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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

My yard is completely dead as well, so I feel the pain of some of you guys lol.

I was sent this pic of the West Branch just outside of Renovo over in western Clinton the other day. I guess that's what a -0.42' stage looks like lol.

118167591_626796111303871_979499280038205712_n.jpg.8c7af1c34ab273178e69dd2a4878688b.jpg

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Haha yea I'm just trying to get some water on the lawn in a couple places at time. I have a pretty big yard and I'm trying not to rack up the water bill too much haha. It was pretty well established so I'm hoping it's dormant and not completely roasted. Guess I'll find out. 

My bill ran about $40 over in June but gave up as June rolled along as watering cannot replace the nitrogen missed without rain nor does it stop the sun from pounding down from the missed protection clouds would have provided.  I might have dormant seeds that come up next spring but the grass itself is dead and being replaced by dirt spots. 

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Didn't the Farmers Almanac say last winter would be wet and cold? Yeah, OK. 

I remember my innocent days before the internet was public where the farmers almanac was my very own Fv3 3 month outlook. 

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20 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

I was sent this pic of the West Branch just outside of Renovo over in western Clinton the other day. I guess that's what a -0.42' stage looks like lol.

118167591_626796111303871_979499280038205712_n.jpg.8c7af1c34ab273178e69dd2a4878688b.jpg

Sadly not surprising, took my nephew fishing at dam in Williamsport and in parts you can walk all the way bank to bank only getting your ankles wet. It’s lowwwww.

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1 hour ago, paweather said:

WOW.....Doesn't surprise me. Especially in certain areas.  

The thing that would interest me to know is if it was that bad during the years emphasized as "really bad droughts" (vs. this one) or if this current drought is being under rated as to its severity. 

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20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The thing that would interest me to know is if it was that bad during the years emphasized as "really bad droughts" (vs. this one) or if this current drought is being under rated as to its severity. 

The drought monitor only goes back to 2000 I believe. This drought is definitely getting pretty severe in the short term sense when it comes to vegetation and stream levels, but we're not in a long term one yet that really gets into stuff like groundwater/reservoir issues yet. A reversal of the dry pattern for a few weeks (or a tropical system strike over the whole area) would probably shore up a lot of the issues. If this general pattern remains into the fall and early winter than we could be dealing with a more long term drought. 

Most of the main river/stream gauges have top 5 low water records to go with their top crests. There's a couple gauges where their current level would be about 4th-5th on the top 5 but most of them aren't that low yet for a top (or I guess bottom) 5. The 1960s decade seems to have a lot of low water records over several waterways. It seems like that was a decade that had a good bit of drought. 

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5 hours ago, paweather said:

Maybe something to track soon?

 

It looks like the Atlantic Basin has a good chance lighting back up the next couple weeks. We are approaching the traditional peak of tropical season (approx Sept 10) for one, and we could be eventually swinging the MJO into phases that correspond with enhanced Atlantic Basin activity, which is the 1-3 realm, but esp 2 and 3. 

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It looks like the Atlantic Basin has a good chance lighting back up the next couple weeks. We are approaching the traditional peak of tropical season (approx Sept 10) for one, and we could be eventually swinging the MJO into phases that correspond with enhanced Atlantic Basin activity, which is the 1-3 realm, but esp 2 and 3. 

Hopefully we can keep the MJO in phase 1 and 2 this winter!

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3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

The drought monitor only goes back to 2000 I believe. This drought is definitely getting pretty severe in the short term sense when it comes to vegetation and stream levels, but we're not in a long term one yet that really gets into stuff like groundwater/reservoir issues yet. A reversal of the dry pattern for a few weeks (or a tropical system strike over the whole area) would probably shore up a lot of the issues. If this general pattern remains into the fall and early winter than we could be dealing with a more long term drought. 

Most of the main river/stream gauges have top 5 low water records to go with their top crests. There's a couple gauges where their current level would be about 4th-5th on the top 5 but most of them aren't that low yet for a top (or I guess bottom) 5. The 1960s decade seems to have a lot of low water records over several waterways. It seems like that was a decade that had a good bit of drought. 

I would like for the drought to break around December the 5th. The pattern that would break the drought would feature a series of 3 moisture laden storms originating in the Gulf of Mexico. The Miller A storm track would be from New Orleans to 50 miles east of Ocean City. Meanwhile, a  -NAO would help to anchor in a wall of Arctic Highs from Hudson Bay to southern Quebec. We would be buried in snow by Christmas and break the drought at the same time! We would also then remember this period the same way as February of 2010!

I think it’s time for me to wake up from my drought breaking Winter dream....!

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11 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Mid 50s this morning. Very nice.

Couple 90s possible next week then hope we slip back into cooler pattern.


.

 

12 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Mid 50s this morning. Very nice.

Couple 90s possible next week then hope we slip back into cooler pattern.


.

It's so nice you had to say it twice! 

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