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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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I am moving (bye bye Stephens City) on March 3 and 4.  If there is any chance of a winter storm this year, then it is likely to happen then.

Of course, it's far more likely that we just continue to add to our 35F rain totals during those 2 days.

Hoping for sunny and 50F.

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33 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The bottom line lol.

With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

February showers bring March flowers

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3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I am moving (bye bye Stephens City) on March 3 and 4.  If there is any chance of a winter storm this year, then it is likely to happen then.

Of course, it's far more likely that we just continue to add to our 35F rain totals during those 2 days.

Hoping for sunny and 50F.

Where to?

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16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

Was just about to post something similar. Control's value is in the medium range when it either agrees or doesn't agree with the op. Other than that it's just another ens member

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

My understanding of the control run is that it's essentially an unperturbed ensemble- it has the same initial conditions as the op, but is run at a lower resolution like the other ensemble members. Not surprising then that it could occasionally produce a different outcome than both the higher res op, and the perturbed ensemble members.

Makes sense, I know Bob pointed out a few days ago how the control seems to regularly spit out snow storms for our area. Just interesting to note. 

Another cool seasonal repeating  phenomenon, and I think this goes back to last winter as well,  the under modeled SE ridge and expansive WAR and how storms always seem to trend NW in time and the scarcity, for the most part, of suppressed systems.   Repeating theme, 20 % coastal huger, 70 % cutter and at times a  suppressed system 10 %  .  % are estimated on my part. 

The seasonal models forecasting  of an active STJ was correct but the lack of cold and blocking had always guaranteed rain versus snow.

Lastly I believe a record sub sonic flight was set this weekend at an average speed of over 800 mph shaving 1 hour and 17  minutes off a flight leaving maybe NYC and going across the pond. That is remarkable, sorry I can not recall the exact departure and arrival locations.   

Next up is watching the Atlantic  Basin ahead of the hurricane season and the East Coast SST profile. Might be an early beach season if Spring is not cold. 

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Was just about to post something similar. Control's value is in the medium range when it either agrees or doesn't agree with the op. Other than that it's just another ens member

Yeah to me it's value would be to act as a 'check' on the op, where the op could go off on a tangent due to the higher resolution.

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@frd the nw trend from med/long range has been happening for years. Especially when there's no blocking. However, it works both ways. The 2013-15 stretch had an unusual # of south trends from that range. The key is to identify the recurring pattern and use it as a mental adjustment to nwp output. This year is a no brainer considering how terrible tne LW pattern has been.

Eta: i wouldnt say the control has a tendency with storms. I only post it when there is one. Lol

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46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

The bottom line lol.

With climo "normal" temps on the rise over the next couple weeks and no mechanism to deliver anomalous cold, there will still be plenty of days in the 50s.

I stand corrected. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where to?

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  :lol:

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  The prospect of returning home was appealing to me, but the real disappointment is losing out on that elevation.  Summer days are 6 -7 degrees cooler up there and snow hangs on for far longer.

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11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  :lol:

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  Although the prospect of returning home was appealing to me.

Maybe by you moving it will change everyone's luck.

Congrats on your new property.

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Congratulations NPZ!!

I'm very happy for you. And for us. Looked at the annual Virginia precipitation map and you just moved to the driest region in all of the state. Even dryer than Stephens City. I can't wait till you post tumbleweeds again.

 

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11 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Maybe by you moving it will change everyone's luck.

Congrats on your new property.

 

9 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Congratulations NPZ!!

I'm very happy for you. And for us. Looked at the annual Virginia precipitation map and you just moved to the driest region in all of the state. Even dryer than Stephens City. I can't wait till you post tumbleweeds again.

 

Thanks to you both.  But curse you, Stormpc!

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1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Out 522N.  Just NW of Lake Holiday.

Hopefully I did not buy property in another precip shadow desert.  :lol:

At least I got an extra 260' elevation. 

Unbelievably, we got beat- out on a 2000' property in Linden.  We got a lot more land with this place though and being NW offers some advantages too at times.  The prospect of returning home was appealing to me, but the real disappointment is losing out on that elevation.  Summer days are 6 -7 degrees cooler up there and snow hangs on for far longer.

You’re gonna be happy there. Looking to move out that way myself.

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41 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

 

Thanks to you both.  But curse you, Stormpc!

Awesome !  Yes, good bye Stephens City.  My oldest brother still lives there on Whyte Avenue.  Spent many summer days on the lake as a kid and wired many of the homes there. 

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WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model.  Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z.  This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched.

 

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-2232400.png

gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-2286400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2275600.png

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS likes next Friday for some reason.  It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z.  Probably a mirage, but what else we got?

Exactly...rather chase a unicorn at under Day 10 then punt the rest of February waiting for a pattern change...the EPS control at OZ got my attention.  I know everyone says it is just another ensemble member, but it means the GFS is not completely out to lunch...at least until the 12Z EURO shows it to be partly cloudy and in the 60s late next week..... :)

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS likes next Friday for some reason.  It dropped it at 6z, but it keeps showing up on the other runs and now again at 12z.  Probably a mirage, but what else we got?

Well, if it stays on for the next 2 days, we might have something

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 Probably a mirage, but what else we got?

Apparently a lot of unfrozen ground, mud, and water. If we tracked mud this would be the 09-10 of mud winters

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6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Well, if it stays on for the next 2 days, we might have something

2 days and I wouldn't even flinch.  This year want to see it on the 18 Feb run to be enthused. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Apparently a lot of unfrozen ground, mud, and water. If we tracked mud this would be the 09-10 of mud winters

Not for long.  By Saturday morning you'll be chopping it up in mud ice cubes .

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not for long.  By Saturday morning you'll be chopping it up in mud ice cubes .

That's true. If I wasn't such a cold weather baby riding bikes I would take advantage but man, cold like this weekend steals all the fun out of riding. 

On topic: I agree with everyone who thinks something can pop up out of nowhere when the PNA ridge builds. No idea if it's really going to build and even less of an idea of whether or not it sticks around for more than a few days. During +AO/NAO periods the most common theme for surprise events is a +PNA. We'll know soon enough but for now my expectations remain quite low (like everybody). If it works, great and if not, oh well. 

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1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS for late next week.....not saying it is correct, but it is something to track under Day 10 that has been pretty consistent with this model.  Let's see if we see it on more than the EURO control at 12Z.  This will not verify verbatim, but the fact the model keeps trying to develop a storm to our SE needs to be watched.

 

gfs-deterministic-east-instant_ptype-2232400.png

gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-2286400.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2275600.png

We will all get killed by flying pigs twice before we catch a break in that pattern.

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