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Chicago Storm

July 2020 General Discussion

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The GFS has part of central Kansas and Nebraska approaching 120º next weekend.  That's unreal.

It has my area struggling to get above 90º most days.

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4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS has part of central Kansas and Nebraska approaching 120º next weekend.  That's unreal.

It has my area struggling to get above 90º most days.

The tradeoff is that the steroid dews come in especially next weekend. 

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91 with a dew of 70 back in Minnesota.

Made the decision yesterday to drive six hours southeast to Highland Park IL for some lake cooled air and to visit friends. Crazy how much nicer dews in the mid 60s feel. 

Happy Independence Day everyone!

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It seems a little dryer here today compared to yesterday with a better east wind again.  Don't know if there was a little bit of a backdoor coldfront push as it's actually little cooler as well.  It's only 86 whereas yesterday it was already 90 at this time.  Maybe it's also the band of high clouds overhead right now throwing the forecast off, but I don't think it will reach low 90s today, even with lower dewpoints.

It was annoying how the very weak lake breeze just seemed to add humidity without really cooling it off at all the past couple days.  Dewpoint somehow managed to creep up to 70 in the narrow little lake breeze convergence zone, along with low 90s temps.  Heat index was definitely worse than forecast due to lake breeze.

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36 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

91 with a dew of 70 back in Minnesota.

Made the decision yesterday to drive six hours southeast to Highland Park IL for some lake cooled air and to visit friends. Crazy how much nicer dews in the mid 60s feel. 

Happy Independence Day everyone!

It seems Lake Michigan has already warmed to the point where it's adding humidity to the air.  The wind switch from easterly to northwesterly added a decided amount of humidity without knocking the temperature down much at all.

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4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Come on, ring of fire...

SPC 4-8 outlook sounds like they expect most of it to be along/north of the international border, which figures.

Hope models are wrong.  There is an annoying tendency for the ring of fire to skip Michigan completely.  No guarantee it will even rain here significantly any time in the next week.  Nothing sucks more than a dry cold front after a scorching heat wave. 

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24 minutes ago, frostfern said:

Hope models are wrong.  There is an annoying tendency for the ring of fire to skip Michigan completely.  No guarantee it will even rain here significantly any time in the next week.  Nothing sucks more than a dry cold front after a scorching heat wave. 

Indications suggest this time may be different.

The long range pattern isn't looking too dissimilar from 1995 and 2012.

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16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Indications suggest this time may be different.

The long range pattern isn't looking too dissimilar from 1995 and 2012.

1995 :D, 2012 :thumbsdown:.

I was only 9 in 1995 but remember it being a very stormy summer. 2012 OTH was unrelenting hot and maddeningly quiet.

1995 also had a very busy spring tornado season leading into the summer heatwave (including the early June Texas Panhandle outbreaks). Which as we know this year has not featured.

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14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Indications suggest this time may be different.

The long range pattern isn't looking too dissimilar from 1995 and 2012.

Well, a lot of places will need a good rain, especially the southeastern part of the state.  2012 was very very dry into August.  There was a derecho around the 4th, but it missed most places to the south.  There was spotty severe weather (some large hail), but significant rainfall was scattered at best.

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ORD 89’d so far today, and back down to 88 this hour.

Looking like a miss.


.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD 89’d so far today, and back down to 88 this hour.

Looking like a miss.


.

That would suck.  Maybe should've stuck with my original feeling lol

Hopefully there was a quick 90 intrahour before it dropped.  

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That would suck.  Maybe should've stuck with my original feeling lol
Hopefully there was a quick 90 intrahour before it dropped.  

I’m guessing unlikely. Temp was only 89 still for a short time after 1pm.

A good streak through this all will be hard, but at least we’ll rack up 90+ days overall.


.

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Be something if those region wide dews well into the 80s verified starting next weekend lasting til end of the run. GFS often has that bias but dont remember seeing that long duration consistently modeled

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11 hours ago, Stebo said:
Monday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 97.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Wednesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 74.
Thursday
Sunny and hot, with a high near 96.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 75.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 96.
 
:maphot::maphot::maphot::maphot::maphot:
 
A week of that type of heat is pretty wild.

Why are there no head advisories out?

For GRR it use to be 3 days over 90 for a heat advisory. I'm confused.

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I’m guessing unlikely. Temp was only 89 still for a short time after 1pm.

A good streak through this all will be hard, but at least we’ll rack up 90+ days overall.


.

Most 90 degree days in a calendar month in Chicago is 19, set in July 1955 and July 1987.

fwiw, the record longest 89+ degree streak (lol) is 13 days.

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8 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

Why are there no head advisories out?

For GRR it use to be 3 days over 90 for a heat advisory. I'm confused.

This morning's AFD mentions there will likely be a need for Heat Advisories this upcoming week.

That said, for now, the humidity has been manageable which is keeping heat indices in check. 

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Most 90 degree days in a calendar month in Chicago is 19, set in July 1955 and July 1987.
fwiw, the record longest 89+ degree streak (lol) is 13 days.

6 deep into that 13 consecutive streak.

Let’s do it.


.

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This is what a typical lawn looks like here. Sodded 2+ years ago. Only thing green are weeds. 

Low to mid 90s next week. Chance of rain next Friday. 

Drought is the theme here. But heat is making a run for it. 

B6AA8952-F57A-4EED-884B-DD9C63B3B7B9.jpeg

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52 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


I’m guessing unlikely. Temp was only 89 still for a short time after 1pm.

A good streak through this all will be hard, but at least we’ll rack up 90+ days overall.


.

I don't think it's going to get to 90 here today either.  There's definitely some kind of very weak back-door cold front here that the models didn't emphasize enough.  The easterlies brought in an airmass that's a few degrees cooler and also a few degrees dryer (dewpoints dropping down into the lower 60s).  There's even some pop-up storms in the far SW corner where this little weak backdoor front is converging with the lake breeze.

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21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


6 deep into that 13 consecutive streak.

Let’s do it.


.

The historical heat streaks for Chicago are actually kind of pathetic.  And it's not all explained by the official observation site being closer to the lake in early decades.  Even when you look at farther inland observation sites like Midway and O'Hare, regardless of whether or not they were the official ob site at the time, the streaks aren't that impressive.  

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Spectacular day out on the island, got a bit of a breeze off the water right now so it's closer to 90 instead of above.

20200704_164702.jpg

 

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The historical heat streaks for Chicago are actually kind of pathetic.  And it's not all explained by the official observation site being closer to the lake in early decades.  Even when you look at farther inland observation sites like Midway and O'Hare, regardless of whether or not they were the official ob site at the time, the streaks aren't that impressive.  

Interesting. I never would have guessed that would have been the case.


.

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Interesting. I never would have guessed that would have been the case.


.

Case in point

Longest official 90+ degree streak for Chicago:  11 days (4 times)

 

Longest 90+ streak at O'Hare airport (records back to 1958):  10 days, 7/17/1987 through 7/26/1987

Longest 90+ streak at Midway airport (records back to 1928):  12 days, 7/6/1936 through 7/17/1936

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3 hours ago, frostfern said:

Hope models are wrong.  There is an annoying tendency for the ring of fire to skip Michigan completely.  No guarantee it will even rain here significantly any time in the next week.  Nothing sucks more than a dry cold front after a scorching heat wave. 

That was 2011 and 2012 (along with the couple heatwaves in 2013) here in a nutshell.  Hope things don’t go back to that because it’s been awhile since that kind of setup.

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