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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs wants to get everyone involved fwiw Between synoptic, Enhancement and lake effect. 

Yeah but...GFS...  ;)

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Well over a foot for BUF on the 06z GFS with Kuchie and still over a foot with 10:1. Obviously overdone but am not confident in at least advisory criteria for us. 

526E0284-AAC9-4FF8-9B91-D0DEC1B216F5.png

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51 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Well over a foot for BUF on the 06z GFS with Kuching and still over a foot with 10:1. Obviously overdone but am not confident in at least advisory criteria for us. 

526E0284-AAC9-4FF8-9B91-D0DEC1B216F5.png

Seems like lots if things changed last night...

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9 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Agree, but even dividing those numbers by 5 (which is similar to what you're eluding to) still yields a statistically significant "snowstorm" for Toronto.  I'm happy to see them at least have a shot.  

Toronto is an unbelievably snowless location for its latitude and proximity to the great lakes (which obviously don't help them).  Look at these pitiful numbers...

If they even got 7 inches it would be their largest single day snowfall in over a decade, AMAZING

Most snow to fall in one day during recent years in Toronto
Inches    Date    
3.5    November 15, 2018    
6.1    February 12, 2017    
5.4    December 11, 2016    
4.1    February 21, 2015    
6.9    December 11, 2014    
4.1    December 14, 2013    
5.0    February 02, 2012    
2.5    February 26, 2011   
5.3    January 28, 2010    
 

What about February 7, 2013. I could have sworn we saw over a foot with that storm.

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Winter storm watch issued..

WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Long duration heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations in excess of 2 feet possible. Snowfall rates may
  reach over 2 inches per hour at times. Winds could gust as high
  as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest snow
  amounts are expected to focus across the Tug Hill Plateau.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening
  commutes.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Even the local scrubs are showing 6"+ for Wednesday night and Thursday...KBUF...asleep at the wheel...again...

Yeah, after quickly checking the overnight runs was expecting some type of headline for NIag Frontier from BUF, but nada. 

  • Haha 2

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It’s hard to get too excited about this event here. Too far East for synoptic snow and too far south for lake effect.  Guess I’ll get my popcorn and beer and be a spectator.

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

What about February 7, 2013. I could have sworn we saw over a foot with that storm.

Maybe didn't make the list as the snowfall occurred overnight and was accounted for over 2 calendar days?  That's why a lot of why records "miss" some actual storms?

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Crazy last minute model runs. Winter storm warning for all of wny based on model consensus.

Yeah except the folks with their hands on the button are unimpressed...

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Latest SREF plumes for KSYR. Looks like a couple inches with the CFROPA and a few inches of LES. Total of 5-6" based on the mean. Still continues to trend up each run 

Screenshot_20200225-080604_Chrome~2.jpg

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31 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

It’s hard to get too excited about this event here. Too far East for synoptic snow and too far south for lake effect.  Guess I’ll get my popcorn and beer and be a spectator.

You will get in on the action as well bro, flow will turn WNW later Friday into Saturday.  Global models look pretty good out that way as well fwiw.. Obviously not as much as the tug but that's to be expected lol

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Here was the 6z global and regional Canadian..

You can see some differences in where the enhancement starts off, global more Westerly while regional more WSW..Nam has been going back and forth between Westerly and wsw.. Meanwhile the European models have very little WSW and keep it mostly west-wnw, crushing central Oswego county..

SN_000-084_0000 (6).gif

SN_000-072_0000 (19).gif

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

It’s gonna be close for Rochester. Ultimately, I gotta believe the models, best thermals just N and W. It’s a heartbreak and I’m gonna be hoping on ‘dynamic cooling’ whatever that is. 

This is that critical frame!  It’s a race between the cold air and precip. There’s likely gonna be a disappointed back side area!

508734A5-CDA5-4F18-9677-4CCB3370141B.png

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