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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It's just eye candy right now...nothing more.  But, the take away is that both major models have now shown a bomb in that 2/2-2/3 time frame.  Doesn't mean much but that a system could be looming in and around that time frame.  I certainly wouldn't be optimistic about though...not the way things cave in this season so far.

Yea, I wouldn't expect a huge hit for us...I think from around president's day into early March will be more favorable for something closer to the magnitude of the early December event.

It could be decent, though...probably some precip type issues.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I wouldn't expect a huge hit for us...I think from around president's day into early March will be more favorable for something closer to the magnitude of the early December event.

It could be decent, though...probably some precip type issues.

You keep pushing it back

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You keep pushing it back

I was waiting for you to say that.

Take a look at the date ranges in my outlook.

12-5 to 12-19, which missed by two days, and 2-17 to 3-2.

Check your facts.

Just because I don't call for April in February doesn't mean I think it's Feb 1969.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I wouldn't expect a huge hit for us...I think from around president's day into early March will be more favorable for something closer to the magnitude of the early December event.

It could be decent, though...probably some precip type issues.

damm. early March? at that point I'm ready for summer.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was waiting for you to say that.

Take a look at the date ranges in my outlook.

12-5 to 12-19, which missed by two days, and 2-20 to 3-5.

Check your facts.

Just because I don't call for April in February doesn't mean I think it's Feb 1969.

Just kidding,  why would you be waiting for me? I am not panicking Jan 24th. Feb to mid March is our snowy times as has been. 

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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You keep pushing it back

I was going to say the same thing, however, Ray is correct if you go back to his blog. I personally am just frustrated as others, and Mets and ones that know their stuff, say wait till next week, then you have to wait another few weeks, then........ I get it, however, a week out or so not vested, I like the pursuit (like trying to get that girl to go out or get in her....) show me 5 more days of models agreeing on something, then I'm in.......who am I kidding, I will keep following.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't know, you tell me...you like to challenge people. Lol

Best of luck 

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19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I wouldn't expect a huge hit for us...I think from around president's day into early March will be more favorable for something closer to the magnitude of the early December event.

It could be decent, though...probably some precip type issues.

Dam, I hope something pops before then...that's pretty much a full Month from now lol.   We need to start seeing some snow in the next week to hope to make it to normal this season..at least for a lot of us.  Sitting at 17.2" so far this season..long way to go for normal snow here.  

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Dam, I hope something pops before then...that's pretty much a full Month from now lol.   We need to start seeing some snow in the next week to hope to make it to normal this season..at least for a lot of us.  Sitting at 17.2" so far this season..long way to go for normal snow here.  

I just mean that is my favored time slot for a KU..doesn't mean palm trees, beforehand.

Anyway, sorry to derail....hopefully it flips soon

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not a bad trait, btw...just saying...

People who are low on snow in here are crazy. I mean it's like they have not lived through a low snow Dec Jan before.  Amazing 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can see how it fails, too...not making the same mistake I did last year, when I was onnoxiously overconfident. I get it...but I think there is still plenty of time.

 

I agree there is definitely plenty of time...lots of winter to go.  But if we Punt a Full 4 weeks with nothing but a few sloppy inches, normal snow is gonna be tough to get to.  Unless of course we score a Bomb at some point, and then it's a different story.  But that seems a long shot currently.?

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I agree there is definitely plenty of time...lots of winter to go.  But if we Punt a Full 4 weeks with nothing but a few sloppy inches, normal snow is gonna be tough to get to.  Unless of course we score a Bomb at some point, and then it's a different story.  But that seems a long shot currently.?

Its a long shot anytime soon, agree.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I agree there is definitely plenty of time...lots of winter to go.  But if we Punt a Full 4 weeks with nothing but a few sloppy inches, normal snow is gonna be tough to get to.  Unless of course we score a Bomb at some point, and then it's a different story.  But that seems a long shot currently.?

We don't need a Kocin cookbook pattern for a good storm in New England....it makes it more likely for a big one, but we get the majority of our warning criteria events as something well-timed in a flawed pattern.

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I’m holding onto 1959-60.  Shit winter until 3/3/60.  Suddenly one of the all timers of the 20th century snows up.

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I was waiting for you to say that.

Take a look at the date ranges in my outlook.

12-5 to 12-19, which missed by two days, and 2-17 to 3-2.

Check your facts.

Just because I don't call for April in February doesn't mean I think it's Feb 1969.

"Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA."

There is probably some confusion because in several discussions you talked about favorable conditions from late (or the end of January ) on, but your outlook clearly states what you noted above.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We don't need a Kocin cookbook pattern for a good storm in New England....it makes it more likely for a big one, but we get the majority of our warning criteria events as something well-timed in a flawed pattern.

 O I get it..thanks for clarifying though.  Certainly don’t need a perfect pattern here for a good storm.  Was just replying to Rays post about Presidents’ Day..which is a month away.  Hoping we see some action with at least a couple winter events before we lose another full month, was more my point.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty huggy solution if you ask me....but it's 200 hour out, so I'm not really parsing this that closely right now

 

 

Jan24_12zEPS210.png

Didn't we just see a similar scenario days ago for our upcoming storm, only to morph into a rainer this weekend for most.  Not biting until other guidance  confirms.  Euro hasn't inspired confidence in these longer range scenarios thus far.

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19 minutes ago, Drop the Trough said:

"Not a met, but I still like latter January and especially February. I think it becomes progressively lesa hostile for blocking from mid month into March. In the Pac side, I'm more confident of improvements in the EPO region, than I am with respect to the PNA."

There is probably some confusion because in several discussions you talked about favorable conditions from late (or the end of January ) on, but your outlook clearly states what you noted above.

Yea, I get it. I do expect gradual improvement throughout February, so I see why people were confused by that. I agree with you on a better EPO than PNA.

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Lot has to go right for that... 

This weekend's spent a considerable amount of time under long island in the various guidance clusters, too  ;)  ... it would be funny if it all busted that way anyway, but excluding the extreme unlikeliness. 

There are doses of skepticism in here, but we have been correcting toward the ST L transit all season since the Dec 2 thing... Countless extended range betrayals to those that post and pretend they're aren't hopeful. Ha.  awesomely transparent.  

Okay, it's not physically "im"possible for that Euro to happen.  But that near perfection?  So, taking a bite of of rudimentary deterministic philosophical sammich...  any other solution other than perfect is by mathematical default, less perfect.   But, that's true on the sliding scale too... up and down.  Anything at the 80th percentile, by default means that the ballast of potential solutions will fall less impressive.   

I mean that's just it... that's why these D9er mean shit.  If the cinema of the models is enough to keep folks elated and charged... okay.  just sayn'.  But your reality is thus fake

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 Half of the New England forum would, at this point, do well to take a few days off from Weather and go enjoy something else.

I’m going to go ski in the morning before the rain comes and enjoy the second Saturday this month that will have featured “spring skiing”

B)

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11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Half of the New England forum would, at this point, do well to take a few days off from Weather and go enjoy something else.

I’m going to go ski in the morning before the rain comes and enjoy the second Saturday this month that will have featured “spring skiing”

B)

Was up in N. Maine last weekend sledding..was frigid but a great time.  And it was good to get away from “everything!”  So I hear what you’re saying.  

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13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Half of the New England forum would, at this point, do well to take a few days off from Weather and go enjoy something else.

I’m going to go ski in the morning before the rain comes and enjoy the second Saturday this month that will have featured “spring skiing”

B)

Half?  Maybe the entire forum?  Man, it looks pretty bleak overall for winter weather for the foreseeable future. 

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