• Member Statistics

    15,844
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    maley.chris78@gmail.com
    Newest Member
    [email protected]
    Joined

Recommended Posts

Drier pattern continues. Relative humidity is dropping under 20% early this afternoon. This is the driest start to the year since 2012. 

Central Park   FAIR      46   1  15 VRB7G21 
Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Mar 7
Missing Count
2020-03-07 5.10 1
2019-03-07 8.17 0
2018-03-07 11.66 0
2017-03-07 7.53 0
2016-03-07 9.06 0
2015-03-07 9.47 0
2014-03-07 8.31 0
2013-03-07 7.20 0
2012-03-07 5.01 0
2011-03-07 10.51 0
2010-03-07 8.85 0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The powerful offshore storm that brought 1"-3" snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket, along with winds that gusted past 50 mph continues to move away from the region. Starting tomorrow, much warmer air will begin streaming into the region. Afterward, an extended period of warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal conditions is likely.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -5.07 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.890.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 15, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March.

On March 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.797.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 49.5degs., or about 7degs. AN.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS) 45.5*[39/52] or about 2 or 3 degrees AN.    Some snow near the 22nd. is indicated.

With THK flat lining,  we will simply get closer to Normal during the next 16 days, without a real change:

2020030800_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

36* at 7am(really 6am with the clocks changing).       41* by 10am.        48* by Noon.       53* by 3pm.       55* at 4pm.         57* at 5pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Beautiful early spring weather. Mid to upper 60’s for the warm spots on Monday. Maybe someone could reach 70 with a guidance beat.

 

DC3F8644-50CA-4EC7-AE51-F5C42015425C.thumb.png.944d1e8fae20d64126ce2eec0f850a8d.png
 

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Beautiful early spring weather. Mid to upper 60’s for the warm spots on Monday. Maybe someone could reach 70 with a guidance beat.

 

DC3F8644-50CA-4EC7-AE51-F5C42015425C.thumb.png.944d1e8fae20d64126ce2eec0f850a8d.png
 

I love it if it’s not going to snow at least let’s get some warm air out here. It feels chilly outside 37 and sunny

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, SnowFeen1 said:

I love it if it’s not going to snow at least let’s get some warm air out here. It feels chilly outside 37 and sunny

The Southeast Ridge has become a permanent feature.

493C1493-F85A-4E07-A348-F93B24A2A711.thumb.png.7a72a6fa250545490bc9d9fe4a191837.png

BAB226B2-F4E0-4FDA-8FD4-1C1379F60B19.thumb.png.789f26953fb15edc4fbb1860c13d77c2.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Southeast Ridge has become a permanent feature.

493C1493-F85A-4E07-A348-F93B24A2A711.thumb.png.7a72a6fa250545490bc9d9fe4a191837.png

BAB226B2-F4E0-4FDA-8FD4-1C1379F60B19.thumb.png.789f26953fb15edc4fbb1860c13d77c2.png

This has to eventually break. 

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high.

you would need an actual storm for it to snow-shows nothing at all

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Brian5671 said:

you would need an actual storm for it to snow-shows nothing at all

Icon shows a snowstorm lol

  • Weenie 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high.

.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. 
  • Like 2
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 50s. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. 
.SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. 

Sunday night poppa Sunday night

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Chance of snow next weekend? Icon and gfs has a nice sprawling high.

Thank you for the laughs lol it’s over. It’s not cold enough to snow next weekend. See you in 10 months lol

  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

:facepalm:

The ICON at 180 hr that’s all they have left lol it’s going to be a long 10 months ahead for them

  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today was a springlike day. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s under brilliant sunshine and a light breeze. The day was ideal for outdoor activities and even early-season boating.

Larchmont03082020-3.jpg

Larchmont03082020-2.jpg

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The ICON at 180 hr that’s all they have left lol it’s going to be a long 10 months ahead for them

I agree it’s going to be long I’m feening right now. Kinda wanting to go to a resort for a weekend this way I get my feen out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the 50s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 59°; Allentown: 59°; Bridgeport: 52°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; and, Philadelphia: 59°.

Tomorrow will be even more springlike as thermometers top out in the upper 60s and perhaps even lower 70s in some places.

Overall, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures now lies ahead. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869).

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March.

The SOI was -1.29 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.453.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 16, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March.

On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.117 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.025.

A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The likelihood that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases has continued to increase.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got up to 60 today, slighty warmer than expected.

I see some Cherry blossoms and such really starting to open now..a few got a Feb head start. 

"Spring leaf out continues to spread up the middle of the country, three weeks earlier than a long-term average (1981-2010) in some locations. Washington, DC and New York City are 24 days early. Philadelphia, PA is 16 days early and Little Rock, AR is 9 days early.."

https://www.usanpn.org/news/spring

1050361176_StatusofSpring.thumb.png.71637cbd3142dfdf1d9a13346f88b9d7.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Perfectly normal temperatures for the first week of May.

I loathe climate change.

One or two days of anomalous warmth does not prove the climate is changing (even though it is). Records today from 2016 will be hard to beat - EWR: 82. NYC: 77. LGA: 75. JFK: 67. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averging 49.5degs., or about 7degs. AN.

Month to date is +6.4[45.4].        Should be about +6.7[47.5] by the 17th.

The next 17 days are averaging (06Z,GFS)  48degs., say [41/54], or about 5degs. AN.    No snow.

44* here at 7am.       47* by 10am.     50* at 11am.       55* at Noon.         60* at 1:30pm.        67* at 3:30pm.        Been 68* variously during 4pm and now, 6pm.       64* by 9pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Temperatures rising quickly into the 50’s with the drier conditions continuing.The warm spots should reach the upper 60’s with 70 possible with a guidance beat.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

80s by mid March? Euro/EPS have a massive 2012 style eastern ridge. 

Growing season will be 3-4 weeks ahead of schedule. 

I don’t see 80’s I see 70’s don’t hype up something that’s not showing up

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.