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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Count me with Ji in the "not at all comforted to see a suppressed solution" in the long range.  We could definitely see something suppressed.  We did a few times this year, often so suppressed that nothing ended up happening or it was a rain event for NC that would have been snow up here.  So I am not saying I expect it to actually snow a lot in the south...but in this type of progressive pattern the most likely outcomes are either cutter or weak suppressed wave.  We are in the least likely in between zone.  The prospects of a pattern change towards the end of February have way more interest to me than anything else.  

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Count me with Ji in the "not at all comforted to see a suppressed solution" in the long range.  We could definitely see something suppressed.  We did a few times this year, often so suppressed that nothing ended up happening or it was a rain event for NC that would have been snow up here.  So I am not saying I expect it to actually snow a lot in the south...but in this type of progressive pattern the most likely outcomes are either cutter or weak suppressed wave.  We are in the least likely in between zone.  The prospects of a pattern change towards the end of February have way more interest to me than anything else.  

Ah so basically...this has a low likelihood and really not worth tracking? (I could understand that...if those are the only two options then perhaps we should just skip it?)

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15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah so basically...this has a low likelihood and really not worth tracking? (I could understand that...if those are the only two options then perhaps we should just skip it?)

we are probably 15 days away from someting worth tracking.....March 4 seems to be a good time for snowstorms or fake snowstorms in modeling. Ask PSU about the March 4,2001 event lol

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Checks in this morning. Things on the up and up. Checks in just now. Things are a dumpster fire. Rinse and repeat every damn day. :axe:

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Checks in this morning. Things on the up and up. Checks in just now. Things are a dumpster fire. Rinse and repeat every damn day. :axe:

Definition of insanity.  But tomorrow will be different.......

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12 minutes ago, Ji said:

we are probably 15 days away from someting worth tracking.....March 4 seems to be a good time for snowstorms or fake snowstorms in modeling. Ask PSU about the March 4,2001 event lol

Man I don't wanna hear about any dang upper elevation snowstorm, lol I'm like Bob...if it ain't odds for here I ain't interested. For March, give me an 8 incher or more and we can talk (heck, I'd even take right at WSW criteria). March saves are awful down here and may have only happened 3 times (at the most) in our history.

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6 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Checks in this morning. Things on the up and up. Checks in just now. Things are a dumpster fire. Rinse and repeat every damn day. :axe:

I didn't think the runs were that bad...but if what PSU said is true and that the two more likely options are suppressed or cutter...then no, not a particularly good day. But, ya never know...

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10 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Checks in this morning. Things on the up and up. Checks in just now. Things are a dumpster fire. Rinse and repeat every damn day. :axe:

Drink a beer and check back in 30 mins or so. 

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5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I see it's been par for the course in here. :lol:

I think a coating of snow from a suppressed, strung out mess the 12z Euro gave to NC late next week has some folks shook up in here.

 

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Six to 10 day outlook for Feb 19-23 calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in MD.  Likely a cold and dry / cool and wet scenario given the unfavorable Pacific but who knows 

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Six to 10 day outlook for Feb 19-23 calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in MD.  Likely a cold and dry / cool and wet scenario given the unfavorable Pacific but who knows 
Yep below normal when its bone dry and above normal when we have precip

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Just now, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:
Six to 10 day outlook for Feb 19-23 calls for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation in MD.  Likely a cold and dry / cool and wet scenario given the unfavorable Pacific but who knows 

Yep below normal when its bone dry and above normal when we have precip

I would just take some actual damn cold at this point. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I would just take some actual damn cold at this point. 

Savor the next couple days. Mid teens tomorrow night. Then back in the 50s with another cutter next week.

DW our time will come. March.

Next March, for sure.

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I would just take some actual damn cold at this point. 
That's more depressing knowing there is zero chance you will see snow from it

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29 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think a coating of snow from a suppressed, strung out mess the 12z Euro gave to NC late next week has some folks shook up in here.

 

Kind of confused here. Models were showing our snow chances starting to increase roughly day 9/10 and onward. And after just looking over the GEFS and the EPS that doesn't look like that has really changed. So what are some people worried about? The system that comes before that time period?

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Kind of confused here. Models were showing our snow chances starting to increase roughly day 9/10 and onward. And after just looking over the GEFS and the EPS that doesn't look like that has really changed. So what are some people worried about? The system that comes before that time period?
You mean like this d11 12 image?74e9997921e50770ce949469eb2fe269.jpg

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Just now, showmethesnow said:

Kind of confused here. Models were showing our snow chances starting to increase roughly day 9/10 and onward. And after just looking over the GEFS and the EPS that doesn't look like that has really changed. So what are some people worried about? The system that comes before that time period?

Probably my post yesterday saying I had a morbid interest in next week. That must have done it. lol.

The GEFS did look pretty good for a couple runs. For the record, I am no longer morbidly interested. 

Otherwise, yeah things never looked very promising until the end of the month- IF the advertised pattern change is real.

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