yoda Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 HP is slightly stronger at 90 on 18z GFS... can def see more of a push south compared to 12z at 84 ETA: Def can see it at 96 -- snowing in STL on 18z GFS where at 12z GFS it was sleet/freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Stronger high 1046 on 18z gfs good start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Another tick in the right direction with confluence to the N....Storm looks a bit flatter through 96 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Weenie rulebook: when NC is getting CAD snow on a west track we're getting hit solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: Another tick in the right direction with confluence to the N....Storm looks a bit flatter through 96 as well 1044 HP in prime position at 18z 102... was 1042 at 12z 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 I like seeing the widespread temps in the 20s (to near 30) Friday evening across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Angle of attack seems a bit better on the 18z. Slightly better damming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Moisture slug does not look as impressive to me. But, really think this is snowy for a while based on GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Thumpity thump by 21z...temps look close for snow but definitely frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 Still room for improvement but you can see that the damming is more entrenched. It’s following the weenie playbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 12z Sat WB is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2020 Author Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Moisture slug does not look as impressive to me. But, really think this is snowy for a while based on GFS! Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Very nice GFS run coming in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weenie rulebook: when NC is getting CAD snow on a west track we're getting hit solid And when the CAD wedge goes through Atlanta! Solid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 WB 18z Sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Thump is legit. Pretty close to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 My initial chase plan is Gettysburg. Subject to change based on future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. Exactly. It was what... 5 days ago when we had a warm front that juiced up within 72 hours? The easiest way for this event to blow up in a bad way is the cold high run away like a sissy. That's trending the good way still. I'm feelin pretty good for d5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 This is like 95% frozen. Lol. Euro has been tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Stupid Question: when there is mixed precip do you look at all three frozen precip maps—-snow, sleet, and freezing rain to figure out totals or how is it calculated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: This is like 95% frozen. Lol. Euro has been tossed. Yeah - this is what I was thinking in my post over at banter - was wondering if euro might be on an island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Euro has an over amped bias but gfs has been too wet often. Either way, I like the intense arctic high. Lots of wiggle room to still get frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Exactly. It was what... 5 days ago when we had a warm front that juiced up within 72 hours? The easiest way for this event to blow up in a bad way is the cold high run away like a sissy. That's trending the good way still. I'm feelin pretty good for d5 This was huge improvement to me. Snow so far south, better cold, it is a great trend! And TREND is the key word.. in the RIGHT direction. I liked this run a lot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 We need the primary to track about 200 miles east and it's 6-12". Weenie me all you want... my statement is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 NE MD gets absolutely pummeled this run. 6-8'' with 10:1 ratios, but it's likely to be higher initially because of the super cold airmass to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Some little snow blip on Monday in Central VA adding to the snow there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, JakkelWx said: NE MD gets absolutely pummeled this run. 6-8'' with 10:1 ratios, but it's likely to be higher initially because of the super cold airmass to the north. Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Have to like the 1040 HP that's been consistently modeled. Won't be easy to scour out even without classic blocking. Heck a 1030 HP can get it done in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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