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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You and @Maestrobjwa should go halves on a cabin in the woods. 

lol! that actually made me laugh...

nah...too many questions. "what kind of firewood is that?  how should I stack it? Why stack it like that? History says...." hahaha.  Just kidding @Maestrobjwa

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

A +NAO and a 50/50 high with an amplified upper trough to our west is a disaster. Anyone want to explain to me how this look is full of potential? How could it possibly track underneath?

Unless/until I see lower heights showing up off the Canadian maritimes on approach, this is a goner. It's on to March. Except both the GEFS and the EPS now have a western US trough and a SE ridge lol. What I meant to say was..it's on to Spring.

gfs_z500a_namer_24.png

We basically wasted our last chance for snow here to the south today if that's the case.. anyways, I'm looking forward to warm temps.

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8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

If 300-400 miles south of us can score in this horrible pattern, we certainly could have.

 

Yea it’s “possible” but one threat in 7 weeks hitting one location isn’t good odds.  

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18 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Maybe we all can chip in and buy a weenie cabin out near Canaan or something?  

I could see telling  friends and family I was headed to a weenie cabin in the mountains.  There might be questions 

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55 minutes ago, Ji said:

Carolinas got snow with a severe positive ao and nao

Why know so little lol

I am assuming you meant "We know so little"?  I think we know quite a bit.  We know that snow is extremely hard to come by in a pattern like this, but obviously not impossible.  My area just got lucky today, that is all.  I feel grateful and a bit refreshed.  Still looking forward to next year (unless its a nina).

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Man if I was single...I'd be living in fort kent.. can you imagine a place where cutters can give you snow lol
My Dad has a cabin just outside Fort Kent...its amazing if you love snow and winter. I believe he's on his third or fourth roof snow removal already.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What do you mean NAM range? We haven't even gotten anything into the range where the op runs of the Globals become somewhat useful.

Now to be fair, I think we may have gotten into CFS range a time or two back in late December or early January.  But otherwise, yeah, not so much!! :lol:

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think from here on...no winter outlooks until December. Just don't do it, lol Don't even bother (unless it's a mod nino or something)

 

Wouldn't be prudent...at this juncture!

 

 

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I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that.

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I'll be happy with a 20" fantasy storm at 240hrs that doesn't verify at this point. Most winters we can at least get that.
Weve gotten less digital snow than real snow this winter

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19 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You cant make this up

gem_asnow_neus_40.png

Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol

No torturing going on here. I made my piece with this awful winter weeks ago. It is what it is and we probably are done till December.  Sure we could fluke into something but chances are low. It was the south easts turn to get the fluke.

I just thought the map was funny. North south east and west of us gets snow and our small area gets zippo.

 

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The follow up wave next week is close to dead. The problem is the lead wave misses the phase with the NS. The NS wave slides by to the north ahead of it and leaves it behind. Without that phase the lead wave sits, weakens, and dies without pulling cold in behind it so the next wave will amplify to our west and north where the boundary will be. 

That change is only 3-4 days out so the fact all guidance went that way makes it very reliable imo. Even if the storm we were watching is still 5-6 days out the dominoes that will determine its fate start falling the wrong way at only day 3 now. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The follow up wave next week is close to dead. The problem is the lead wave misses the phase with the NS. The NS wave slides by to the north ahead of it and leaves it behind. Without that phase the lead wave sits, weakens, and dies without pulling cold in behind it so the next wave will amplify to our west and north where the boundary will be. 

That change is only 3-4 days out so the fact all guidance went that way makes it very reliable imo. Even if the storm we were watching is still 5-6 days out the dominoes that will determine its fate start falling the wrong way at only day 3 now. 

The other variable was if you look back to yesterday's 12z Euro run at 500 hieght anomaly .... that follow up wave was entering the conus much further east . That put it on a real nice trajectory to come under us which verbatim it all but did . A couple Gfs runs also did this.  I'll still track it for the next couple days.  It's what we do :D

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5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why are you guys torturing yourself with these snow maps? I mean, mercy...a snow map240 hrs out? What in the world does that even mean in any kind of season--let alone one like this one? Lol

Hey....that's a dusting here :). Don't worry ...it will snow again...that's all that you have to know . If a weather hobby is torture then .....maby...well you get the idea . 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hey....that's a dusting here :). Don't worry ...it will snow again...that's all that you have to know . If a weather hobby is torture then .....maby...well you get the idea . 

Yeah this is just an extreme case of a locked in bad MA snow pattern.  We were just unlucky.  It will snow again someday. 

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Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter.

Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer.

1583539200-iHz61RnKm14.png

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14 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter.

Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer.

1583539200-iHz61RnKm14.png

Stick a fork in this winter. The pig to the north keeps restrengthing. 

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29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yawn. This h5 look is as bad as we have seen all winter.

Lets just hope we don't get our seasonal flip to a -NAO until June, where the only damage it can do is make things warmer.

1583539200-iHz61RnKm14.png

Lol. Talk everything in the wrong spots.

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