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WinterWxLuvr

February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There are too many scattered pieces . If you go back to prior runs of gfs and cmc those pieces are just now showing up. When this happens I think it makes models jumpy and unreliable at range.

the main thing we need that we didnt get from the euro is cold air. Lets make sure we get the cold air first

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Just now, Ji said:

the main thing we need that we didnt get from the euro is cold air. Lets make sure we get the cold air first

I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I didn't like 0z ens suite. If anything the 0z runs strengthen the case for a nothingburger more than showing promise. We'll see if that flips here over the next few hours. 

i dont think we have gotten consecutive good runs of anything this winter. Everytime something promising shows up...its quickly dashed the next run. Look at the 00z and 12z Icon

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think we have gotten consecutive good runs of anything this winter. Everytime something promising shows up...its quickly dashed the next run. Look at the 00z and 12z Icon

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

ETA: lol- it's a blocked 36-48 hour storm. dropping 1.5 - 3"+ of QPF region wide. Did someone mention the 0z control last night? One of the best digital storms of the year. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

the euro control is last years FV3 on drugs. When has the euro control every come close to verifying. The EPS last night basically sucked through D15

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Just now, Ji said:

the euro control is last years FV3 on drugs. When has the euro control every come close to verifying. The EPS last night basically sucked through D15

At least look at the multi param panels starting at hr330. It even reminds me of Jan 16... When you only have fantasy digital snow it's nice to see a really big fantasy storm even if the odds are terrible. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Did you look at the euro control from 0z? MA special. Just like the 09-10 storms. Big hit with WAA followed by a CCB shellacking. You get almost 2 feet. The only issue is it's d13-14. Big ones are sniffed out early and we're due and it's Feb and blah blah blah....

The Euro and/or GFS  has had something for the VD/PD weekend on and off for at least 2 weeks.  I’m not holding my breath this time, but maybe one of these long term storms will actually pay off. 

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I'd have to review Jan 2016 again because my detailed memory of the upper levels is lacking but there are structural similarities. Unusual west based block moving lock step with the ULL and a beast 50/50 in place. If it's going to be a one and done year let's do it this way...

bdRXt0O.png

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I'd have to review Jan 2016 again because my detailed memory of the upper levels is lacking but there are structural similarities. Unusual west based block moving lock step with the ULL and a beast 50/50 in place. If it's going to be a one and done year let's do it this way...

bdRXt0O.png

dude there is a whole thread that got bumped that has everything you need in it

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Bob just promised a Jan 16 repeat.

I didn't. The 0z euro control did. Each weenie must decide for themselves if they believe a control ens member 330 hours in advance. La la lockitup

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

i dont think we have gotten consecutive good runs of anything this winter. Everytime something promising shows up...its quickly dashed the next run. Look at the 00z and 12z Icon

But the 12z ICON still showed at hit this time, did it not?

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Just now, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Start coughing on Tuesday. Casually mention you have family that travel to China on a regular basis. Inquire as to the status of the Coronavirus. Then just stand back and let it happen.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Just drink 18 coronas the night before and call in the morning and just say I'm sick from Corona. Perfectly truthful and 100% chance of getting off work. 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

I threw my back out, I caught a stomach bug, my 3rd cousin died, or the dog ate my homework should do the trick. 

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just 

Always fall back on sick kid or the ophthalmology appointment. 

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12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

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11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If this thing ends up hitting, my criteria for trying to get out of this work trip next week is 10+.   Anybody have a good excuse I could come up with?  You know, just in case.

Hemmoroids is always a reliable excuse 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs doesn't support the suppressed solution much at all. A mix of ok hits and/or rain for the most part. Decent agreement that the shortwave/ULL makes a run at us. Some west tracks in there for sure. 

ETA: after looping the member solutions there is a cluster with a slider. Pretty much an equal mix of slider, snow, mixed, and rain. Basically the GEFS says all options on the table and the model has no idea what will happen yet. 

translation: Euro wont budge

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14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Start coughing on Tuesday. Casually mention you have family that travel to China on a regular basis. Inquire as to the status of the Coronavirus. Then just stand back and let it happen.

You sound like you've done this before, lolol

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19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Hemmoroids is always a reliable excuse 

Oh crap, I guess I have fallen to your level. That was the excuse I was just about to post.

eta: Sorry, from reading all the comments I momentarily confused this with the banter thread. :lol:

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