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Bob's Burgers

April 19th Severe Event

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Don't think I have ever seen a Tornado Watch have "high" probabilities for five of the six categories and not be PDS. Interesting. 

Winds are looking veered to nearly southwest, or at least south-southwest, across most of Southern MS and AL.

As of now, most of the tornado threat would appear to be tied to storms INVOF the warm front where winds will be locally backed. As referenced in the BMX AFD this morning, I am not entirely sure how much of a tornado threat will exist across southern MS/AL if surface winds are going to remain out of the southwest.

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4 minutes ago, Calderon said:

Also watching a pair of cells northeast of Victoria, TX. The northern one does have some mid-level rotation evident and moving into an undisturbed environment as it moves towards the southern half of metro Houston.

Im watching that as well, unimpeded environment ahead of it and its super isolated. Getting better organized as well 

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26 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 121  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1145 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHEAST LOUISIANA  
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL  
  700 PM CDT.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  SEVERAL TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL AND SCATTERED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO  
    2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER LOUISIANA WILL TRACK  
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STRONGEST STORMS  
WILL POSE A RISK LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES.  AN  
ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.  

Hate to nitpick here, but the discussion language mentions “an isolated strong tornado is possible” while the primary threat section says “a couple of intense tornadoes likely.” There shouldn’t be a discrepancy. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
123 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF...  
  BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...  
  
* UNTIL 200 PM EDT.  
      
* AT 123 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO  
  WAS LOCATED NEAR NEVILS, MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  

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ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX  
1228 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  SOUTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...  
  
* UNTIL 115 PM CDT.  
      
* AT 1227 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER SHEPHERD, OR 9 MILES NORTH OF CLEVELAND,  
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
  
  IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
           SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.   
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE   
           DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
  

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Houston could have a problem with that discrete cell across Wharton Co. TX if it can get better organized, all by itself and HGX VWP indicates 0-3km SRH on the order of >450m^2/s^2. 

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Looks like new SPC meso says trends towards supercellular mode are apparent over SE TX and far SW LA

Edit: The page didn't refresh for me so I thought nobody had commented on the environment in SE TX. My bad

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 Mesoscale Discussion 0405
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

   Areas affected...upper coast of TX...southwest LA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 120...

   Valid 191739Z - 191845Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 120 continues.

   SUMMARY...Convective trends towards a supercellular convective mode
   are increasing as 700mb flow intensifies this afternoon.  Large to
   very large hail is possible with the mature supercells.  A tornado
   risk will probably accompany the stronger/more persistent low-level
   mesocyclones.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery trends over the past hour are showing
   warm sector development of storms acquiring some intermittent
   rotation north of the greater Houston area.  A robust supercell has
   also recently developed to the north of Matagorda Bay moving towards
   the south side of the Houston metro during the next few hours.  The
   boundary layer across the upper coast of TX continues to destabilize
   as temperatures warm through the 70s and into the lower 80s near
   Galveston Bay.  

   As storms continue to gradually intensify during the early
   afternoon, coincident with the aforementioned strengthening flow in
   the low to mid levels, the risk for a tornado and large to very
   large hail will correspondingly increase with the strongest storms. 
   Short-term model guidance is suggesting at least some severe
   activity will move across the Galveston Bay vicinity and into
   southwest LA and the near-shore waters during the next 2-4 hours.

   ..Smith.. 04/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29209642 30889521 31379385 31239319 30769295 30039322
               28549565 29209642 

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Storms SW of Houston do need to be watched. Mesoanalysis trends are favorable for further development, STP is high. Things are starting to light up at this point all over east TX and southern and western LA as diabatic heating increases amidst already high dew points and strong(er) deep-layer sheer.  We're heading into the active part of the day--whatever that ends up meaning. I see I've been beaten to this as well by a bunch of folks but I was waiting to post until the two cells had finished merging to see what happened with that interaction before sounding a fool. Looks like a couplet is forming right now so any chaser in that area is probably seeing a developing wall cloud.  Ignore the second attachment, the first one is the newer update. 

1591602110_ScreenShot2020-04-19at2_07_22PM.png.8ab595dfeb896b330f6eb9d5791a7dc8.png

 

Screen Shot 2020-04-19 at 2.01.55 PM.png

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6 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

DGX radar showing a definite move n/ne with the storms as the WF progresses northward in MS.

Think it’s pretty safe to assume areas south of Jackson, MS will be primed in the coming hours as the storms in LA progress east. They’ll be heading into a very unstable environment 

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Cell north of Bay City, TX (west of HGX) starting to acquire rotation and a ZDR-arc. Hmm...

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Cell north of Bay City, TX (west of HGX) starting to acquire rotation and a ZDR-arc. Hmm...

Rotation aloft continues to gradually build but still needs to tighten up more, and with more heavy showers developing in the inflow catchment area, not sure if it'll go all the way before moving offshore and becoming a shipping and rig hazard,

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so far surface winds remain veered SW and light

this favors outflow dominated MCS..with meso head spin ups

HRRR seems to continue the trend
  

edit: surface winds do pick up some here soon

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4 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

so far surface winds remain veered SW and light

this favors outflow dominated MCS..with meso head spin ups

HRRR seems to continue the trend
  

edit: surface winds do pick up some here soon

I don't think it's so much the surface winds, as it is the lack of stronger deep layer shear and low-level storm-relative flow (~20-25 kt and ~50-55 kt).  Both these measures are considerably weaker than they were for the event last weekend at this same time.

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Tornado Warning for... West central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas... Northeastern Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...Until 2:30 PM CDT

VERY clear hook echo on this cell.

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33 minutes ago, CryHavoc said:

Tornado warning for just south of Natchitoches, LA.

 

30 minutes ago, Derek30 said:

Original Nacogdoches storm tornado warned now

The ol' Nacogdoches/Natchitoches conundrum.  One, the other, or both?

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