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CAPE

Winter 2020-21 Discussion

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30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Cold powder with no mixing worries along/east of 95 with any storm in winter is a blessing, especially pre-Christmas.

Underscores the importance of a sustained -AO/NAO in setting us up for the perfect storm track, with easy access to fresh cold air. The rest was due to the pronounced STJ, courtesy of the moderate Nino.

Memories...

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51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Underscores the importance of a sustained -AO/NAO in setting us up for the perfect storm track, with easy access to fresh cold air. The rest was due to the pronounced STJ, courtesy of the moderate Nino.

Memories...

That was the first year I started tracking storms on models and I remember thinking “geesh, what’s so hard about this...we keep getting perfect storm setups”.  

Ahhh - then reality set up in subsequent winters...

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

That was the first year I started tracking storms on models and I remember thinking “geesh, what’s so hard about this...we keep getting perfect storm setups”.  

Ahhh - then reality set up in subsequent winters...

It did seem so easy. It was like the inverse of what we typically see. Temps would start off marginal than get colder as the snow fell. (-AO/NAO)

The exception was the late Jan cold powder moderate event with temps in the mid teens. I loved that one, as it ended the "snow drought" and we could see the potential in the LR for what was to come in Feb.

That was one winter where "we"(relatively speaking) actually worked. lol.

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5 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 

I don't remember much help in the atlantic side that winter - it was a unusual pac driven winter.  As you recall, nearly all of the LR forecasts (including CWG) called for a mild winter that year.  It was a rare example of things going the opposite of all the consensus thinking which, like today, had us mostly convinced winter is over before it ever gets started.

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52 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

I don't remember much help in the atlantic side that winter - it was a unusual pac driven winter.  As you recall, nearly all of the LR forecasts (including CWG) called for a mild winter that year.  It was a rare example of things going the opposite of all the consensus thinking which, like today, had us mostly convinced winter is over before it ever gets started.

Yeah it was EPO/WPO driven. The AO/NAO was predominantly positive to neutral at times.

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. 1999-2000.

Ohhh right right, I’m mixing up the years. Still remember Jan 25 that year but not much else. I left in the evening to a WWF event of all things and TWC saying storm is shifting west. Came home around 11 to a winter storm warning for 6-12 and tried staying awake for the first flakes...checking the radar at every 8 on the clock on the local forecast...such a dork haha. Of course I passed out, but caught the tail end of the heavy stuff before the dry slot. 

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The GEFS extended range continues to advertise some improvement in the high latitudes for mid to late November. We shall see how this works out, but if there is to be some semblance of a -AO/NAO as we head into December, we should continue to see indications on guidance over the next few weeks.

gfs-ens_mslpaMean_nhem_25.png

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23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The GEFS extended range continues to advertise some improvement in the high latitudes for mid to late November. We shall see how this works out, but if there is to be some semblance of a -AO/NAO as we head into December, we should continue to see indications on guidance over the next few weeks.

 

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov.  Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously.

I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern.  If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

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34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I thought the EPS showed some glimmers of things trending the right way as we near the middle of Nov.  Maybe starting with the Pac....all caveats, obviously.

I am willing to kick the can a little down the road with any decent pattern.  If we truly end up with a front loaded winter...I dont want to waste our only HLB on mid/late Nov.

Yeah I am just looking for hints as we head towards December. There are some thoughts that the first part of winter may favor higher h5 heights up top,  while the PAC hasn't gone full puke mode yet. CFS doesn't have a particularly favorable AO/NAO, but hints at a ridge over/north of AK for Dec and Jan.

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I would not be surprised if the only decent snow that happens goes way south and misses us giving NC some snow... just because why not. Let’s hope 2021 is a little more friendly. We need some friendly flakes every once in awhile...

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4 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I would not be surprised if the only decent snow that happens goes way south and misses us giving NC some snow... just because why not. Let’s hope 2021 is a little more friendly. We need some friendly flakes every once in awhile...

Me too. Here’s my winter snowfall map for the area ..EF27B84B-6090-4C50-8004-0FB57389EF3A.thumb.jpeg.c6f9192b0a7d9904228bb060b52a6f00.jpeg

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

Not unrealistic in a Nina.

I think that looks like a few years ago when we were in the screw zone during a la Nina. We missed north and south that year.

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think that looks like a few years ago when we were in the screw zone during a la Nina. We missed north and south that year.

And what's really frustrating is that we had to roll a nina AGAIN...twice in 4 years...right after a neutral year where the AO/NAO was record positive, smh Man I hope we can fluke/anomaly something this year...because I'm wondering if, with a nina this strong (or is it moderate), it won't leak over into the following winter as well...(can't imagine the numbers of the winter following a la nina are spectacular)

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23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I still think we’ll ‘luck’ into a storm this year even if the indices say we’re fooked...its hard to have two back to back abysmal winters.  

WDI 

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41 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I still think we’ll ‘luck’ into a storm this year even if the indices say we’re fooked...its hard to have two back to back abysmal winters.  

I like the positivity!

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Continuing to monitor trends in the LR guidance for HL +height anomalies, because it may be the only thing that can save us, along with some semblance of a decent Pacific for a time. Below is the extended GEFS for a month out- towards the end of November, and below that is the Euro(weekies) for approximately the same time period off of the free site. Crappy graphics but I think you can see the look is very similar, and would be an acceptable one heading towards Dec.

323245819_gefsblock.thumb.png.a0937935387bfc18cf1098670d742762.png

arctic.png.6838bfcc815974ea382f9fc92652107f.png

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Continuing to monitor trends in the LR guidance for HL +height anomalies, because it may be the only thing that can save us, along with some semblance of a decent Pacific for a time. Below is the extended GEFS for a month out- towards the end of November, and below that is the Euro(weekies) for approximately the same time period off of the free site. Crappy graphics but I think you can see the look is very similar, and would be an acceptable one heading towards Dec.

323245819_gefsblock.thumb.png.a0937935387bfc18cf1098670d742762.png

arctic.png.6838bfcc815974ea382f9fc92652107f.png

Presently the polar vortex is strengthening but hopefully by the third week of November there are some signs that this may change - highly speculative the latest models from the GEFS shows the strengthening of the polar vortex currently. Actually some modeling posted by Simon at his strat site indicates a strong(er) pv for the next 46 days, which fits the seasonal models.

Dr. Amy Butler posted a cool scatter plot which shows in a Nina you can certainly have pv disruptions. And like the NAO hard to predict with skill. 

 

  

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

Presently the polar vortex is strengthening but hopefully by the third week of November there are some signs that this may change - highly speculative the latest models from the GEFS shows the strengthening of the polar vortex currently. Actually some modeling posted by Simon at his strat site indicates a strong(er) pv for the next 46 days, which fits the seasonal models.

Dr. Amy Butler posted a cool scatter plot which shows in a Nina you can certainly have pv disruptions. And like the NAO hard to predict with skill. 

 

The transfer of heat from the equatorial regions to the high latitudes is necessary to build anomalous heights there/warm the upper atmosphere and potentially weaken/disrupt the SPV, so it makes sense there is a  connection between the MJO and the AO. The QBO also has an impact as a modulator, and even though it is currently positive, it is only weakly so at this point. I don't know enough about the intricacies of the processes involved and the tendencies (eg location and magnitude of tropical forcing, ENSO state, QBO phase, etc). Above my pay grade. It's interesting, so keep us updated with the techno geek discussions on SW potential.

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56 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The transfer of heat from the equatorial regions to the high latitudes is necessary to build anomalous heights there/warm the upper atmosphere and potentially weaken/disrupt the SPV, so it makes sense there is a  connection between the MJO and the AO. The QBO also has an impact as a modulator, and even though it is currently positive, it is only weakly so at this point. I don't know enough about the intricacies of the processes involved and the tendencies (eg location and magnitude of tropical forcing, ENSO state, QBO phase, etc). Above my pay grade. It's interesting, so keep us updated with the techno geek discussions on SW potential.

There was a study published years ago that found that a positive QBO becomes a problem for high latitude blocking once it gets over +10 (don’t quote me but I believe that was the threshold given) during the winter months. The stronger the +QBO gets, the more it promotes strong westerlies/zonal flow

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

There was a study published years ago that found that a positive QBO becomes a problem for high latitude blocking once it gets over +10 (don’t quote me but I believe that was the threshold given) during the winter months. The stronger the +QBO gets, the more it promotes strong westerlies/zonal flow

I'm good with QBO 101. But thanks.

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2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

@CAPE @nj2va @yoda if you guys could choose would you prefer a front loaded or back loaded winter if given the opportunity to pick? 

front loaded especially if it means a white Christmas.  Delayed usually means denied around here :P 

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

front loaded especially if it means a white Christmas.  Delayed usually means denied around here :P 

I would take it because its pretty rare, and getting cold and and snow when the days are the shortest is cool.

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