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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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I know it’s far away to worry about it. But why has every storm been southern sliders or eastern Pa this year. My concern is does this continue into winter. Do we have a massive block in place? Just seems like really weird year and I am bone dry while southern York has had flooding. 

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54 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

I know it’s far away to worry about it. But why has every storm been southern sliders or eastern Pa this year. My concern is does this continue into winter. Do we have a massive block in place? Just seems like really weird year and I am bone dry while southern York has had flooding. 

Yep your right about that on southern sliders and Delaware Valley in regard to storms this summer. I am not worried about it in the winter months yet. I've seen a lot out there on social media already downplaying winter 20-21 so I look at it as optimism. :-)  

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94 degrees at 4:00 pm. Sure looking forward to getting out of this heat wave. Usually try and have all my outdoor activities done by noon.

River here is currently 0.39..,4th lowest on record. 1st is 0.69

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25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Wow. What changed that you were several degrees warmer than me? Congrats!  :)

Not sure.  We were down in Central MD and the car therm was showing 98-99 so it was HOT all around on the southern tier.  HGR only got to 91 so a bit of a spike up here.  91, 95...its all too hot.  LOL.  

 

 

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13 hours ago, canderson said:

Maybe that cold front Tuesday can pop storms. 

10 day Euro has a little hope for some lightish rain.  East Texas shows up with more than some in this forum have received May through August combined.  Incredible.  Many are going to 4 months including a whole summer and only get 6-8" of rain during that time.

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4 hours ago, paweather said:

I’m watching QVC right now and they have there early Christmas show on I hope this will break the heat for me. LOL Yesterday was brutal at a picnic. 

I felt like yesterday was as bad or worse than any other day this summer.  Hard to compare when you are out different times but it was extra hot. 

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Regarding the tropical action, it seems like modeling is suggesting that TS Laura eventually gets picked up in a wide arc and could introduce a period of wet weather or perhaps even a more full fledged rain event. The tracks are all over the place though, GFS takes it in near the TX/LA border and arcs up the Mississippi Valley and around though PA. Euro landfalls further east in southern LA and lifts and arcs harder taking most precip under PA and Canadian is further east yet on landfall but gets precip into southern PA on the arc. This is merely observation on modeling and definitely not a high confidence thing.

All modeling doesn't do much with Marco, which is actually the front running tropical system. Even the tropical models darn near fizzle the thing before it even makes landfall. I'm not particularly impressed with it at the moment, it's had some decent convection bursts but it looks like its starting to get elongated from shear. Personally don't think this comes in as a hurricane but in the Gulf things can turn in a hurry if a window of more favorable conditions presents itself. But it's forecast into a more hostile environment as it nears the coast. It doesn't look like we get too much moisture drawn up prior to the early week frontal passage, which looks like it will shut off that possibility.

Laura has more of a chance to eventually have an influence. It has to get through Cuba first though... And its taking a lousy track that's going to stunt it's development probably for at least another 24hrs. It seems more well developed overall with less shearing influences and a more robust looking circulation. If it can hang on getting into the Gulf, this one will likely be a more formidable Gulf coast threat. 

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The absolute shut out in precip the last couple weeks has come to a merciful end this afternoon with a couple moderate showers already and some heavier storms that look like they're about to impact here. 

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