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Itstrainingtime

Central PA Summer 2020: Hoping The Heat Makes a Hasty Retreat

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10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Their old motto says that their priority is to “protect life & property”. 

I fully understand criteria & evaluation based on solid numbers. Sometimes “close enough” is directly on point to accomplish a goal. 

Does the general public know the difference between a Heat Index of 98 versus 102?

It is HOT & Dangerous for certain activities...they should do what they can to put the word out. These Advisories & Warnings get the attention of people.

Don't agree with this. "Close enough" when being evaluated is going to result in an inferior evaluation. At least "close enough" doesn't cut it often with my superiors. 

Further...what is "close enough?" 2 degrees? 4 degrees? Moving goalposts leads to both confusion and frustration. It becomes very subjective. And then you have a mess.

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Heat index has been over 100 for the past 3 hours.  NWS issued Heat Advisories back around 12:45.  Only criticism would be did the models show or not show temp/dew combo creating heat index values over 100?  My temp peaked at 96 and has pulled back slightly due to clouds from a tiny shower forming over Blue Mountain at the moment.  My heat index peaked at 103 and is back to 101.  Feels yucky out there but much better inside where it's 74 right now.

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Heat index has been over 100 for the past 3 hours.  NWS issued Heat Advisories back around 12:45.  Only criticism would be did the models show or not show temp/dew combo creating heat index values over 100?  My temp peaked at 96 and has pulled back slightly due to clouds from a tiny shower forming over Blue Mountain at the moment.  My heat index peaked at 103 and is back to 101.  Feels yucky out there but much better inside where it's 74 right now.

Ironically, my HI has been under 100 nearly the entire day. It's sitting right on 100 now for the first time since 12:30.

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On 7/18/2020 at 9:20 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

@MAG5035

Is there any hope for this terrible heat pattern breaking down any time soon?

Unfortunately overall it looks like we will remain in this type of regime for perhaps most of the rest of the month. It won't be wall to wall max heat but the periods within the next 8-14 days that are "cooler" are still likely to be at least somewhat above average.. which is still hot this time of the year as we're pretty much within our hottest portion of the year the next 3-4 weeks. We've been due for that wall to wall hot and dry summer July/August, although I guess some folks east of the Susquehanna haven't been all that dry lately. 

As for today, saw that CXY and MDT are back up to 99ºF again after falling to 97 briefly. Two weather stations on mesowest up over 100ºF (101 near Shippensburg and 100 near the MD line south of Gettysburg). Mid to upper 90s are pretty common today in the south central, especially near and west of the Susquehanna and even back here to the eastern Allegheny front where 94-95ºF readings look pretty common. 

Thunderstorms have fired off of Erie a few hours early by the looks of short term guidance, esp the 3k NAM.. which could allow whatever organized line that materializes out of OH to press further into the central counties early this evening. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Unfortunately overall it looks like we will remain in this type of regime for perhaps most of the rest of the month. It won't be wall to wall max heat but the periods within the next 8-14 days that are "cooler" are still likely to be at least somewhat above average.. which is still hot this time of the year as we're pretty much within our hottest portion of the year the next 3-4 weeks. We've been due for that wall to wall hot and dry summer July/August, although I guess some folks east of the Susquehanna haven't been all that dry lately. 

As for today, saw that CXY and MDT are back up to 99ºF again after falling to 97 briefly. Two weather stations on mesowest up over 100ºF (101 near Shippensburg and 100 near the MD line south of Gettysburg). Mid to upper 90s are pretty common today in the south central, especially near and west of the Susquehanna and even back here to the eastern Allegheny front where 94-95ºF readings look pretty common. 

Thunderstorms have fired off of Erie a few hours early by the looks of short term guidance, esp the 3k NAM.. which could allow whatever organized line that materializes out of OH to press further into the central counties early this evening. 

3K Nam has handled the Lake Erie storms well.  Really wish they would make it down to us.  Are you in the D1 drought area now?  its close to you.  In my back yard we are officially 10" below normal  for rain counting May, June and July as of today.  I lived through some of the terrible Florida droughts/wildfires and this is topping them all.  Never thought I would see a double digit deficit over a 75 day period. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't agree with this. "Close enough" when being evaluated is going to result in an inferior evaluation. At least "close enough" doesn't cut it often with my superiors. 

Further...what is "close enough?" 2 degrees? 4 degrees? Moving goalposts leads to both confusion and frustration. It becomes very subjective. And then you have a mess.

I agree, in certain times moving the goalposts can lead to a mess depending on the business or the situation.

Should someone get a speeding ticket if they are going 56 mph in a 55 mph zone? 

In business, I certainly understand. If you are a salesperson, and your goal is to sell 100 items, but you only sold 99, then you had a decent month, but you did Not meet your goal. “Close” would not get you the bonus money that month.

Here, we are merely talking about the weather and the message that needs sent in regard to perception of the forecast by the general public. I think that most people would rather be Advised or Warned if we are very “close” to the criteria of extreme heat, cold, snow or severe thunderstorm.

If people see or hear “Advisory” or “Warning”, then they can make better decisions to protect their life or property.

 

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

Unfortunately overall it looks like we will remain in this type of regime for perhaps most of the rest of the month. It won't be wall to wall max heat but the periods within the next 8-14 days that are "cooler" are still likely to be at least somewhat above average.. which is still hot this time of the year as we're pretty much within our hottest portion of the year the next 3-4 weeks. We've been due for that wall to wall hot and dry summer July/August, although I guess some folks east of the Susquehanna haven't been all that dry lately. 

As for today, saw that CXY and MDT are back up to 99ºF again after falling to 97 briefly. Two weather stations on mesowest up over 100ºF (101 near Shippensburg and 100 near the MD line south of Gettysburg). Mid to upper 90s are pretty common today in the south central, especially near and west of the Susquehanna and even back here to the eastern Allegheny front where 94-95ºF readings look pretty common. 

Thunderstorms have fired off of Erie a few hours early by the looks of short term guidance, esp the 3k NAM.. which could allow whatever organized line that materializes out of OH to press further into the central counties early this evening. 

Thanks for the update, but no thanks to all of this Heat!

I can’t wait until September.

Only a little over 40 days to go! 

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

3K Nam has handled the Lake Erie storms well.  Really wish they would make it down to us.  Are you in the D1 drought area now?  its close to you.  In my back yard we are officially 10" below normal  for rain counting May, June and July as of today.  I lived through some of the terrible Florida droughts/wildfires and this is topping them all.  Never thought I would see a double digit deficit over a 75 day period. 

I'm pretty much within the edge of the D1 zone now. Doesn't look like tonight's action is getting here either, with a split in the thunderstorm activity poised to go north and southwest of here. On the drought monitor's national map, the area of drought conditions in PA is labeled as a short term drought.. which would indicate despite it being very dry in a lot of the area that the drought hasn't progressed to one that has adversely affected the water table, reservoirs, etc. 

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Has anyone seen the comet yet? I managed to get a pic of it Friday night from here at home. Not the greatest with an older digital camera and no tripod but still pretty cool.

DSCN0878.thumb.jpg.47ba53d49e1b3707c9e68cebb18d42ee.jpg

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46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I'm pretty much within the edge of the D1 zone now. Doesn't look like tonight's action is getting here either, with a split in the thunderstorm activity poised to go north and southwest of here. On the drought monitor's national map, the area of drought conditions in PA is labeled as a short term drought.. which would indicate despite it being very dry in a lot of the area that the drought hasn't progressed to one that has adversely affected the water table, reservoirs, etc. 

Yea, we have folks getting brown water around here so the water table is regressing fast.  Certainly not a drastic drought but fairly bad.

 

 

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So this is a nice site.  Shows water levels at testers in each county.  A little slow to represent graphs when going back years.  There must have been some fairly bad drought conditions in 2016 and 2017 per the charts as water levels were a good 10% lower then.    However also shows waters levels (in Franklin) have dropped more drastically in the last year than anytime in the past since recording started in 2007.  Interesting data. 

https://waterdata.usgs.gov/pa/nwis/current?type=gw

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Meanwhile I just noticed Tamaqua has incoming, again lol @Voyager

 

39 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

He has been getting all of the rain this summer! It would be nice if he would share some with @Bubbler86 & @Cashtown_Coop

We got maybe 1/100" out of that...lol

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75 degrees at 5:30 this morning...stay hydrated today!

I will be glad when we get out of this pattern.

Had a nice line of storms heading our way twice yesterday and it just dissipated. Poof

I think we had a official high yesterday of 97 which broke a record.

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The heat wave for next week (starting the 26th) is indeed worse for the LSV than the one we are starting to come out of....on this AM's Euro.   Also almost no rain during the whole 240 period (even for Voyager.)

 

 

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The heat wave for next week (starting the 26th) is indeed worse for the LSV than the one we are starting to come out of....on this AM's Euro.   Also almost no rain during the whole 240 period (even for Voyager.)

 

 

Next week could be brutal.

 

Already 89F at 9:00 am.

 

Does Harrisburg hit 100F again?

 

 

.

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4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Next week could be brutal.

 

Already 89F at 9:00 am.

 

Does Harrisburg hit 100F again?

 

 

.

Off to slow start hear at 81.  Only hit 94 here yesterday.  Was surprised when I heard MDT hit 100.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Off to slow start hear at 81.  Only hit 94 here yesterday.  Was surprised when I heard MDT hit 100.

 

 

Yesterday seemed to be about the amount of clouds in any one given area - I managed a late afternoon high of 97 but also had a lot of clouds and even a light shower during the "prime time" hours of 12-3.

I'm at 86.6 right now with just a little high cirrus. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yesterday seemed to be about the amount of clouds in any one given area - I managed a late afternoon high of 97 but also had a lot of clouds and even a light shower during the "prime time" hours of 12-3.

I'm at 86.6 right now with just a little high cirrus. 

Yea, I would have called it party cloudy over here yesterday.  Sun was in for several hours.  

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

The heat wave for next week (starting the 26th) is indeed worse for the LSV than the one we are starting to come out of....on this AM's Euro.   Also almost no rain during the whole 240 period (even for Voyager.)

 

 

It was bound to happen.

As for the previous rains, I don't know about anywhere else, but when a storm is forming right over town, it seems to want to keep backbuilding. The clouds billow up, gets dark, and just lets loose with quarter to half dollar sized rain drops. Then, just about when it looks like is over and past us, a new cluster pops up and repeats the process. I've seen it in other years as well.

Usually we get the split, or the line falls apart or disintegrates, but if they build at the right location in the right conditions, we get DUMPED on.

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5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It was bound to happen.

As for the previous rains, I don't know about anywhere else, but when a storm is forming right over town, it seems to want to keep backbuilding. The clouds billow up, gets dark, and just lets loose with quarter to half dollar sized rain drops. Then, just about when it looks like is over and past us, a new cluster pops up and repeats the process. I've seen it in other years as well.

Usually we get the split, or the line falls apart or disintegrates, but if they build at the right location in the right conditions, we get DUMPED on.

You are the forum Rain Man now.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Superstorm said:

Next week could be brutal.

 

Already 89F at 9:00 am.

 

Does Harrisburg hit 100F again?

 

 

.

Well i'm hangin my hopes on the GFS ens guidance for .5-1" of precip this week.  I'm using my new winter skills of not going beyond 7 days....but if one peeks, yeah there is a pig ridge in the central basin later this week, but heights seem to lower as we get into early next week.  Not saying big relief, but maybe a respite if the GFS camp has any merit.  

maybe its just me weeniecasting/cherrypickin what i want from the models as well....dunno?

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