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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the driest start to the year since 2012 for NYC and surrounding stations. My last rain event with over 1.00” was back on January 25th.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Jan 1 to Feb 23
Missing Count
2020-02-23 3.93 1
2019-02-23 6.11 0
2018-02-23 7.20 0
2017-02-23 6.77 0
2016-02-23 7.52 0
2015-02-23 7.27 0
2014-02-23 8.24 0
2013-02-23 5.30 0
2012-02-23 3.63 0
2011-02-23 6.59 0
2010-02-23 5.17 0

5883F1D3-A68C-40BE-959B-32F601713CEC.thumb.png.554e98cef196907500b7d3f50ef56d5e.png

 

 

4.32" here after a record wet Dec. with 8.18".

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

1. Record heat covers parts of northern Africa. Essaouira, Morocco hit a February record high temperature of 90°.

2. Temperatures will likely soar into the middle and even upper 50s in the Middle Atlantic region today and tomorrow. Washington, DC could see the temperature approach or reach 60°.

3. The powerful polar vortex remains strong.

4. The base case remains a warmer than normal March and Spring in the region.

The CFSv2 is now well underway in evolving toward what could be a warmer March outlook for the region.

CFSv02232020z.jpg

Yes and the Polar Vortex has been giving extreme cold where they are suppose to get it, the far north. The Bering Sea ice extent has actually reached the 1981-2010 norm. The ice extent  in the Arctic is more than it has been in years. Don't know how long it will last but at least it has put a little dent in the ice melting.

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29 minutes ago, doncat said:

4.32" here after a record wet Dec. with 8.18".

The SE Ridge has kept the heaviest rains to our west since late December.

3A068D99-B27F-4E43-B242-B28EC71B402E.gif.f61720b804ca79404a2ab31dd66c7c81.gif

41543597-1249-459E-9180-D34EF5EE7FF2.thumb.png.84636ac1a11609b85cd8689c21c28c19.png

 

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56 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

23 in Muttontown and 24 in Syosset this morning both occurring around 6:30 am.  Currently 48 now and rising under sunny skies. 

21 here last night, 50 now

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Like an early spring afternoon in the desert with deep blue skies and low humidity.

Newark Liberty FAIR      57   9  14%
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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day.

Except for the bone dry air. The very low humidity still leave a hint of winter feel. Dewpoint in single digits will do that. A very nice day nonetheless. More signs of spring poping up today too. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Like an early spring afternoon in the desert with deep blue skies and low humidity.

Newark Liberty FAIR      57   9  14%

Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%.

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5 hours ago, lee59 said:

24 at my house this morning. Meanwhile Manhattan only dropped to 39.

was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay.

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Feels like a mid April day.

Has a feel of Feb 2002 and Feb 2012-days of blue skies and well above normal temps-hopefully the cloudy damp pattern is behind us.

17 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%.

That's when you tend to see all the red flag warnings-lots of dry brush, winds and very low humidity.

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53 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Not unheard of in April to have relative humidity in Central Park under 10%.

We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings  just above or below 10% are usually in March or April.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are a little early this year. Our lowest annual readings  just above or below 10% are usually in March or April.

If we actually go La Niña/-PDO this spring, summer, fall....hello SE ridge on roids and epic blowtorch. I really hope not

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

was down to 22 here and 18 the night before-at least that will keep trees dormant and bugs at bay.

I was 28 last night and there were still a ton of bugs flying around in the park today.  

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Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°.

Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was yet another unseasonably mild day in an unseasonably mild February. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 60°; Boston: 58°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 56°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 56°; and, Washington, DC: 59°.

Tomorrow will likely see similar warmth in much of the region. Overall, the second half of February remains on track to be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March. This latest round of cold will likely last several days before warmth returns.

Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through the remainder of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions.

The SOI was +5.14 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.926 from 1990.

No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 2, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity could briefly begin to increase late in the period. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the end of February.

On February 22, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.818 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.670.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is a near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 76% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.8°.

Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case.

 

Any 8-ball ideas on how March could look for us snow-wise? Any chance of a 12"+ incher?

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The last 6 days of February are averaging 42.5degs., or about 5degs. AN.

Month to date is  +5.0[39.8].           February should end near +5.1[40.4].

41* here at 6am.        43* by 9am.        50* by Noon.

The first 11 days of March are averaging (06Z,GFS} 42.5degs., or about 3degs. AN.           All models are snow less and the EURO looks like it wants to hit 70 in 10 days.

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Black ice is possible across Suffolk with dense frog and temperatures below freezing.

MacArthur/ISP  FOG       31  31 100 CALM      30.06F VSB 1/4
Stony Brook      N/A     36  36 100 S5          N/A  WCI  32
Shirley        FAIR      32  30  92 CALM      30.08S FOG
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A    N/A N/A N/A S8          N/A
Westhampton    CLOUDY    21  20  96 CALM      30.09S
East Hampton   CLOUDY    25  24  96 CALM      30.08S FOG
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

NYZ078>081-241300-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-
516 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

Patchy dense fog has developed across portions of Suffolk County
early this morning. In addition to reduced visibilities, with
temperatures near or below freezing, black ice is also possible
this morning, especially on bridges and overpasses. Use caution on
the roads early this morning and leave plenty of distance between
cars, keeping in mind that any pavement that appears damp may be
icy. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise.

 

 

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Thickest frost of the season here in SW Suffolk. Temperature at 33 degrees but the there is a thick layer of frost on cars and the roofs. Almost feels like freezing rain on the cars with the dense fog until a few minutes ago. 

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14 hours ago, tdp146 said:

I was 28 last night and there were still a ton of bugs flying around in the park today.  

crazy-the only thing I am seeing here is the ladybugs

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10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

crazy-the only thing I am seeing here is the ladybugs

There were moths out last night. Just crazy, I’ve never seen that this early. They normally don’t come back out until late March

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After the top 2 warmest Februaries on record in 2017 and 2018, we are on track for another top 10 warmest finish. There have been 7 out of 11 warmer than normal Februaries since 2010.

.............EWR....NYC....LGA

2020.....+5.5...+5.0....+4.4...so far

2019....+1.4.....+0.9...+0.5

2018....+6.8....+6.7.....+7.1

2017....+7.0....+6.3.....+7.5

2016....+2.5....+2.4.....+3.1

2015....-12.0...-11.4....-11.1

2014....-4.7.....-3.7.....-4.0

2013....-0.5.....-1.4.....-0.8

2012....+5.9....+5.6....+6.1

2011....+1.8.....+0.7.....+1.2

2010....-1.4......-2.2......-1.5

 

 

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