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Feb To Forget? - 2020 Discussion

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

H5 sucks, worse.

Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. 
 

Something is changing to make these models punt East 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. 
 

Something is changing to make these models punt East 

Its the junk ahead of the storm that is ruining the phase .

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja.

yeah that's becoming a bit more interesting. I would watch out sometime next week (and a period where models don't show anything)...if that ejects there is opportunity to coincide with some northern stream energy. 

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1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. 
 

Something is changing to make these models punt East 

I wouldn’t trust gfs to handle this properly but euro isn’t exactly bulletproof. Give it until 0z Thur.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja.

Yeah... that’s the biggest issue I think. Euro had that from the start... looks like it may be correct.. not just the model bias at play. 
 

Of course it’s got this one right 

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

So anything else in the pipeline? Mid week?

A torch. Lock that in. Only thing that can go right. :lol: 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Who cares about FV3? So stupid that people evaluate it and think it’s right

What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run.

 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja.

Is this right? We have seen the models do it all the time. 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run.

 

You don’t look at any op run this far out and assume they’re right. If this winter hasn’t taught you that then you’re beyond help.You use pattern setup , the past ,ensembles and your own experience. Not op runs 5 days out 

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Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run.

 

He struggling. He went from a rains to Canada call to it’s coming all the way to the HRV...within a few days. KWM tossed.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You don’t look at any op run this far out and assume they’re right. If this winter hasn’t taught you that then you’re beyond help.You use pattern setup , the past ,ensembles and your own experience. Not op runs 5 days out 

Okay... what ensemble set gives you snow? My experience tells me that this is headed in the wrong direction.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think so....that is getting pretty close range. 

Better bet is to keep digging the n stream and hope that lead turd scrams.

I agree

It's a shame the crap is  ruining this storm from phasing. 

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