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stormtracker

January 18th Event

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22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There ya go. And I do think there’s a chance that happens. Put it in the Tn valley and you have a real shot of it jumping and basically dry slotting and never get above freezing

Yeah you said that earlier during morning runs. I hope it happens. I personally like these setups, I stay cold longer, if I ever flip at all. Short of a dry slot, I have done well in these setups in the past

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HP is slightly stronger at 90 on 18z GFS... can def see more of a push south compared to 12z at 84

ETA:  Def can see it at 96 -- snowing in STL on 18z GFS where at 12z GFS it was sleet/freezing rain

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Another tick in the right direction with confluence to the N....Storm looks a bit flatter through 96 as well

1044 HP in prime position at 18z 102... was 1042 at 12z 96

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Thumpity thump by 21z...temps look close for snow but definitely frozen

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

Moisture slug does not look as impressive to me. But, really think this is  snowy for a while based on GFS!

 

Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. 

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still room for improvement but you can see that the damming is more entrenched.  It’s following the weenie playbook. 

Yep...Takeaway is deeper CAD. Onto the Gefs 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Weenie rulebook: when NC is getting CAD snow on a west track we're getting hit solid

gfs_ref_frzn_us_18.png

And when the CAD wedge goes through Atlanta! Solid! 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. 

Exactly. It was what... 5 days ago when we had a warm front that juiced up within 72 hours? The easiest way for this event to blow up in a bad way is the cold high run away like a sissy. That's trending the good way still. I'm feelin pretty good for d5

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Stupid Question:  when there is mixed precip do you look at all three frozen precip maps—-snow, sleet, and freezing rain to figure out totals or how is it calculated?

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Euro has an over amped bias but gfs has been too wet often. Either way, I like the intense arctic high. Lots of wiggle room to still get frozen.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. It was what... 5 days ago when we had a warm front that juiced up within 72 hours? The easiest way for this event to blow up in a bad way is the cold high run away like a sissy. That's trending the good way still. I'm feelin pretty good for d5

This was huge improvement to me. Snow so far south, better cold, it is a great trend! And TREND is the key word.. in the RIGHT direction. I liked this run a lot!

 

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