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Mid to Long Range Threats

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1 minute ago, PB-99 said:

 

That`s the way dispose of old train cars in 2020 ?

F$#%^&* Shameful. 

Artificial reefs? That's the only thing I could think they would do that for

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It makes absolutely no sense. I’m not throwing in the towel for a possible surprise snow event (1-3 type) but a cold March? Everything screams 70s mid month on 

70's mid month on? That would be about 25 degrees above normal. Maybe for a day or two but mid month on, I hope not. That would approach the March 2012 in Chicago, where they had 8 out of 9 days 80° or above. That was freaky and F'd up their trees big time. I could do without it.

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35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

he shows this for phase 5:

Screen_Shot_2020_02_25_at_6_18_45_AM.png

Those are three month average anomalies. Broad-brushing or imposing such anomalies on a single month can lead one to incorrect conclusions. The risks of error are particularly high in a month like March when the wave lengths are changing (shortening).

Here's how things worked out for the first and second half of March for NYC (1981-2019):

March 1-15, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 40.2°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 43.0° or 2.8° warmer than the mean for the whole period

March 16-31, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 45.1°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 46.3° or 1.2° warmer than the mean for the whole period

I don't think it's any surprise that the EPS weeklies (and I expect the evolution to continue when the newest data becomes available later today) and CFSv2 have now moved aggressively toward a warm March outcome.

One need only look back to late January/early February to see the perils of ignoring or discounting critical details. Discounting what appeared likely to be an exceptionally strong AO+ regime for February led to some forecasts calling for severe and sustained cold to develop.

At last word, the severe cold that was touted over social media by some never materialized. Instead, cities such as Philadelphia, New York, and Boston are about to record among their 10 warmest February cases on record. 

The warm February was not unexpected. It was not unforeseeable. In tennis, it would be the equivalent of an unforced error.

A similar situation now exists concerning March, though the changing wave lengths make the forecast more complex. Nevertheless, it's a higher confidence than usual one.

IMO, pointing out such matters is useful for learning purposes. The general lesson is that one needs evidence that is reliable for drawing sound conclusions. While such an approach won't eliminate forecasting error, it can reduce the risk of error.

 

 

 

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17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Those are three month average anomalies. Broad-brushing or imposing such anomalies on a single month can lead one to incorrect conclusions. The risks of error are particularly high in a month like March when the wave lengths are changing (shortening).

Here's how things worked out for the first and second half of March for NYC (1981-2019):

March 1-15, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 40.2°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 43.0° or 2.8° warmer than the mean for the whole period

March 16-31, 1981-2019: Mean temperature: 45.1°; MJO Phase 5 (amplitude 1.000 or above): 46.3° or 1.2° warmer than the mean for the whole period

I don't think it's any surprise that the EPS weeklies (and I expect the evolution to continue when the newest data becomes available later today) and CFSv2 have now moved aggressively toward a warm March outcome.

One need only look back to late January/early February to see the perils of ignoring or discounting critical details. Discounting what appeared likely to be an exceptionally strong AO+ regime for February led to some forecasts for severe cold to develop.

At last word, the severe cold that was touted over social media by some never materialized. Instead, cities such as Philadelphia, New York, and Boston are about to record among their 10 warmest February cases on record. 

The warm February was not unexpected. It was not unforeseeable. A similar situation now exists concerning March, though the changing wave lengths make the forecast more complex. Nevertheless, it's a higher confidence than usual one.

 

 

 

I would tend to agree Don.  A warm month is likely in my opinion, the question will be whether it's like Jan and Feb (+5 to 6) or muted somewhat by bouts of cold say  +2 to 3

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

He's banking on Phase 5 MJO which is colder in March and some EPO dips.  I could see some cold spells like the one coming up, but it's not really all that cold in the general scheme of things...

People have had it with his constant busts and wishcasts. His twitter feed is nothing but people attacking him

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17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

People have had it with his constant busts and wishcasts. His twitter feed is nothing but people attacking him

I'm surprised he's even posting weather stuff there after this winter....

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50 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

People have had it with his constant busts and wishcasts. His twitter feed is nothing but people attacking him

It is well-deserved he has preyed upon a certain population for the decade and largely got correct because of the wrong association that snow = below average temperatures. Even though it has been snowy this decade, winter temperatures have largely been above normal minus just a few winter months between 2013 and 2015. He is always all cold, all the time why? Because it sold and made him a lot of money. Complete fraud that is in it for the money, fame, and politics, yet does not analyze real data. He lost my confidence when people caught him presenting half truths a few years ago, purposely only providing select data.

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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

They use them to make artificial reefs

Yup.But you can't keep any of the fish anyway, so its kinda bogus. Also, as NMFS itself once wrote to me, artificial reefs don't help fish populations, they just concentrate them. They said it, i didn't....

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3 hours ago, PB-99 said:

 

That`s the way dispose of old train cars in 2020 ?

F$#%^&* Shameful. 

These in particular were retired by 2003, they no longer do this, however it’s actually good for marine life, they were placed off the coast from NJ to GA in areas mostly devoid of any natural reefs.

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26 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is well-deserved he has preyed upon a certain population for the decade and largely got correct because of the wrong association that snow = below average temperatures. Even though it has been snowy this decade, winter temperatures have largely been above normal minus just a few winter months between 2013 and 2015. He is always all cold, all the time why? Because it sold and made him a lot of money. Complete fraud that is in it for the money, fame, and politics, yet does not analyze real data. He lost my confidence when people caught him presenting half truths a few years ago, purposely only providing select data.

I'd say the snow hid the bust on the temps-it the winter ends up +3 and we have 50 inches of snow, all is forgiven.   If we're +3 and no snow, then different story.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd say the snow hid the bust on the temps-it the winter ends up +3 and we have 50 inches of snow, all is forgiven.   If we're +3 and no snow, then different story.

It is exactly this. I guarantee if we had a banner March with 50 inches, people would look back and say what an epic winter 2019-2020 was even though it was garbage.

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On 2/27/2020 at 9:37 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

70's mid month on? That would be about 25 degrees above normal. Maybe for a day or two but mid month on, I hope not. That would approach the March 2012 in Chicago, where they had 8 out of 9 days 80° or above. That was freaky and F'd up their trees big time. I could do without it.

March 1990 was ours, mid to upper 80s in March and then a one inch snowfall in April!

 

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16 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it was even worse in 2001-02.....I never read anything JB said after that catastrophe.

 

Good move-look at all the time you've saved lol.

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Elaborate, on board with what? We are going to need an intense low in just the right position to draw in cold air for any chance at the coast

He’s apparently hyping a major east coast snowstorm as per usual for that fraud

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1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Elaborate, on board with what? We are going to need an intense low in just the right position to draw in cold air for any chance at the coast

On board for a massive rainstorm perhaps?

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Elaborate, on board with what? We are going to need an intense low in just the right position to draw in cold air for any chance at the coast

For what? There will be enough cold air if we get a storm next week.

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42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

For what? There will be enough cold air if we get a storm next week.

We’ll see, no one wants a big storm more then me, but it’s going to be thread the needle for the coast no matter how you look at it. The predominate low tracks have been so incredibly constant ever suppressed or to our north. Why would that change?

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