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snowlover2

June 2-3 Severe Weather

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An enhanced area has been added to southern MN and parts of west WI on the new day 2. Severe storms could be possible again on Wednesday farther south across IL/IN/OH.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1259 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE  
UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
   
..UPPER MIDWEST INCLUDING EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO WISCONSIN
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY  
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITHIN A CORRIDOR  
SPANNING FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN  
WISCONSIN.  
 
A FLATTENING/STRENGTHENING BELT OF NORTHERN-TIER WESTERLIES (50+ KT  
AT 500 MB) WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER VICINITY. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITH AROUND 70F  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IS EXPECTED NEAR A WSW/ENE-ORIENTED FRONT THAT  
WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO  
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. AN  
EASTWARD-ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND RELATED CAPPING WILL  
TEND TO HINDER DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHILE  
OTHERWISE CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE NEAR THE FRONT AS  
INHIBITION ERODES BY TUESDAY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  
 
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO  
INITIALLY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY  
MID/LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE RESIDUAL INFLUENCES OF  
POTENTIAL EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA LEAD TO  
SOME TIMING/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES. REGARDLESS, AN INCREASE IN  
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE  
FRONTAL ZONE. VERTICAL SHEAR (30-45 KT EFFECTIVE) WILL BE MAXIMIZED  
ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE FRONT, WITH INITIAL SUPERCELLS  
EXPECTED GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY  
SIGNIFICANT 2+ INCH) SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD INITIALLY.  
HOWEVER, STORMS WILL LIKELY CLUSTER/ORGANIZE AND GROW UPSCALE DURING  
THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE DAMAGING WIND  
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY  
REACH THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN VICINITY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
 

 

spccoday2.categorical.latest.png

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Day 3 has a slight risk over a large part of the southern sub.

Quote

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0242 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST STATES...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST  
STATES.  
   
..NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS
 
 
A BELT OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION  
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY  
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, POTENTIALLY INCLUDING THE BLACK HILLS  
VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHEAST  
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOME SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED AND AT LEAST  
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEAR PROBABLE. INTO  
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AN MCS COULD  
PERSIST AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR  
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WITH A SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY CONTINUING  
INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
   
..MIDWEST INCLUDING MISSOURI TO OHIO
 
 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT,  
WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION (3000+ J/KG MLCAPE) CURRENTLY  
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF  
ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING  
FOR ASCENT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NOT  
BE OVERLY STRONG, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ROUGHLY 20-35 KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS  
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND SOME SEVERE HAIL.  
   
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES
 
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATED BELT OF STRONG  
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL OVERLIE A  
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING FRONT. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,  
MODERATE BUOYANCY IS PLAUSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WITH SEVERE  
STORMS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING  
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND 40+ KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH  
SUSTAINED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE  
HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
..GUYER.. 06/01/2020

 

spccoday3.categorical.latest.png

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Updated day 2 sees the enhanced area expanded more into central WI and a touch south into northern IA.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME  
EAST-CENTRAL SD INTO FAR NORTHERN IA...SOUTHERN MN AND CENTRAL WI...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI  
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE, WITH THE  
GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AN ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS SEVERAL NORTHERN-STREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/IMPULSES MIGRATE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
LOWER GREAT LAKES ATOP A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER  
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..SD/NE INTO LOWER MI
 
 
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE MID-MO  
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES VICINITY ON STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S TO  
PERHAPS NEAR 70 F ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER  
MI INTO CENTRAL MN AND SOUTHEAST SD MIDDAY TUESDAY. STRONG HEATING  
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN  
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8  
C/KM) WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES FROM  
2000-4000 J/KG. MEANWHILE, A BAND OF 35-45 KT BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR  
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
 
SUPERCELLS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR A TRIPLE POINT OVER SOUTHEAST  
SD EAST/NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN.  
THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT STORMS INITIALLY  
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (SOME POTENTIALLY BIGGER THAN 2 INCHES IN  
DIAMETER), AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WHERE LOW LEVEL SRH IS ENHANCED NEAR  
THE SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, A COUPLE OF  
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR WITH ANY DISCRETE CONVECTION. CONVECTION IS  
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF INITIATION AS FRONTAL  
FORCING INCREASES, AND AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS/COLD POOL PRODUCTION  
BECOMES MORE SUPPORTIVE OF BOWING SEGMENTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN  
IA, FAR SOUTHERN MN AND INTO WI/MI DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS.  
   
 
   
..LOWER GREAT LAKES VICINITY
 
 
MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF  
NORTHEAST OH INTO WESTERN NY/PA ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN EXITING  
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY  
AFTERNOON, AS RICH MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ONTARIO ALONG THE EASTERN  
EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO  
NORTHEAST OH AND WESTERN PA/NY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS  
EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  
 
..LEITMAN.. 06/01/2020  
 

 

spccoday2.categorical.latest.png

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Despite our being in the slight risk, the 3K NAM (notorious for blowing up giant MCCs at the slightest provocation) doesn't show southern WI getting much Tuesday night. WRF-ARW seeems to concur. HRW NMMB and WRF-NSSL (not too familiar with those last three CAMS vs. the 3K NAM and HRRR) at least give us some thunder, but not looking to impressive either.

This looks like yet another year where severe events go from missing us to the south, right to missing us to the north.

  • Weenie 1

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Eastward shift of the enhanced area on new day 1.

Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1242 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY FROM THE MIDDLE  
MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE  
POSSIBLE, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN  
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
   
..MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES
 
 
EARLY-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH  
ALONG THE AB/SK BORDER, EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MT. SOUTHERN EXTENT  
OF THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATER TODAY  
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE, THEN ADVANCE INTO THE  
UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, SYNOPTIC FRONT IS FORECAST  
TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WI - INTO SOUTHERN MN - SOUTHEASTERN SD  
BY 18Z, THEN DRAPE ITSELF FROM CENTRAL WI - MN/IA BORDER - CENTRAL  
NE BY EARLY EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS  
SURFACE-BASED PARCELS WILL REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH 22Z BUT CONVECTION  
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT A FEW HOURS  
EARLIER WHERE SHORT-WAVE FORCING IS MORE NOTABLE. LATEST CAMS  
SUGGEST ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD INITIATE OVER EASTERN  
SD BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN SPREAD/DEVELOP EAST ALONG/NEAR THE  
FRONTAL ZONE INTO SOUTHERN MN. A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION INTO CENTRAL WI AND THERE IS INCREASING  
CONFIDENCE THAT EARLY-AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE  
ADVANTAGE OF THIS DOWNSTREAM BUOYANCY AND INGEST MOIST/UNSTABLE  
BOUNDARY-LAYER INFLOW. IF SO, ROBUST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY  
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS A  
FEW SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL COULD  
OCCUR, BUT MOST LIKELY WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. OTHERWISE, IF AN  
MCS EVOLVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR DAMAGING  
WINDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS  
SOUTHERN WI INTO LOWER MI AFTER SUNSET, POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO  
NORTHERN OH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

 

spccoday1.categorical.latest.png

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New day 2

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0100 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST  
STATES/DELMARVA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE  
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, OHIO VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE  
NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA.  
   
..OVERVIEW
 
 
AN EXTENSIVE WEST/EAST ZONE OF SEVERE-WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED  
ON WEDNESDAY, INFLUENCED BY A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT  
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES/DELMARVA, AND A  
SUPERCELL-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS.  
   
..NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS
 
 
A BELT OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL  
INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A PREFRONTAL TROUGH  
AND/OR SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT. THIS INCLUDES WESTERN SOUTH  
DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. OTHER  
STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS IN VICINITY OF NORTHEAST  
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. AT LEAST ISOLATED  
SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE REGIONS WITH LARGE HAIL AND  
STRONG WIND GUSTS PROBABLE. INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THERE IS  
THE POSSIBILITY THAN AN MCS OR AT LEAST SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS COULD  
PERSIST AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY NEAR THE  
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. IF SO, A SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO  
THE OVERNIGHT.  
   
..UPPER OHIO VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES
 
 
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A RELATED BELT OF STRONG  
CYCLONICALLY CURVED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT (40-55 KT AT 500  
MB) WILL OVERLIE A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-SPREADING FRONT. THE  
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EARLY DAY CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, AND  
THIS CONVECTION AND RELATED CLOUD COVER CASTS SOME UNCERTAINTY 1)  
REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AND 2) A PREFERRED  
CORRIDOR OF ANY HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
THAT SAID, MODERATE BUOYANCY (UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG MLCAPE) IS  
PLAUSIBLE NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND TO THE SOUTH OF ANY RESIDUAL  
EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION/OUTFLOW. STORMS WILL LIKELY  
INCREASE/INTENSIFY THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON NEAR THE EFFECTIVE  
FRONT. THE STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND 40+ KT EFFECTIVE  
SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH  
WELL-ORGANIZED SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CLUSTERS. DAMAGING WINDS AND  
SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND TO  
REMAIN VEERED IN AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, MODERATELY STRONG  
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH COULD YIELD A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK DURING THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
   
..MIDWEST INCLUDING MISSOURI TO OHIO
 
 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING FRONT,  
WITH THE STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION (3000+ J/KG MLCAPE) EXPECTED  
ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO MUCH OF ILLINOIS/INDIANA.  
SUFFICIENT NEAR-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE NOT  
BE OVERLY STRONG, THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND ROUGHLY 20-30 KT  
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS  
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL.  
 
..GUYER.. 06/02/2020

 

spccoday2.categorical.latest.png

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For around here it looks like mostly a miss north for tonight, and then a miss south for tomorrow.


.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

For around here it looks like mostly a miss north for tonight, and then a miss south for tomorrow.


.

The Michigan treatment, rare for Chicago.

  • Weenie 1

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Is it me or is the SPC site getting worse and worse with not displaying outlook updates? 1325 and the 13Z update still does not show for me no matter how many times I refresh. It's available on COD (as usual) which shows it was issued at 1258.

Thank goodness it's not this bad for shorter-fuse products like watches and MDs.

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44 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

1630 update: 30% hail probabilities trimmed away from us, 5% TOR removed, but hatched area added to 30% wind.

Enhanced area also expanded into west MI.

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Updated day 2 remains the same but there is a mention of possible increase in probs being needed for lower lakes area.

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1229 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2020  
 
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION...THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...THE OHIO  
VALLEY...THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, AS WELL AS ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS, AND ACROSS  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
AMPLIFIED, NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING (CURRENTLY EAST OF  
THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST) IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHWARD THROUGH  
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, AND CONSOLIDATE WITH TROUGHING OVER QUEBEC,  
WHERE A DEEP EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL LOW MAY EVOLVE BY LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, MID-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS LIKELY  
TO TREND MORE ZONAL, BUT REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC ACROSS THE LOWER  
GREAT LAKES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST.  
 
TO THE WEST, STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
ZONAL, AND LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S, FROM  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS AN EMBEDDED LOW  
AMPLITUDE WAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.  
BORDER, THE WESTERLIES MAY BEGIN TO SPLIT DOWNSTREAM, WITH A WEAKER  
BRANCH OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER  
MISSOURI VALLEY.  
 
BENEATH THIS REGIME, MODELS INDICATE THAT A PLUME OF WARM ELEVATED  
MIXED-LAYER AIR (EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN)  
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND MID  
ATLANTIC REGION, BEFORE BECOMING SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY.  
THIS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL BE  
PRECEDED BY MOISTENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. IT  
APPEARS THAT A COMBINATION OF EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN BOUNDARY-LAYER DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO  
THE MID 60S+ ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO INTO PORTIONS OF THE ALLEGHENY  
PLATEAU AND NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC, AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSOURI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MAY ALSO BE MAINTAINED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGHING  
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  
   
..LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION
 
 
AT LEAST SOME MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT A BELT OF ENHANCED FLOW  
(30-50+ KT) IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY  
GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION, MAY CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE  
POTENTIAL AS IT MIGRATES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  
REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IMPULSE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY  
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH COULD IMPACT DOWNSTREAM  
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR  
RE-INTENSIFICATION, AND THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED  
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH COULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,  
SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING  
THE EXTENT OF BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS THE PRIMARY  
UNCERTAINTY RESULTING IN THE MAINTENANCE OF 15 PERCENT SEVERE  
PROBABILITIES. IF MODERATE BOUNDARY-LAYER CAPE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP,  
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE INCREASED.  
   
..MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
 
 
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY BE FAIRLY WEAK, MODEST, BROADLY  
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE  
TO THE EVOLUTION OF SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORM  
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMODYNAMIC  
PROFILES EXHIBITING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SIZABLE CAPE  
PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND  
WIND IN STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  
   
 
 
..KERR.. 06/02/2020  
 

 

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11 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

HRRR still doesn't want to give southern WI much of anything. Shows Madison remaining nearly dry overnight.

v4 has precip extending further south which seems like a more realistic representation

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I don't really see why we wouldn't get anything tonight. The whole setup screams at least a decent squall line coming through. Although what I don't get is MKX showing the storm going through the area NW-SE when again that's not really going to be the case. 

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storms blowing up quickly NE of Rochester, much further east that any CAMs had storms developing at this hour

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The weather set up looks nice. haven't been this excited for a strong squall line in a few years. lots of cape throughout the night here in southeast michigan.

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A few new severe storms are popping up near Mankato, MN

Quote
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   440 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2020

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Northern Iowa
     Southern Minnesota
     West central and southwest Wisconsin

   * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
     CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter likely

 

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1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

I don't really see why we wouldn't get anything tonight. The whole setup screams at least a decent squall line coming through. Although what I don't get is MKX showing the storm going through the area NW-SE when again that's not really going to be the case. 

You don't think so?  Maybe more WNW to ESE but largely that's the way they've been moving so far and models, at worst, have them moving W to E.  The further south development so far means the HRRR should be taken with a major grain of salt.

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3 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

hmm im getting vibes of the 1998 southern great lakes derecho. i hope the setup holds true for the overnight hours.

Imagine if it motored at that speed, the line in C Wisconsin that seems to be congealing is moving at a pretty fair clip.

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yeah it seems to be moving more southeast then i thought. i want it to go more east twords eastern michigan. been wanting one of these storms for a few years now.

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15 minutes ago, Solidsting said:

hmm im getting vibes of the 1998 southern great lakes derecho. i hope the setup holds true for the overnight hours.

I'd pump the brakes on that comparison.

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd pump the brakes on that comparison.

Maybe he's like me where it's been so long since I've even had a thunderstorm (for Spring standards) that any line bearing down looks strong.

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