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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Here he comes to wreck the daaayyy!   Just kidding reality bites. Thanks for posting 

I set the bar higher on the probability posts by looking at 3 inches or more.  Think it is too optimistic to use the one inch maps which inflates the probability.  15 of the 20 or 75% show some “frozen” but who cares if you have to get out the microscope to measure it in real life.

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Here he comes to wreck the daaayyy!   Just kidding reality bites. Thanks for posting 

On the positive side, about 12/20 get at least an inch to or around the cities. At a 6 day lead, I'm more interested in that.  Don't tell me at this point we all wouldn't be very happy to wake up to an inch of the white stuff on Sunday morning. 

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Agreed, but do you really think that inch is going to accumulate on ground this warm?  It is not realistic.

No probably not.  Is that it?  Did you see anything else promising beyond that?  I haven’t looked. Don’t want to actually.  

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Agreed, but do you really think that inch is going to accumulate on ground this warm?  It is not realistic.

:facepalm:

Aren't we talking about the potential next Sunday? That's in like 6 days. Totally different airmass. 

 

This is saturday morning. Before precip moves in saturday night. 

 

gfs_T2m_neus_21.png

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7 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

On the positive side, about 12/20 get at least an inch to or around the cities. At a 6 day lead, I'm more interested in that.  Don't tell me at this point we all wouldn't be very happy to wake up to an inch of the white stuff on Sunday morning. 

Agreed. A chance at an all snow event of any size is great at this point. It's not moisture starved clipper type of event. It's a pacific shortwave that taps the gulf a bit on its way across the country. Fast moving and not very amplified so as is I would guess 1-2/2-4 kind of deal best case scenario. EPS has a few bigger hits in the mix so I suppose there's a bit more potential. Otoh- every single "event" this year has degraded in the medium/short range.  Hard to bet against that but at least we finally have a discrete event at a 1 week range to discuss. How long until it goes poof this time? Lol

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

The ground doesn’t warm up in a couple of days. LOL 

We go around in this circle every.single.year. It can be in the 50s for a week straight and snow will stick easily at 32-33. Happens every single time 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We go around in this circle every.single.year. It can be in the 50s for a week straight and snow will stick easily at 32-33. Happens every single time 

Not to mention that this particular event has the potential to be coming in at night time in early February. 

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I can say emphatically that I have seen on numerous occasions bare pavement and nothing on Capital Hill in DC and several inches in the nearby suburbs outside the Beltway with the same storm.  If it snows an inch outside the Beltway as depicted I am skeptical the inside the Beltway crowd see anything.

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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I can say emphatically that I have seen on numerous occasions bare pavement and nothing on Capital Hill in DC and several inches in the nearby suburbs outside the Beltway with the same storm.  If it snows an inch outside the Beltway as depicted I am skeptical the inside the Beltway crowd see anything.

That’s the trade off for living in civilization. Thems the breaks.

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

That’s the trade off for living in civilization. Thems the breaks.

Yes it is.  I currently work in DC and live in Brunswick.  I see the rain/snow line on the train rides.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yes it is.  I currently work in DC and live in Brunswick.  I see the rain/snow line on the train rides.

Some steep hills in Brunswick bet it's fun of it ever snows

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18z Euro crushes the DC south and sw burbs with rain . Its showing 4 to 4.5 " in several spots and that's only thru Fri 12z . Wish it was snow lol 

Edit ...actually lollies of 5.5 inches 

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We continue to hit bottom.  You think we’ve hit bottom and then floor gives out and there is another bottom.  A months worth of precip in Feb all rain.  

I saw a ring around the moon. Didn't that used to mean snow was on the way?

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3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I saw a ring around the moon. Didn't that used to mean snow was on the way?

Now we are resorting to voodoo and folklore?... Let me check.  Yes ring.  I’m in!

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17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Euro crushes the DC south and sw burbs with rain . Its showing 4 to 4.5 " in several spots and that's only thru Fri 12z . Wish it was snow lol 

Edit ...actually lollies of 5.5 inches 

Yeah, been following that a bit. Thinking river flooding (in addition to flash flooding) may become an issue later this week. It’s not winter weather but at least it’s boring weather. 5 inches of rain in some places in about 36-48 hours or so according to EURO

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12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I saw a ring around the moon. Didn't that used to mean snow was on the way?

Actually in my experience it usually is a signal that cold is coming. It may be foolish but I’m always on the lookout for that.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually in my experience it usually is a signal that cold is coming. It may be foolish but I’m always on the lookout for that.

I always heard bad weather 

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19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually in my experience it usually is a signal that cold is coming. It may be foolish but I’m always on the lookout for that.

It is coming:D..

Wednesday will be mid 30s for highs n+w it appears.  A far cry from mid 60s today . I took advantage of today but I prefer cold and snow . Its winter after all lol. Plenty and plenty of sunny and warm days 8 months out of the year .

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Sunday threat ...

18z Euro control puts down 2-4" thru Sun afternoon with a bit more to come near i95 and east .

Just looked at surface temps and they're warm Sunday afternoon so definitely late Saturday night early Sun preferred verbatim 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Sunday threat ...

18z Euro control puts down 2-4" thru Sun afternoon with a bit more to come near i95 and east .

Where, region wide or just MD?

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’ll never stick. B)

Yea ..I know ..right :lol: . I remember in late March of 93' or 94' I believe.  It was 85 degrees and 2  days later 2-3" of snow fell and stuck even to roads for a time  in Catonsville  CCC .

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