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June 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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35 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

rain dome over me all day, storms east, west, north, south.:rolleyes::weenie:

Not the only one

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54 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

rain dome over me all day, storms east, west, north, south.:rolleyes::weenie:

If I get missed again today I’m going to loose it 

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1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Everything is east or west

It seems like whenever we get north to south echoes our area does poorly 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

If I get missed again today I’m going to loose it 

It's mind-boggling how bad our luck is here. I came out of Shoprite of Piscataway and it was coming down in BUCKETS. Had to load the car in pouring rain. So I was hoping my vegetable garden got a good watering, but I get home (only a little over 5 minutes away from Shoprite) and see that the ground is only slightly wet. Just a little shower here, not nearly enough to water anything. Very irritating. I looked at radar and saw that one cell missed me a couple miles to the west and another missed me a couple miles to the east. Disgusting luck. Outside I go now to water the garden. Really irritating considering it was a deluge just a few miles away at Shoprite where I had to get soaked loading the car.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

First June that Newark averaged 74 degrees or warmer and didn’t have a monthly maximum temperature above 93 degrees. Newark is currently at the 10th warmest June on record. But the monthly maximum of 93 degrees is the coolest for all 74 degree or warmer years.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Max Temperature
1 1994 77.8 102
2 2010 76.2 98
3 1993 75.8 102
4 1943 75.4 102
5 2008 75.3 99
6 1984 75.0 97
7 1971 74.8 94
8 2005 74.6 97
- 1981 74.6 98
- 1973 74.6 95
9 2011 74.5 102
10 2020 74.4 93
- 1987 74.4 96
11 1989 74.3 96
12 1999 74.2 99
13 1991 74.1 97

 

 

 

warmest June for JFK that had no 90 degree temps, Chris?

 

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10 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The last day of June is averaging 76degs. ,or 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  +2.4[73.7].         June should end at +2.3[73.7].

70* here at 6am., scattered cirrus.     74* by Noon, cloudy.          78* by 2pm, clouds, breaks           75*-78* by 5pm, plain lite shower.

The first 10 days of July are averaging 84, or +8.      13 90-Degree Days, including 3 100's incoming during the first half of July says the GFS!!!    Wack-A-Do

when is all this extreme heat supposed to be coming? surely not in the first full week of the month

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23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

warmest June for JFK that had no 90 degree temps, Chris?

 

Yes. It was the first 71 degree or warmer June at JFK not to reach 90 degrees. 

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Just now, winterwx21 said:

It's mind-boggling how bad our luck is here. I came out of Shoprite of Piscataway and it was coming down in BUCKETS. Had to load the car in pouring rain. So I was hoping my vegetable garden got a good watering, but I get home (only a little over 5 minutes away from Shoprite) and see that the ground is only slightly wet. Just a little shower here, not nearly enough to water anything. Very irritating. I looked at radar and saw that one cell missed me a couple miles to the west and another missed me a couple miles to the east. Disgusting luck. Outside I go now to water the garden. Really irritating considering it was a deluge just a few miles away at Shoprite where I had to get soaked loading the car.

I fee for ya! I completely understand the frustration of watering on a daily bases. We didn’t get lots of rain here but it was enough to keep the sprinkler off.

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The first month of summer was warmer than normal. The greatest warm anomalies were located across Upstate New York and northern New England. New York City finished with a mean temperature of 73.7°, which was 2.2° above normal. July will likely be 2°-4° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

A predominantly warmer than normal pattern will likely persist through at least July and August, paving the way for a warmer than normal summer throughout the region. Occasional short-lived cool shots remain possible Initially, extreme heat is unlikely, but that could change during July, especially if the emerging drought continues to deepen. One or more heatwaves are likely in July across the region.

The CFSv2, which has now moved into its skillful range for its monthly forecasts, and the EPS weeklies favor a warmer than normal July across the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. Neutral-cool conditions will likely prevail through mid-summer. The probability of the development of a La Niña event during late summer or early autumn has increased in recent weeks.

The SOI was +7.52.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.491.

On June 29, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.302.

Last year, the MJO went through a very strong passage through Phase 1 during the closing days of May. About four weeks later, a warmer than normal pattern locked in and predominated through early autumn.

This year, the MJO was in Phase 1 for 3 consecutive days with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the June 1-3 period. Since 1981, there were four such cases that saw the MJO meet or exceed those thresholds during the June 1-10 period: 2002, 2006, 2007, and 2015. While the four cases were evenly split between cooler and warmer than normal during the second half of June, 3 of those 4 cases saw a warmer to much warmer than normal July. This could be an early indication that a summer that will start with near normal temperatures overall (June) could turn warmer than normal afterward.

Last year, the SOI fell to -42.04 on June 22 when the MJO was in Phase 6. This year, the SOI plunged below -46.68 on June 5, its lowest level in more than three years. The dramatic plunge in the SOI could be the proverbial spark that kicks off a sequence of events leading to the development of a sustained warmer than normal period. Taking into consideration the MJO, that transition could begin some time during the closing 10 days of June. Further, the cases that saw both the MJO and SOI thresholds satisfied generally saw 10-20 days where the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

Just as had been the case last year, July and August could feature warm anomalies in the East. July-August 2019 saw 13 days on which the temperature reached or exceeded 90° in New York City.

 

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6/30

PHL: 86
ACY: 84
New Brnswk: 84
TTN: 83
EWR: 82 (1.44)
JFK: 81
LGA: 81
NYC: 80
SIP: 79
BLM: 79
TEB: 79

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42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first month of summer was warmer than normal. The greatest warm anomalies were located across Upstate New York and northern New England. New York City finished with a mean temperature of 73.7°, which was 2.2° below normal. July will likely be 2°-4° above normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions

 

Do you mean 2.2° above normal for NYC? 

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June Departures

LGA: +3.7
NYC: +2.3
ISP: +2.3
BLM: +2.2
EWR: +2.0
TTN": +1.4
JFK: +1.0 

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if you used the last 30 year average from 1991-2020 June averaged 71.9...so going on the new 30 year average June 2020 was +1.8 from hard averages...

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