• Member Statistics

    16,277
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Wrigleywx
    Newest Member
    Wrigleywx
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Hoosier

Cristobal Remnants June 9-10

Recommended Posts

Liking where I sit generally speaking, should be a first for many of us, the lakefront erosion and potential high end seiche are gonna be interesting to watch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The track of the Cristobal comes right through here the way it's looking.  Looks like the heaviest rains miss to the west (which is good for this area), and the strongest winds miss to the east.  Still a pretty cool system to watch though.  We should have an over/under for strongest wind gust for a location that looks like it could be in for the highest winds, like ORD or something.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS has 70 mph gusts for the UP of Michigan. Other areas look more in the 45-60 mph range, especially on a line from Chicago to Detroit northward. Nothing crazy but a decent wind event nonetheless. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is such a bizarre setup for June.  

Trying to recall a tropical system moving north from the Gulf getting picked up and. moving out quickly in June like it was September ....

They usually stall in the deep south somewhere in the summer

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The way I see it, there are a couple of regimes that are more favored to mix down some higher gusts on Tuesday around here.  

The first one is early afternoon, when daytime heating/low level lapse rates look maximized prior to more extensive clouds/precip and the stronger wind fields start to move in with the approach of Cristobal.  The second regime is with any heavier showers/storms.

Not that it won't be windy at other times, but not sure how well we will be able to mix by later afternoon/evening outside of the showers and storms.  If we are able to mix well on a more consistent basis, look out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, UMB WX said:

Don't reckon ever witnessing some of the winds being outputed for SE, WI.    2020 baby.

Not for a decent period of time like this in June (usually only briefly with severe storms).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

d99e32f04aafdeaa3f5d92950f74bd64.jpg


.

Cristobal was actually a tad deeper than the 00z run, but lower gusts on this run.

That is sort of a clown product anyway, even though it's fun to look at.  B)  Give me forecast soundings any day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Cristobal was actually a tad deeper than the 00z run, but lower gusts on this run.

That is sort of a clown product anyway, even though it's fun to look at.  B)  Give me forecast soundings any day.

For 0z Wed out of DeKalb Co...

ecmwf_full_2020060712_060_41_75--88_75.thumb.png.cfdaf54083838ae88543f72c1c94b1c3.png

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid afternoon...as the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Reminds me of what Indiana and Ohio went through with the remnants of Ike. Can't remember the year. So eerie. Mid afternoon...as the remnants passed we never had a drop of rain, but with peak sunshine the winds were awful for a couple of hours as the heating mixed down the very strong air currents. The wind was incredible. Everyone was outside witnessing the roar and trying to stand still. The shrieking was punctuated by the constant cracking of trees here in the Dayton area and limbs were flying like crazy. My next door neighbors lost 4 or 5 full grown pear trees. We have an in ground pool and the mess was incredible with all the debris. Never will forget it. Enjoy the phenomenon west of here!

It was September 2008.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tropical/non-tropical sort of exists on a scale from not tropical at all to purely tropical, and is not necessarily a binary yes/no thing, but it is pretty remarkable that they have it as a tropical depression in Wisconsin.

Also, one of the few times that Lake Michigan will be mentioned in an NHC discussion 

No significant intensification is expected before landfall occurs 
late this afternoon or early evening primarily due to Cristobal's 
broad wind field. However, intrusions of dry air could result in 
wind gusts of 55-60 kt in some of the stronger squalls. After 
landfall, only slow weakening is expected due to the cyclone's large 
wind field. In the 60-96 hour period, some slight strengthening to 
gale-force strength is forecast due to strong baroclinic forcing 
during the extratropical transition, and a long southerly to 
south-southwesterly wind fetch blowing across Lake Michigan. The 
official intensity closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and 
ECMWF global models.

 

204900_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.98d4ce18f2cfce78804ea2a656d1c991.png

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wind fields impressive with this. Curious how much phasing we will get between the remnants and incoming trough. Seems the trend has been for less phasing. Regardless still looks like solid wind advisory to possibly high wind warning criteria. Won't take much instability at all for a robust tornado threat with low topped supercells. Hope this times during peak heating Tues to maximize severe potential 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Not for a decent period of time like this in June (usually only briefly with severe storms).

ghd 1 takes top spot in my storm experiences. I'm due for a biggie.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking back at Ike and comparing to Cristobal, this one seems more junky with clouds/precip to the east/southeast of the surface low, which suggests not as efficient mixing.  Ike's pressure stayed relatively steady state from 12z to 00z on the 14th... between about 987-990 mb.  The surface low with Cristobal will be deepening as it moves through, so that is one advantage it has over Ike.     

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

 

 

204900_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png.98d4ce18f2cfce78804ea2a656d1c991.png

Crazy that it keeps its tropical characteristics into the U.P. and then strengthens into an extra-tropical storm. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Slight bump east on both the 3km NAM/HRRRV which brings the heaviest rains closer towards DVN.  Another tick east and we'll be in the heaviest.  Don't need the rain at all, but if we aren't gonna get the good winds might as well go for the heavy rains I guess lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

3K NAM is also much less linear, looks like a broken line of supercells

Has upper 80s to low 90s on the outer flank.  If it can get that warm, who cares if it gets too cloudy after that.

sfct_b.us_mw.thumb.png.639d46a1ab8108e0e62e950c87042ce8.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.