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HoarfrostHubb

January 25-26 Threat

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Thinking the warming/north trend is nearing an end ....Trend towards south/colder likely to begin shortly...How far? Not sure but some kind of middle ground of yesterday’s 0z/6z runs vs today’s 0z/6z runs seems like a good baseline, hedging in favor of colder/south vs warmer/north

Why? Naked under the robe today?

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

See Lighthouse if you want to observe brilliant acting and a chillingly disturbing movie...

Funny thing is it’s been generally cold.  That epo dump did the trick but now it goes.

Cool, i'll check it out. Thought it was old...

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why? Naked under the robe today?

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What had to happen? Stronger confluence as we get closer? Stranger things have happened 

I guess if you really wanted to do that to yourself - 

There is another strong ULL out in the Pacific about halfway between HI and AK that ejects some energy into the CONUS after our main wave. We've had storms ruined at the last minute by a kicker shunting them east, it's always possible this follow-up wave comes in at a strength/orientation/timing that is more conductive to acting as a kicker.

I wouldn't bet anything on it though.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

image.png.b2aabdec0be145525d3fc6dba60ab868.png

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9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Big picture. Trend in MJO and teleconnections all points towards a colder solution with better surface high in NB/QC and more confluence...Canada overall is warm, but thinking conditions are suitable to generate sufficient regional cold, given climo, snowpack, and the above...

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't models have a difficult time with handling confluence too? I remember some previous storms where confluence was a factor we saw last minute shifts south...and sometimes the south track resulted in suppression...thankfully this is a situation where we wouldn't have to worry about that so confluence may be our friend this time 

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I’m unsure. But to me what’s important is Canada in general is torched but the only region showing negative Temp anomalies at 850 and surface is QC. Current guidance has that cold easily eroding but I don’t think that gets scoured so quickly/easily and instead we see a more pronounced CAD drain...

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is actually hinted at pretty well with the latest NAM

I don’t see that on 12z nam?

i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC throughout all of SNE 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see that on 12z nam?

i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC

12z NAM has like +6 850 temps over SNE. Lol. Its by far the warmest aloft. 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t see that on 12z nam?

i see temps steady or rising at 0z Sunday as low drifts N near NYC throughout all of SNE 

northern New England 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would lean weaker more progressive and some elevation snows esp S VT and Monads over 1500’ that do well on E flow. 

Storm is weak on almost all guidance and airmass is crap. 

If it indeed trends weaker then the goal posts will be a narrow range of latitudes that get the best lift and totals.  Your call for Monads out to Hunter would probably be on.

I was really hoping to see the Whites buried b/c I have a few weekends planned up there in early Feb but MWV totals look meh'.

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

12z is still worse—warmer/further north, GFS likewise...

Terrible for down this way...and into central New England. At least up north gets smoked. 

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4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Solid warning here on this 12z GFS run.

How does the ME coast look? Assuming we're tenuous at best in this setup.

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