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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Consistent with the trend in the general population. Funny how you failed to mention that. The vaccine will not prevent other forms of disease or death. 

I do wonder how the general public would perceive this part.  It could easily be misinterpreted imo, unless someone explains it to them.

 

In trials conducted in the US, four out of 21,720 participants who received the Pfizer vaccine suffered Bell's palsy, as opposed to none out of the 21,728 subjects in placebo group.

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9 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Your link indicates that only 10-15% experience significantly noticeable side effects. What I've read is most are nothing that a dose of Tylenol or Motrin wouldn't cover. Getting the vaccine so that I'm a dead end in a transmission chain is easily worth it to me. I'll probably be getting the vaccine in the next couple weeks, I'm second in line in my hospital behind the ICU, ER and first responders (police, fire, ems).

What do you mean about complications of getting pregnant? Generally speaking pregnant women are excluded from clinical trials and the recommendation will probably be to wait until after the pregnancy.

Regarding the allergic reactions, those are a risk of any treatment whether it be a vaccine or pill or infusion and will need to be monitored to see how common it is. Allergic reactions are almost always treatable. The few cases of bells palsy are still being looked into ( I'm a neurologist so this is in my wheel house) but generally speaking it's an annoying problem that the vast majority fully recover from with time.  What I read is that the early opinion is more likely that the cases of bells palsy were a coincidence.

Do we know the bolded part for a fact yet?  That somebody who was vaccinated can't transmit?  I mean, it seems quite plausible that they wouldn't.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I do wonder how the general public would perceive this part.  It could easily be misinterpreted imo, unless someone explains it to them.

 

 

 

Of course. Bob watcher from ucsf had a good graphic that ill have to find showing all the disease happenings in the general population that some will attempt to erroneously tie to a vaccination. 

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8 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Your link indicates that only 10-15% experience significantly noticeable side effects. What I've read is most are nothing that a dose of Tylenol or Motrin wouldn't cover. Getting the vaccine so that I'm a dead end in a transmission chain is easily worth it to me. I'll probably be getting the vaccine in the next couple weeks, I'm second in line in my hospital behind the ICU, ER and first responders (police, fire, ems).

What do you mean about complications of getting pregnant? Generally speaking pregnant women are excluded from clinical trials and the recommendation will probably be to wait until after the pregnancy.

Regarding the allergic reactions, those are a risk of any treatment whether it be a vaccine or pill or infusion and will need to be monitored to see how common it is. Allergic reactions are almost always treatable. The few cases of bells palsy are still being looked into ( I'm a neurologist so this is in my wheel house) but generally speaking it's an annoying problem that the vast majority fully recover from with time.  What I read is that the early opinion is more likely that the cases of bells palsy were a coincidence.

I updated my post with the pregnancy link.  I was incorrect, it's not complications, just as you mentioned, not recommend for pregnant women as they haven't been tested. 

Also , I thought I read you can still be asymptomatic and transmit the virus even after the vaccine.  I'll look for the article..

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Just now, Hoosier said:

I do wonder how the general public would perceive this part.  It could easily be misinterpreted imo, unless someone explains it to them.

 

 

 

Bell's palsy caused by the vaccine is certainly a possible adverse reaction but more data is needed to know if this signal in the phase III data continues as the vaccine is now being widely administered. Having only 4 people is too low to be a statistically significant difference.

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Do we know the bolded part for a fact yet?  That somebody who was vaccinated can't transmit?  I mean, it seems quite plausible that they wouldn't.

95% reduction in the risk of getting the virus effectively means that once I have the vaccine I will be a dead end for the virus.

This chart from the phase 3 data published in the NEJM is very powerful. It takes roughly 10 days from exposure to a foreign substance for the body to develop antibodies. That is just about the exact time when infections in the vaccine group go to a negligible level.

Figure 3 in the link below.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577#figures_media

 

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Just now, mattb65 said:

95% reduction in the risk of getting the virus effectively means that once I have the vaccine I will be a dead end for the virus.

This chart from the phase 3 data published in the NEJM is very powerful. It takes roughly 10 days from exposure to a foreign substance for the body to develop antibodies. That is just about the exact time when infections in the vaccine group go to a negligible level.

nejmoa2034577_f3.webp 198.48 kB · 1 download

Isn't that symptomatic covid matt? I thought they didn't do random rt pcr testing to find asymptomatic cases? 

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Isn't that symptomatic covid matt? I thought they didn't do random rt pcr testing to find asymptomatic cases? 

This is a good point, I wasn't sure and looked through the NEJM paper and some of the study protocol and it does appear that the study is designed to trigger tests only for symptomatic patients. It did not appear to have any random asymptomatic testing to detect whether or not it completely blocks asymptomatic infections.

I am inferring that because it blocks symptomatic infections that it probably blocks infections and doesn't just prevent symptoms.

That could be inaccurate, I still will be following all the appropriate masking and related public health interventions after getting the vaccine and until the rate of community spread is reduced to a degree that we can go back to normal. Hopefully by summer 2021 if everything goes well.

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Here's an estimate on when the pandemic will be over based on the projected rate of vaccinations and infections.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

tl;dr  probably June/July 2021 we get back to normal and defeat the virus finally.

500k death toll +/- 100k projected .

Many assumptions feed the model, the biggest ones imo are numbers willing to be vaccinated, no major adverse effects that reveal themself and cause vaccinations to halt and no major manufacturing logjams.

Related twitter posts discussing the model.

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1337147909955964929?s=19

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26 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Here's an estimate on when the pandemic will be over based on the projected rate of vaccinations and infections.

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

tl;dr  probably June/July 2021 we get back to normal and defeat the virus finally.

500k death toll +/- 100k projected .

Many assumptions feed the model, the biggest ones imo are numbers willing to be vaccinated, no major adverse effects that reveal themself and cause vaccinations to halt and no major manufacturing logjams.

Related twitter posts discussing the model.

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1337147909955964929?s=19

The part below seems awfully optimistic, if he literally means zero infections.

I think it will fade into the background over time, but complete eradication seems tough.  I also want to see this 95% efficacy number hold up after millions of vaccinations across all age groups and vulnerabilities.

 

"But due to imported cases and localized clusters, it is unlikely that new infections will drop to zero until 2022."

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we've become a third world country in some respects.  not in terms of wealth, but in terms of government and societal dysfunction.  we have 3000 people dying per day and slowly heading into a double-dip recession.  our government is incapable of addressing the needs of the people.  meanwhile, we have a gigantic fundraising scam going on ($500 million dollars and counting) that is completely based on a fake story ("rigged" election).  geez, donate your money to a food bank instead.  were people this stupid 20 years ago?  i'd like to think not, but maybe social media has made stupidity contagious.

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3 hours ago, dta1984 said:

Speaking of mental health, you doing ok?   Seem like you're wound a little tight.  Get some fresh air.  

You bring up mental health and your reply to someone you are assuming may have an issues is "get some fresh air". How about you get some god damn brains for once.

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9 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Wonder if we have passed the the peak of the surge in cases due to Thanksgiving. Total cases today may be below both yesterday (very unusual as cases usually step up until Friday) AND last Thursday. If we are actually peaking now it would be earlier than I expected.

We still generally aren't running more than 2 million tests a day though.

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19 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We still generally aren't running more than 2 million tests a day though.

True, I don't know how close we are to our testing capacity limits. At a certain point if you can only run so many tests total number of cases wont increase much unless positivity rises noticeably. Just read a story which mentions pool testing (which can help to increase testing capacity) breaks down once you start going above 10% positivity. U.S. is at ~11.4% 7-day average positivity right now.

 

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32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

17-4 in favor of approving the Pfizer vaccine.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/10/pfizer-covid-vaccine-fda-panel-recommends-approval-for-emergency-use.html

Curious about the reasoning by the 4 no voters.

I'm still concerned about the logistics. I don't really have the highest degree of confidence in this administration to pull this off

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31 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

LA County had 12,819 cases today, An unbelievable disaster is unfolding in California 

The entire state's per capita case numbers are now above the national average. When you consider their population size that's frightening. With that huge population they were a ticking time bomb that's now been set off.

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