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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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As Matt mentioned in the previous thread, the +NAO has been detrimental. We haven't had a continuous -NAO in DJF since 2010-11. 

Most of us can get by with a neutral to slightly positive NAO but only if other indices can help us out. A strong La Niña similar to 2010-11 or 2007-08 will help reset the balance, imo. <<< Australia could use it. 

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Ship is slowly sailing..

This one had some potential lol

Northern stream may drop an inch or two, whoop de do..

Icon is one of the farther NW models too..lol

Euro and EPS have been unphased this entire time, so far..

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40 (2).png

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7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

As Matt mentioned in the previous thread, the +NAO has been detrimental. We haven't had a continuous -NAO in DJF since 2010-11. 

Most of us can get by with a neutral to slightly positive NAO but only if other indices can help us out. A strong La Niña similar to 2010-11 or 2007-08 will help reset the balance, imo. <<< Australia could use it. 

It's been a combination of not just the +NAO but the -PNA and +EPO/+WPO. All the indices have been going the wrong way. It takes a lot to go wrong to get nearly +10 temps in January. If we get one indice to go the right way, the rest don't. Right now we have a PNA ridge but the EPO is really positive. 

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So I'm pretty convinced that Oswego county (outside of the tug) is the dink and dunk capital of the east coast lol

Places like Fulton are no different than Syracuse, they just dink and dunk more lol

Here is the#of daily Snowfalls compared to annual Snowfall for Fulton, over the last 5 years..

2015-2016  45 Snowfalls 106.2"

2016-2017 63 Snowfalls 159.8"

2017-2018 63 Snowfalls 174.2"

2018-2019 72 Snowfalls 139.8"

2019-2020 39 Snowfalls 51.3'

About 80% of events are trace-3" lol

Maybe 5-10% is an actual decent event..

Expectations now in check lol

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Here's to hoping we get a couple big ones to satisfy the board here. Haven't even been able to use the new sleds we got the kids for Christmas...

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's been a combination of not just the +NAO but the -PNA and +EPO/+WPO. All the indices have been going the wrong way. It takes a lot to go wrong to get nearly +10 temps in January. If we get one indice to go the right way, the rest don't. Right now we have a PNA ridge but the EPO is really positive. 

I agree they've all been bad this winter. The PNA itself is useless without support from other indices. I'd be disappointed if we finally get some blocking in March and April and it ends up ruining Spring like in recent years. Just another awful winter in the string of awful winters since the 90s.

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4 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree they've all been bad this winter. The PNA itself is useless without support from other indices. I'd be disappointed if we finally get some blocking in March and April and it ends up ruining Spring like in recent years. Just another awful winter in the string of awful winters since the 90s.

Yeah for me my favorite winter months are Dec/Jan. Storms in Feb and especially March just don't do it for me unless they are large ones. If we got another Feb 2007 or March 2008 that would be a different story. 

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah for me my favorite winter months are Dec/Jan. Storms in Feb and especially March just don't do it for me unless they are large ones. If we got another Feb 2007 or March 2008 that would be a different story. 

I agree completely. My favorite winter period is from late Nov - early Feb. By mid-late Feb the Sun angle begins increasing and overall temps do as well. It's rare in our climate to get the same kind of Arctic outbreaks we'd get in Dec or Jan in late Feb and March. Winter just doesn't feel the same by then. 

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1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Icon gives me 6-12 inches of snow wow! Strong storm big blizzard. What a run

Yeah, but its the ICON.  soo......

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57 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First time this has showed up. Decent W/SW flow LES.

gfs_T850_us_39.png

This would have been a beauty about six weeks ago.

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Ukmet was a little better but it's pretty strong and compact..We need more Northern stream interaction to blossom the NW flank, which is what the Icon does..

Quite a bit of work to be done, that's for sure lol

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (18).png

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It'll miss to the southeast, and then the Northern Stream will come in after and lift up milder air to give us showers...then some snow showers on the back side.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First time this has showed up. Decent W/SW flow LES.

gfs_T850_us_39.png

Don't worry that will be a Bermuda high with +10 anomalies by tomorrow

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34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Ukmet was a little better but it's pretty strong and compact..We need more Northern stream interaction to blossom the NW flank, which is what the Icon does..

Quite a bit of work to be done, that's for sure lol

sfcwind_mslp.us_ne (18).png

It's over, the Euro was a complete fish storm on the 12z.  The following system is rain up to Hudson Bay.  Next week can already be written off.  At this point, I'm just hoping we get one Monster March Blizzard, which is actually climatologically favorable.  

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It all just seems so odd to me. Storm is suppressed, yet our high will be in the 30s/40s over the weekend...sooo, we get showers. Such a frustrating winter.

We had snow showers all day today, but probably did more damage to the snowpack than helped it.

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That storm really isn't getting suppressed, just no mechanism to bring it north..

And as alluded to by the NWS and many on here, +Epo is keeping all the cold air north..Very far north lol 

 

sfct_anom.conus (1).png

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