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Upstate/Eastern New York


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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Looking at the 6z gfs, we miss about 5 storms to the SE, I guess that's better than seeing cutter after cutter lol

Some weak northern stream disturbances and intermittent LES save give us at least something over the next 2 weeks, verbatim..Gfs is almost to active to get any sustained lake effect going..

Cutters straight to supression, no in between. :facepalm:

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23 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Next two weeks of weather looks awful. 

I'll try to be an optimistic here.  At face value, it looks ugly, but there is definitely indications of a much more defined trough in the east going forward.  A lot of storm are just missing South of us which is way better than cutting through the lakes.  At least there is a chance for these to trend in a direction to bring us snow.  Also, that strong cutter foretasted for earlier next week has really evolved over the last 24 horus, it now develops a strong wave south of us that is almost a Miller B type hit for us.  A few more moves in the direction and a super warm torch turns into a sizeable snow storm.

We went from this at noon yesterday
1993609341_oldgfs.PNG.1ff7c198a22a6fc0285c88d47efe4a99.PNG

 

To this today at noon.  At least trending the right way.  

488749241_newGFS.PNG.28b2102966c931013160e2060c0ebe53.PNG

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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Looks like a gradient type pattern in the LR, just need to be on the northern side lol

Multiple impulses ride through the flow, some good, some not so good..If the gfs has a clue..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55 (1).png

The GFS also develops a -EPO around this timeframe, hence the strong gradient storm. The PV is also parked up near Hudson Bay. I'll take that. 

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'll try to be an optimistic here.  At face value, it looks ugly, but there is definitely indications of a much more defined trough in the east going forward.  A lot of storm are just missing South of us which is way better than cutting through the lakes.  At least there is a chance for these to trend in a direction to bring us snow.  Also, that strong cutter foretasted for earlier next week has really evolved over the last 24 horus, it now develops a strong wave south of us that is almost a Miller B type hit for us.  A few more moves in the direction and a super warm torch turns into a sizeable snow storm.

We went from this at noon yesterday
1993609341_oldgfs.PNG.1ff7c198a22a6fc0285c88d47efe4a99.PNG

 

To this today at noon.  At least trending the right way.  

488749241_newGFS.PNG.28b2102966c931013160e2060c0ebe53.PNG

Yeah, European also had a sizable shift SE with the day 7 system, be interesting to see which way this one trends in the coming days.. 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne (52).png

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Gfs with a little light-moderate snow with the northern stream as well..

While the
track of the possible Nor`easter looks to not directly impact
our region, its track to the northeast will influence how the
model guidances handle the passage of a shortwave disturbance
impacting our region. This shortwave trough axis appears to move
through the Upper Great Lakes Friday night, crossing NYS
Saturday evening into Sunday. As the shortwave passes, chances
of rain and snow showers increase. Most of the precipitation
falling through out this period should be snow, however there
are chances for some mixed/rain showers in the lower terrain.
The precipitation should switch over to all fall as snow during
the overnight hours on Saturday into Sunday and remain as snow
throughout the day on Sunday.

snku_acc.us_ne - 2020-01-28T171550.026.png

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17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It's going to show "big changes" in 2 weeks, right?

:P

 

I’m pretty sick of that song and dance but I keep coming back.  Seriously the 18z eps just cooked up a miller b with inland runners in the mix. Might be a head fake but that’s the reason I come in here.  

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