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February Observations.


FLweather
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current-temperature.png

Good to see there's some chilly air somewhere, though certainly not cold for early Feb. I think this pic gives an excellent snapshot of the general pattern over the past several winters. Trough over the Mid West/N Rockies with an SER and mild East in general. Either this is just a multi-year pattern that won't go away or it's becoming the new climo. I hope it's a multi-year pattern that will change soon, but I fear the worst...

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The ever-present caveat for Thursday's potential heavy rain event...

One important, potential caveat worth mentioning is that 
historically, whenever you have such a strong, dynamic system 
digging as far south as the GOM, there is the potential to see a 
reduction in QPF downstream(across our latitude), due to the 
likelihood of organized upstream convection racing east within the 
axis of moderate instability (~1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) in place across the 
Deep South/eastern Gulf Coast region. An alternate scenario such as 
this has played out numerous times, and this system definitely fits
into the conceptual model. 
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