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weatherwiz

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the Euro had gotten one storm correct all winter, I’d be somewhat excited. 2 correct and I’d be hyping. Alas, I’m just going to bed sad. 

One run but a colder one. Something to watch. Sleep tight in your footy PJs with the velcro dumper in the back

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Empirically there’s been too many off-hour Euro flip flops for me this season. I’ll wait for 00z before believing any colder trend.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Empirically there’s been too many off-hour Euro flip flops for me this season. I’ll wait for 00z before believing any colder trend.

Yes, Its done it a lot this year both at 06z and 18z only to revert back at 0z and 12z, That has been what has sucked folks in.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This year you have to favor warmest and not snowy outcomes. What can go wrong does and outperforms itself. My point is there’s something globally/ atmosphericically this winter that all of us and modeling has missed or is missing. 

Globally (NH), we have gone through a remarkably long stretch of a relatively flat flow with zero blocking, no persistent large-scale amplified trough / ridge couplets; no real anchor features; true arctic air has not be a regular visitor to the middle latitudes anywhere across the NH.  Why??? I have no clue.  Even in many of our blah / ratter winters, there were strong features causing havoc elsewhere; this year not so much.  The oceans are very warm on a widespread basis though and maybe the lack of sst gradients are playing a role???

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We’ve had a pretty raging +AO since the end of Dec and the GEFS have it heading into 6SD territory over the next week.

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5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Empirically there’s been too many off-hour Euro flip flops for me this season. I’ll wait for 00z before believing any colder trend.

UKMET similar

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’ve had a pretty raging +AO since the end of Dec and the GEFS have it heading into 6SD territory over the next week.

Off the charts. That will build up that Arctic ice

global_ao_2020020312.png

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6 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Hmm...we’re in a rebuilding year kind of like how the 2020 Sox will be in one too. 

El nino mookie?

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I wanted to get out today and ski at Sundown, but it was a cloudy day this morning. The mountain faces West and doesn't get direct light for most of the day. The week ahead looks dismal for local skiing.
You couldn't ski today because it was cloudy this morning?

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2 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Cold air where cold air belongs. Boom. It’s called the artic after all.

Arctic

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2 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

You couldn't ski today because it was cloudy this morning?

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Yea I scratched my head at that one too.

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Arctic

Artic is obviously wrong, but it always surprised me how many here go with “wintery” versus the more common “wintry”.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Artic is obviously wrong, but it always surprised me how many here go with “wintery” versus the more common “wintry”.

I always mess that one up.  I type it correctly then I feel it looks funny so I retype it incorrectly.   Then that feels wrong.  

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Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Laughing at me cause I left out the “c”. Okay

I laughed? I just went off on a tangent. 

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19 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

You couldn't ski today because it was cloudy this morning?

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I don't like skiing when I can't see the snow surface, is that a problem? My eyesight isn't that good with my disease.

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4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I don't like skiing when I can't see the snow surface, is that a problem?

No contrast...I understand that.  Sledding when it’s cloudy..you can’t see the trail as sharply, snow and sky look alike..similar color.  I get it. 

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11 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

You are right. I overreacted. I apologize. I am sensitive Bi$$$ some may say

You cool

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6 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I don't like skiing when I can't see the snow surface, is that a problem? My eyesight isn't that good with my disease.

With the right goggle colors you can correct for low light

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No contrast...I understand that.  Sledding when it’s cloudy..you can’t see the trail as sharply, snow and sky look alike..similar color.  I get it. 

And with weak legs I want to avoid ice and uneaven snow. I have more confidence with sunshine and a good field of vision.

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47 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Empirically there’s been too many off-hour Euro flip flops for me this season. I’ll wait for 00z before believing any colder trend.

Ya that beotch is flipping back at 0z for sure.  I ain’t buying that 18z nonsense again.

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