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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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8 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, You would be out of business quickly as a weather forecaster if you only used the NAM !

 

After comparing apparent weather with forecasted weather, over the last 5 days in the LSV, I think the bar is set pretty low for who can or cannot make it in forecasting. 

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8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I agree with all of what you are saying. I truly do. What I  was referring to, and what makes no sense to me, is posting a snow map that shows 9" over my house when a storm is tracking over Detroit and lacking CAD. It ain't happening.

 

This is an interesting topic.  If this were an NWS sponsored discussion forum the fantasy snowstorm maps would certainly not have a place.  But sometimes it actually seems like finding the one model still on board for a snow storm, 6 days out, lifts the boards spirits and may do some actual good as it pertains to attitudes.  But yea for someone who wants to discuss the ins and outs of actual weather the fantasy maps can take away from serious discussion.

I look at the MA LR thread as a sort of barometer.  There is LOTS of technical, official sounding discussion over there but some of the folks that do that are among the worst forecasters on the board because they are looking for nuggets and take stands on risky, yet popular, theories that very often fail to materialize.  A real forecaster cannot do that.  The general public could care less if you were the one to call the 93 Blizzard two weeks out.  They want to know what the weather will be today. 

 

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This is an interesting topic.  If this were an NWS sponsored discussion forum the fantasy snowstorm maps would certainly not have a place.  But sometimes it actually seems like finding the one model still on board for a snow storm, 6 days out, lifts the boards spirits and may do some actual good as it pertains to attitudes.  But yea for someone who wants to discuss the ins and outs of actual weather the fantasy maps can take away from serious discussion.

I look at the MA LR thread as a sort of barometer.  There is LOTS of technical, official sounding discussion over there but some of the folks that do that are the worst forecasters on the board because they are looking for nuggets and take stands on risky, yet popular, theories that very often fail to materialize.  A real forecaster cannot do that.  The general public could care less if you were the one to call the 93 Blizzard two weeks out.  They want to know what the weather will be today. 

 

I would love if we could get a little more in depth and technical info on this board like some of the better posters do in Mid Atlantic board. @pasnownut strays there in Winter and occasionally posts there because he also has a hunger for more quality information. I lurk in their Winter long range thread all of the time to see their thoughts and analysis, especially @Bob Chill , @psuhoffman , @CAPE the guy from Hanover(for some reason I cannot remember his handle now) and some others. 

I think it’s important to look at all of the possibilities and also give a little reasoning behind the thoughts that are posted. It is also lots of fun to post about “trees down on Front St. in Harrisburg” or “Tamaqua got fringed again”.

Sometimes it is fun to post some long range snow maps to boost morale, but mostly that is just for entertainment and should not be taken as an actual forecast!

Thank goodness we have  @MAG5035 

He is one of the best posters on this entire website!

Hopefully we get good pattern discussions going in here and share some good quality info this season while having lots of fun along the way!

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would love if we could get a little more in depth and technical info on this board like some of the better posters do in Mid Atlantic board. @pasnownut strays there in Winter and occasionally posts there because he also has a hunger for more quality information. I lurk in their Winter long range thread all of the time to see their thoughts and analysis, especially @Bob Chill , @psuhoffman , @CAPE the guy from Hanover(for some reason I cannot remember his handle now) and some others. 

I think it’s important to look at all of the possibilities and also give a little reasoning behind the thoughts that are posted. It is also lots of fun to post about “trees down on Front St. in Harrisburg” or “Tamaqua got fringed again”.

Sometimes it is fun to post some long range snow maps to boost morale, but mostly that is just for entertainment and should not be taken as an actual forecast!

Thank goodness we have  @MAG5035 

He is one of the best posters on this entire website!

Hopefully we get good pattern discussions going in here and share some good quality info this season while having lots of fun along the way!

@showmethesnow

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I would love if we could get a little more in depth and technical info on this board like some of the better posters do in Mid Atlantic board. @pasnownut strays there in Winter and occasionally posts there because he also has a hunger for more quality information. I lurk in their Winter long range thread all of the time to see their thoughts and analysis, especially @Bob Chill , @psuhoffman , @CAPE the guy from Hanover(for some reason I cannot remember his handle now) and some others. 

I think it’s important to look at all of the possibilities and also give a little reasoning behind the thoughts that are posted. It is also lots of fun to post about “trees down on Front St. in Harrisburg” or “Tamaqua got fringed again”.

Sometimes it is fun to post some long range snow maps to boost morale, but mostly that is just for entertainment and should not be taken as an actual forecast!

Thank goodness we have  @MAG5035 

He is one of the best posters on this entire website!

Hopefully we get good pattern discussions going in here and share some good quality info this season while having lots of fun along the way!

There is one poster in this forum who I think would have verified higher than anyone else I know had someone been scoring correctness in stands taken on posts.  He had a stellar albeit it short season since he never seemed to see much hope and did not post all that much. 

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@Bubbler86 interesting points. But I know when most of us in the Mid forum post about anything day 7+ it’s meant as an analytical discussion of pattern possibilities not a forecast. I don’t think issuing a forecast for specific weather past day 7, even day 6-7 is a stretch honestly, is a good idea.  I know some people take that probability and pattern recognition analysis and run with it as a forecast but whatever.  Furthermore, the reason we do that is usually because there isn’t much going on in the day 1-6 range. Especially lately. You can always tell we’re having our typical crap years when the majority of posts are analyzing day 14 ensemble trends and MJO plots. I would much rather be analyzing vorticity, moisture convergence, and VVs to try to predict meso scale banding features that picking apart day 10-15 ensemble progs. Unfortunately there haven’t been a while lot of legit threats to make it into range to do that recently so reading the super long range tea leaves is all we have.  Last year I said I thought winter was going to be a total dud in late December and made a long analytical post explaining why. But I said I would continue to track just in case either I was wrong or we lucked into a fluke somewhere. But a post on some possible glimmer of “hope” at day 10-15 should not be confused as a prediction for a snowstorm!  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bubbler86 interesting points. But I know when most of us in the Mid forum post about anything day 7+ it’s meant as an analytical discussion of pattern possibilities not a forecast. I don’t think issuing a forecast for specific weather past day 7, even day 6-7 is a stretch honestly, is a good idea.  I know some people take that probability and pattern recognition analysis and run with it as a forecast but whatever.  Furthermore, the reason we do that is usually because there isn’t much going on in the day 1-6 range. Especially lately. You can always tell we’re having our typical crap years when the majority of posts are analyzing day 14 ensemble trends and MJO plots. I would much rather be analyzing vorticity, moisture convergence, and VVs to try to predict meso scale banding features that picking apart day 10-15 ensemble progs. Unfortunately there haven’t been a while lot of legit threats to make it into range to do that recently so reading the super long range tea leaves is all we have.  Last year I said I thought winter was going to be a total dud in late December and made a long analytical post explaining why. But I said I would continue to track just in case either I was wrong or we lucked into a fluke somewhere. But a post on some possible glimmer of “hope” at day 10-15 should not be confused as a prediction for a snowstorm!  

Good to see you on here! 

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bubbler86 interesting points. But I know when most of us in the Mid forum post about anything day 7+ it’s meant as an analytical discussion of pattern possibilities not a forecast. I don’t think issuing a forecast for specific weather past day 7, even day 6-7 is a stretch honestly, is a good idea.  I know some people take that probability and pattern recognition analysis and run with it as a forecast but whatever.  Furthermore, the reason we do that is usually because there isn’t much going on in the day 1-6 range. Especially lately. You can always tell we’re having our typical crap years when the majority of posts are analyzing day 14 ensemble trends and MJO plots. I would much rather be analyzing vorticity, moisture convergence, and VVs to try to predict meso scale banding features that picking apart day 10-15 ensemble progs. Unfortunately there haven’t been a while lot of legit threats to make it into range to do that recently so reading the super long range tea leaves is all we have.  Last year I said I thought winter was going to be a total dud in late December and made a long analytical post explaining why. But I said I would continue to track just in case either I was wrong or we lucked into a fluke somewhere. But a post on some possible glimmer of “hope” at day 10-15 should not be confused as a prediction for a snowstorm!  

@psuhoffman I think my point is similar to yours and I used your forum as an example because some people consider it the holy grail of forums.  But the majority of what happens there is indeed discussion, comparison and learning while actual forecasting, when done in that environment, tends to lend itself to sensationalism and catering to the crowd.  My post was certainly not aimed at any particular person it was more aimed at the general thought of using the content from the MA LR forum to actually try and make a forecast will, in my opinion, end up lessening the final skill scores of the forecast.  You brought up analyzing meso level stuff which is indeed more along the lines of forecasting especially when one is concentrating on past knowledge of local terrain to take model output and turn it into a viable forecast for any given area.  Some of this discussion here came from previous posts talking about model verification and any particular model truly is making a forecast based on numerical data and the way it was "programmed".  So I stand by my comment that forecasts, whomever may do them, originating from the MA LR forum are some of the worst.

 

FWIW, somewhat like you I made a post in early December where I stated (used the word punt) that the first 1/3 of winter was toast and some of the locals here did not like it.  I did not go into mid to late winter as if I did it would have just been a guess but to me that does cross over into a forecast when one goes from talking about what a model is showing to saying "This is how I think it will be" 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is one poster in this forum who I think would have verified higher than anyone else I know had someone been scoring correctness in stands taken on posts.  He had a stellar albeit it short season since he never seemed to see much hope and did not post all that much. 

This...is so true.

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20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I received so much rain last night that it evaporated in the gauge by morning.

.07" was the tally.

.05” here. You can’t tell. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

@psuhoffman I think my point is similar to yours and I used your forum as an example because some people consider it the holy grail of forums.  But the majority of what happens there is indeed discussion, comparison and learning while actual forecasting, when done in that environment, tends to lend itself to sensationalism and catering to the crowd.  My post was certainly not aimed at any particular person it was more aimed at the general thought of using the content from the MA LR forum to actually try and make a forecast will, in my opinion, end up lessening the final skill scores of the forecast.  You brought up analyzing meso level stuff which is indeed more along the lines of forecasting especially when one is concentrating on past knowledge of local terrain to take model output and turn it into a viable forecast for any given area.  Some of this discussion here came from previous posts talking about model verification and any particular model truly is making a forecast based on numerical data and the way it was "programmed".  So I stand by my comment that forecasts, whomever may do them, originating from the MA LR forum are some of the worst.

 

FWIW, somewhat like you I made a post in early December where I stated (used the word punt) that the first 1/3 of winter was toast and some of the locals here did not like it.  I did not go into mid to late winter as if I did it would have just been a guess but to me that does cross over into a forecast when one goes from talking about what a model is showing to saying "This is how I think it will be" 

Any “long range” forecast will be pretty awful most of the time!  But again I think you are misinterpreting our long range discussion. When DC spends the vast majority of winter stuck in a no hope pattern it would be pretty easy and boring to keep saying “it’s probably not going to snow”. It would be accurate. But boring. We we tend to focus on looking for any hint and discussing ways the pattern “could” evolve to give us any opportunity.  Sometimes that’s getting excited over a pattern that may elevate our chances from lottery level to say a 25% chance we luck into an event. The kind of odds places further north would probably ignore!  But it’s all we got much of the time.  When myself or bob or Showmethesnow discusses what we need to see happen or how we want the pattern to evolve that’s not a forecast. Kind of just a speculative “this is how it could possibly snow if we’re lucky” thing. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Any “long range” forecast will be pretty awful most of the time!  But again I think you are misinterpreting our long range discussion. When DC spends the vast majority of winter stuck in a no hope pattern it would be pretty easy and boring to keep saying “it’s probably not going to snow”. It would be accurate. But boring. We we tend to focus on looking for any hint and discussing ways the pattern “could” evolve to give us any opportunity.  Sometimes that’s getting excited over a pattern that may elevate our chances from lottery level to say a 25% chance we luck into an event. The kind of odds places further north would probably ignore!  But it’s all we got much of the time.  When myself or bob or Showmethesnow discusses what we need to see happen or how we want the pattern to evolve that’s not a forecast. Kind of just a speculative “this is how it could possibly snow if we’re lucky” thing. 

Thank goodness that you, Bob, Show Me & a few others discuss the possibilities of the way the pattern could evolve!

Even in a decent winter, there is a usually a lot of down time between events and periods of opportunity. The “next” & “winter’s over” crowd gets old every year.

Good posters like you put a lot of time into your thoughts and analysis. It gets really frustrating when some posters occasionally trash good posts based on nothing and then claim that they were right about a fail.

I am already reading your thoughts about next winter in your thread and look forward to your analysis of the possibilities. 

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thank goodness that you, Bob, Show Me & a few others discuss the possibilities of the way the pattern could evolve!

Even in a decent winter, there is a usually a lot of down time between events and periods of opportunity. The “next” & “winter’s over” crowd gets old every year.

Good posters like you put a lot of time into your thoughts and analysis. It gets really frustrating when some posters occasionally trash good posts based on nothing and then claim that they were right about a fail.

I am already reading your thoughts about next winter in your thread and look forward to your analysis of the possibilities. 

 

Thanks. Don’t read too much into my off handed winter comments “yet” as a lot could change but I don’t see a whole lot to get very excited about wrt winter prospects. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks. Don’t read too much into my off handed winter comments “yet” as a lot could change but I don’t see a whole lot to get very excited about wrt winter prospects. 

To that very point, we also thought last year had a chance at decent and well all know how that worked out.  Frustrating or not, that IS part of why many of us are here...the thrill of the chase...for snow. 

While I may not posses all of the knowledge that some do, I've been at this plenty long enough to know that we are nothing is a lock, and stranger things can happen.  I'll can see when a window opens or when something might pop and just know that odds still typically are against us in the MA/NMA regions.  For now, I'll take a mild Nina for now and see how the cards are dealt in the coming months.  Regardless of the outcome, I still love looking ahead and giving my best guess as well as seeing what everyone is thinking.  I'm a realist, so if you set reasonable expectations, it's all good.

 

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Any “long range” forecast will be pretty awful most of the time!  But again I think you are misinterpreting our long range discussion. When DC spends the vast majority of winter stuck in a no hope pattern it would be pretty easy and boring to keep saying “it’s probably not going to snow”. It would be accurate. But boring. We we tend to focus on looking for any hint and discussing ways the pattern “could” evolve to give us any opportunity.  Sometimes that’s getting excited over a pattern that may elevate our chances from lottery level to say a 25% chance we luck into an event. The kind of odds places further north would probably ignore!  But it’s all we got much of the time.  When myself or bob or Showmethesnow discusses what we need to see happen or how we want the pattern to evolve that’s not a forecast. Kind of just a speculative “this is how it could possibly snow if we’re lucky” thing. 

I do not want to drag this on too much as I am not misinterpreting my own opinion but we can agree to disagree how we see it.  I said that the forecasters in that thread are the worst under the premise that no one can forecast long range accurately.  The moment a discussion goes from technical discussion of something to "It's going to be rockin'" that becomes a forecast of sort and the point of my message you replied to was  people who take stands and positions, vs. discussion,  on long range forecasting will have the worst verification and that I use that as a barometer for what is actually good or bad.  People who forecast for the public usually cannot do that and get away with it.  

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24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Once we accept we are now in the new Virginia climate it makes everything make sense. Climate change sucks. 

I will only accept that if someone builds the Griffon (Busch Gardens) up here so I do not have to actually drive to S/E VA. 

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2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

I do not want to drag this on too much as I am not misinterpreting my own opinion but we can agree to disagree how we see it.  I said that the forecasters in that thread are the worst under the premise that no one can forecast long range accurately.  The moment a discussion goes from technical discussion of something to "It's going to be rockin'" that becomes a forecast of sort and the point of my message you replied to was  people who take stands and positions, vs. discussion,  on long range forecasting will have the worst verification and that I use that as a barometer for what is actually good or bad.  People who forecast for the public usually cannot do that and get away with it.  

I’m really confused by this post...

@psuhoffman is probably the best poster on this entire website. His posting style is one that should be modeled by others. 

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48 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m really confused by this post...

@psuhoffman is probably the best poster on this entire website. His posting style is one that should be modeled by others. 

In response to a post about posting snow maps it made me think of the MA LR thread and I made a comment that some forecasters in the MA LR thread are the worst at forecasting because I think its an "unforecastable" subject.  PSUHoffman stopped in, to defend the MA thread I guess,  and I defended my opinion.  None of my comments were directed at a specific person.  

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55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I’m really confused by this post...

@psuhoffman is probably the best poster on this entire website. His posting style is one that should be modeled by others. 

Thanks again for the compliment. He is entitled to his opinion. He does have a point that the way we discuss long range threats is most definitely not aligned with how you would issue a public forecast.  But that’s not what I’m trying to do.  Typically when I’m stuck in the long range thread because “now” is a crap pattern all I’m doing is trying to find hope for the suffering snow weenies and analyze our chances of anything. But if you take that as a “forecast” I could definitely see how you would get the impression I’m awful and over hyping snow. If every-time I say a pattern has “potential” was taken as a prediction of snow...well I would be up there with JB!  All I can say is it’s not intended that way. But I can see how it may have come across that way to him.  

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

In response to a post about posting snow maps it made me think of the MA LR thread and I made a comment that some forecasters in the MA LR thread are the worst at forecasting because I think its an "unforecastable" subject.  PSUHoffman stopped in, to defend the MA thread I guess,  and I defended my opinion.  None of my comments were directed at a specific person.  

We’re good no beef don’t worry. 

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14 hours ago, canderson said:

Once we accept we are now in the new Virginia climate it makes everything make sense. Climate change sucks. 

actually I think that their is some validity to what you are implying.  

Yes...it sucks.

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14 hours ago, canderson said:

Once we accept we are now in the new Virginia climate it makes everything make sense. Climate change sucks. 

  • I agree with you. I'd love to see some data for this, but I have to think that the vast majority of records set over recent history are on the hot side...it just does not get as consistently cold as it used to during the winter. Outside of one winter several years back, snowfall is almost impossible to keep on the ground for more than a few days. 
  • Where i really see the difference though is night time lows. Our lows temps year round seem way warmer than they were years ago.
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