weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That guy needs to be 5PPD...maybe invent a 3PPD. 0PPD is preferred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Sorry guys I was wrong... calm down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: H5 sucks, worse. Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. Something is changing to make these models punt East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: Sorry guys I was wrong... calm down Member name change: NYCforumNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Even whiffs NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. Something is changing to make these models punt East Its the junk ahead of the storm that is ruining the phase . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 So anything else in the pipeline? Mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Its the junk ahead of the storm that is ruining the phase . Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja. yeah that's becoming a bit more interesting. I would watch out sometime next week (and a period where models don't show anything)...if that ejects there is opportunity to coincide with some northern stream energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Who cares about FV3? So stupid that people evaluate it and think it’s right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Look at the changes from 00z to now... absolutely comical. I know we are still a few days out... but woof. Something is changing to make these models punt East I wouldn’t trust gfs to handle this properly but euro isn’t exactly bulletproof. Give it until 0z Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja. Yeah... that’s the biggest issue I think. Euro had that from the start... looks like it may be correct.. not just the model bias at play. Of course it’s got this one right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: So anything else in the pipeline? Mid week? A torch. Lock that in. Only thing that can go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Who cares about FV3? So stupid that people evaluate it and think it’s right What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 That is fine with me. 45-55 would be great for next week as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Gfs is definitely going to be west! GFS is definitely going to miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja. Is this right? We have seen the models do it all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run. You don’t look at any op run this far out and assume they’re right. If this winter hasn’t taught you that then you’re beyond help.You use pattern setup , the past ,ensembles and your own experience. Not op runs 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Is this right? We have seen the models do it all the time. I think so....that is getting pretty close range. Better bet is to keep digging the n stream and hope that lead turd scrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: What is your model of choice right now? I believe the only model that gives you anything at all is the ukie... and that was headed East after a zonked 00z run. He struggling. He went from a rains to Canada call to it’s coming all the way to the HRV...within a few days. KWM tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You don’t look at any op run this far out and assume they’re right. If this winter hasn’t taught you that then you’re beyond help.You use pattern setup , the past ,ensembles and your own experience. Not op runs 5 days out Okay... what ensemble set gives you snow? My experience tells me that this is headed in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think so....that is getting pretty close range. Better bet is to keep digging the n stream and hope that lead turd scrams. I agree It's a shame the crap is ruining this storm from phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 gfs is okay at this range for watching its trends, esp. relative to the ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Dr. Dews said: gfs is okay at this range for watching its trends, esp. relative to the ensemble Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 This is not what you want to see inside D5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He struggling. He went from a rains to Canada call to it’s coming all the way to the HRV...within a few days. KWM tossed. How can you look at this setup and think you’re not going to see a nice snowfall there? Like are you being serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drop the Trough Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Sorry guys I was wrong... calm down wow..that like never happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Just need another few hundred mile burp Well, we certainly had one last week. Unfortunately the atmospheric flatulence with this one could swing it the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How can you look at this setup and think you’re not going to see a nice snowfall there? Like are you being serious? What setup...it’s real dicey. se zones favored. Maybe some snow to the NY border if all the sw’s can cooperate but in a progressive flow, doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What setup...it’s real dicey. se zones favored. Maybe some snow to the NY border if all the sw’s can cooperate but in a progressive flow, doubt it. Yes and story of the winter the further SW your latitude is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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