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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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3 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Last month Johnstown came in with the least cumulative precipitation in the state (0.96”) which shows how dry it’s been your way.  I had 1.17” which wasn’t too far behind but with higher temps, may have been a higher impact 

That region of the Laurel's has definitely reversed that trend in the last few days, especially just south of JST in parts of Somerset County as we've had a more favorable setup for pop up afternoon storms. One of the first places they fire on hot/humid days around here is typically along those ridges in the Laurels. The late afternoon storms that triggered a flash flood warning in a portion of Somerset earlier (couple spots of 3-4" on the doppler estimate) were on the heels of the same general area getting a similar blob of slow moving storms and scattered areas of 2-3+ totals on the doppler estimates just the other day.

Meanwhile down here, no dice again this evening. All around and not here. My yard is still in ok-ish shape, but we need hit with something in the next few days. 

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I can't seem to get a good grip on what this potential tropical system is going to do. The NAM seems to want to keep it east of the Delaware river now, while the GFS now is bringing decent rains into Eastern PA. The Euro from 0z looks like the NAM and the Canadians were always OTS.

 

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20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Good.  This far west?

Not really for us. Mostly east of the Susq.  Euro shows basically no rain (other than anecdotal stuff)  West of the Susq out to just before South Western PA for over a week from today.     GFS shows us getting a inch or less of rain through July 25th.  

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14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not really for us. Mostly east of the Susq.  Euro shows basically no rain (other than anecdotal stuff)  West of the Susq out to just before South Western PA for over a week from today.     GFS shows us getting a inch or less of rain through July 25th.  

wow

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not really for us. Mostly east of the Susq.  Euro shows basically no rain (other than anecdotal stuff)  West of the Susq out to just before South Western PA for over a week from today.     GFS shows us getting a inch or less of rain through July 25th.  

No thanks.    

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4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

wow

384 map.  All the rain in the Blue for S Central PA is hope and pray showers.  Seems maybe 1.5" or less is a better way to say it when I look at it closeup  Either way a disaster. 

image.thumb.png.7cbede84937f36c348a9dab00d20140a.png

 

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16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

384 map.  All the rain in the Blue for S Central PA is hope and pray showers.  Seems maybe 1.5" or less is a better way to say it when I look at it closeup  Either way a disaster. 

image.thumb.png.7cbede84937f36c348a9dab00d20140a.png

 

The nice thing about models is next cycle it will have a new look and next run after that will be a different look.   

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1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The nice thing about models is next cycle it will have a new look and next run after that will be a different look.   

Yea, not buying into anything past this weekend but not thinking we get much this weekend.  Just talked to the guy who sprays our yard and he is shutting down for the next 1-2 months.  Cannot spray grass that is dormant and brown. 

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, not buying into anything past this weekend but not thinking we get much this weekend.  Just talked to the guy who sprays our yard and he is shutting down for the next 1-2 months.  Cannot spray grass that is dormant and brown. 

fwiw 18z nam just ticked notably west w/ qpf field for this weekend.  no drenching rains, but maybe enough for much of the eastern 1/3 of pa to get some lawn love from above.  .3-.5 west to east around philly before it ramps up notably.  

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3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

fwiw 18z nam just ticked notably west w/ qpf field for this weekend.  no drenching rains, but maybe enough for much of the eastern 1/3 of pa to get some lawn love from above.  .3-.5 west to east around philly before it ramps up notably.  

I will be able to tell who gets lawn love by the grass stains.   A good old fashioned deformation band on the 18z Nam.  We get one of those and Cash will be golden.  They find his locale every time.   How much for Philly?  0 on the Nam.  Dry-slotted! 

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My guess of 97 won!! Highest temp in 25 years!!

High of 97 today at #Buffalo not only smashes previous record for this date (92 last set in 1988), but is tied for 3rd highest temp on record for any day. Last time we were this warm was July 15th 1995. #nywx

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My guess of 97 won!! Highest temp in 25 years!!

High of 97 today at #Buffalo not only smashes previous record for this date (92 last set in 1988), but is tied for 3rd highest temp on record for any day. Last time we were this warm was July 15th 1995. #nywx

No fake snow today! 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I will be able to tell who gets lawn love by the grass stains.   A good old fashioned deformation band on the 18z Nam.  We get one of those and Cash will be golden.  They find his locale every time.   How much for Philly?  0 on the Nam.  Dry-slotted! 

Glad this is not WINTER or I would be pissed right now. LOL. 

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Just now, paweather said:

Nice. I feel like we are talking Winter here even in the Summer now. I like it. 

Icon is on board with the def band albeit it less overall qpf. 

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Have a good evening all. To say I am posting in July this is a first for me but hey it is 2020. Why not? My poor grass does need to some wetness. I might even get into Hurricane season as that season intensifies. Maybe I will become a more all around weather hobbyists, I don't know. Or this posting is just the lack of posting to such a poor winter of posting. :-)  

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18 minutes ago, paweather said:

Have a good evening all. To say I am posting in July this is a first for me but hey it is 2020. Why not? My poor grass does need to some wetness. I might even get into Hurricane season as that season intensifies. Maybe I will become a more all around weather hobbyists, I don't know. Or this posting is just the lack of posting to such a poor winter of posting. :-)  

I am posting more this summer as well.  Extreme weather draws me out and this drought has been a doozy.  Worse than the one we had last year now.     Do not know exactly where Mag lives but near him has been expanded into D1.  I realize these maps are regional based but my specific area is easily a D1 at this point pushing D2.   If the 12Z GFS is right we we have doubt digit deficits for the year  by months end.  Hopefully not.

 

 

 

 

 

image.png

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2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

The nice thing about models is next cycle it will have a new look and next run after that will be a different look.   

The GFS already has more qpf for us by this Monday, on the 18Z run, than the entire 12Z run combined. 

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On 7/8/2020 at 2:24 PM, Voyager said:

Today's total (so far)

FB_IMG_1594232570769.jpg

That weather gauge looks pretty nice, what make is that?

Also picked up 0.42" last evening with the storms rolling through.

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