People not taking forecasts seriously in the event there is a significant threat (and it pans out). By the time people were to probably realize it would be too late to act. 

In terms of like the meteorological sense It just goes to show how difficult it is to get a system to directly hit us. It takes a very special type of pattern with everything coming together almost perfectly. This is something which can go into my point 3 above. Anytime models show some type of system into New England there goes social media blowing up and it starts spreading in the news...but if you were to really look at it...if the pattern does not support it, it is not going to happen. There do seem to be periods (years or even decades) though where we seem to get hit more than others and this can probably tie into global oscillations/patterns where despite your short-term variance, over the course of the longer-term you'll typically get a specific pattern regime (similar to say our snow climo and why some decades are better than others)  

[Chrisrotary12]

If Wiz can start a convective thread 7 days in advance, can we start a tropical threat thread 10-14 days in advance. Asking for a friend? 

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh not like this thread will see much action for a while lol. 

Tropical is probably my least knowledgeable part of meteorology but I think this drought is a little bit "scary". I say this for a few reasons;

1) Thinking about how low people's guards are here...hopefully (in a way) Irene/Sandy gave people an idea of just how bad things can be here should we get hit hard. but my worry is people may not just take the situation seriously...and in a way you can't really blame them. We've all seen through photos and videos of just how destructive they can be, but unless you have witnessed this in person sometimes it's difficult to fully grasp/understand just how real it can be. For example, the October snowstorm in 2011...I think many of us had an idea of how bad it would be but I don't think many knew it would be THAT bad...I think part of that is how many of us actually been through a scenario like that....heavy, wet snow with fully leaved trees? 

2) Population increase/build-up along coastal communities. Coastal CT, RI, even SE MA has become very wealthy...the size of the houses are nuts! I also believe, the majority of the population lives within this corridor? This area is almost like a ticking time bomb. Hell, many areas along coastal CT alone were like demolished...and people re-built...on the same spot. 

3) People not taking forecasts seriously in the event there is a significant threat (and it pans out). By the time people were to probably realize it would be too late to act. 

In terms of like the meteorological sense It just goes to show how difficult it is to get a system to directly hit us. It takes a very special type of pattern with everything coming together almost perfectly. This is something which can go into my point 3 above. Anytime models show some type of system into New England there goes social media blowing up and it starts spreading in the news...but if you were to really look at it...if the pattern does not support it, it is not going to happen. There do seem to be periods (years or even decades) though where we seem to get hit more than others and this can probably tie into global oscillations/patterns where despite your short-term variance, over the course of the longer-term you'll typically get a specific pattern regime (similar to say our snow climo and why some decades are better than others)  

I've never understood why some people want to experience a hurricane on the scale of the  1938 hurricane. . The devastation would be unimaginable. People complained about being locked down during the Covid-19 situation. The aftermath and quality of life following a hurricane similar to the one in  38 would make the lockdown seem as if it was some very minor inconvenience. 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

If Wiz can start a convective thread 7 days in advance, can we start a tropical threat thread 10-14 days in advance. Asking for a friend? 

Sure, why not? Better to discuss possibilities than posting temp and dew point. 

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've never understood why some people want to experience a hurricane on the scale of the  1938 hurricane. . The devastation would be unimaginable. People complained about being locked down during the Covid-19 situation. The aftermath and quality of life following a hurricane similar to the one in  38 would make the lockdown seem as if it was some very minor inconvenience. 

yeah me either. I mean I love intense weather (just don't want to see property damaged or lives lost) but an exact repeat of 38 would be beyond devastating on so many levels. People want to talk about COVID changing our lives...ha a 38 repeat says hold my beer

[MaineJayhawk]

2 hours ago, SJonesWX said:

stop starting these threads a week in advance and maybe you can make a better prediction than “maybe”.

Isn't next Tuesday four days from now?

[kdxken]

45 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Sure, why not? Better to discuss possibilities than posting temp and dew point. 

And the ever fascinating rainfall deficit

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, kdxken said:

And the ever fascinating rainfall deficit

There is no drought of drought discussion

[Torch Tiger]

Summer of 2020 anything is possible. Hopefully two '38s back to back...after a good tornado outbreak of course

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

Summer of 2020 anything is possible. Hopefully two '38s back to back...after a good tornado outbreak of course

Kate Upton???

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

None of us are here because we’re dying to talk about seeing 70 and sun in perpetuity. To an extent, we are all fascinated by extreme weather and some want to experience it.

It’s obviously a fine line. I love tropical. I wake up at odd hours to track it and chase it, but I’m not going to root to see a cat 5 plow into Miami. We don’t control the wx though so we work with what we’ve got. We can like the extremes but we should remember that it doesn’t occur in a vacuum. 

Yeah no doubt, a high-end cat. 4 into Miami would do. 

[wxeyeNH]

A few thoughts on different subjects.

Getting dry in my town of Bridgewater NH.  Only .25" from the convection.  Training convection just north of me produced lots of qpf in Plymouth NH

I like these treads of potentials even if they are several days yonder.  Always something to look for

Speaking of convection take a look at the picture below.  A Met friend in Tennessee took it yesterday.  A hot tower rapidly building.  Pushed the contrail up in elevation before the cap cloud even got there even though it was clear air.

As far as tropical systems go up here.  West of the track is more noreasterish with flooding potential.  To see a big wind event you need a strong trof just west of us to yank it north quick with the center passing west.  

 

[yoda]

@weatherwiz does not like MRGL risk

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks like a dry fropa 

[Torch Tiger]

Wild day? Mild day? Discuss the possible impacts

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Torch Tiger]

Looks okay, maybe an upgrade to slght needed

[weatherwiz]

the warm mid-levels/weak lapse rates will certainly hinder overall potential. With that said, there should be a few line segments which produced localized damaging wind gusts.

[Damage In Tolland]

Horrific mid level lapse rates 

[Bostonseminole]

HRRR does not look bad up here.