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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If the Euro had gotten one storm correct all winter, I’d be somewhat excited. 2 correct and I’d be hyping. Alas, I’m just going to bed sad. 

One run but a colder one. Something to watch. Sleep tight in your footy PJs with the velcro dumper in the back

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Empirically there’s been too many off-hour Euro flip flops for me this season. I’ll wait for 00z before believing any colder trend.

Yes, Its done it a lot this year both at 06z and 18z only to revert back at 0z and 12z, That has been what has sucked folks in.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This year you have to favor warmest and not snowy outcomes. What can go wrong does and outperforms itself. My point is there’s something globally/ atmosphericically this winter that all of us and modeling has missed or is missing. 

Globally (NH), we have gone through a remarkably long stretch of a relatively flat flow with zero blocking, no persistent large-scale amplified trough / ridge couplets; no real anchor features; true arctic air has not be a regular visitor to the middle latitudes anywhere across the NH.  Why??? I have no clue.  Even in many of our blah / ratter winters, there were strong features causing havoc elsewhere; this year not so much.  The oceans are very warm on a widespread basis though and maybe the lack of sst gradients are playing a role???

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No contrast...I understand that.  Sledding when it’s cloudy..you can’t see the trail as sharply, snow and sky look alike..similar color.  I get it. 

And with weak legs I want to avoid ice and uneaven snow. I have more confidence with sunshine and a good field of vision.

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