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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like a rainy version of NEMO 2013.

good track just need to speed up that cold air injection that's in the great lakes

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This storm is going to cut, it's never been a good setup and this is definitely a snow to rain event, the only question or thing that keeps a me a little intrigued is the strength of the initial CAD and if precip moves in faster than modeled. So far this winter nothing has really worked out so would lean toward an inch or less event changing to rain more than an initial thump but I can see where an initial thump could happen in this setup.   

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Forget initial thump, this storm keeps having less and less overall QPF each run, seems like light snow to light rain

 

Looking more and more like a pure cutter which might actually be good for this area in terms of not getting a drenching rain

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3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Forget initial thump, this storm keeps having less and less overall QPF each run, seems like light snow to light rain

 

Looking more and more like a pure cutter which might actually be good for this area in terms of not getting a drenching rain

If it ain't gonna snow I'd rather have the light rain than the heavy stuff. I'm sick of the mud. We'll have mud til June

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z GFS looks colder and weaker. A nice little hit of 2 to 3 inches of snow, and then not much rain.

1-3 inches is a solid call unless the precip races into the area.

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47 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro has never liked this storm for our area, it's why I wasn't too excited even when the GFS looked good a few days ago.  

I would trust the gfs over the Euro since the Euro has been awful.

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Good Wednesday morning everyone,  Yes... its a relatively snowless winter so far for NYC and maybe this is the way it goes the rest of the way but I think we need to work the science of ensembles for predictability and self checks against our own personal snow forecast processes.  I've added again here, and I hope to add to the original post... the NWS ensemble chance of 3+" of snow and the EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow.  The EPS is still pretty close to what its been for several days, but the NWS ensemble has decreased considerably s of I84. It doesn't look too good for NYC though I think a decent short burst of snow-sleet should occur during the early afternoon start---surface temperatures being a little on the warm side for much of a street problem.  Looks a little dicier nw corner NJ into parts of se NYS with the bulk of this event there snow to ice before dribbling out to drizzle - showers later at night.   I'm just not seeing much of a south wind in the interior, presuming it does snow-sleet 1+ inches.  Snow growth at this distant forecast time for Saturday actually models okay for an hour to two Saturday afternoon. 733A/15

Screen Shot 2020-01-15 at 6.08.22 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-15 at 6.14.26 AM.png

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Looks like a dusting to an inch for the city and coast before the changeover unless the precip comes racing in.

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11 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Looks like a dusting to an inch for the city and coast before the changeover unless the precip comes racing in.

I don’t think we only get a dusting here only. This is a 2-4 inch snow to rain event in my opinion. No model has a dusting only

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I don’t think we only get a dusting here only. This is a 2-4 inch snow to rain event in my opinion. No model has a dusting only

not in the city by the time precip arrives temps will be close to or above freezing - the further west of the Hudson River you go the better the chance of 2 - 4,,,,,,,,,IMO

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1 hour ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

I don’t think we only get a dusting here only. This is a 2-4 inch snow to rain event in my opinion. No model has a dusting only

Are you in Armonk or NYC metro? I have seen you post both...

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13 minutes ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

When is the nam in range for this ?? Tonite oz or tomm 12z?

here is the NAM but still not in its more accurate range of 60 Hours

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

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13 minutes ago, NYCSNOWMAN2020 said:

When is the nam in range for this ?? Tonite oz or tomm 12z?

Today's 12z NAM at hour 84 has 1 to 2 inches for NYC, and 4 inches just a shade away from NYC. Most of northern NJ is 4 inches. NYC is right near the edge of the more significant snow on this run. Of course this is long range NAM, so there's a ways to go before it gets into its more reliable range.

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

here is the NAM but still not in its more accurate range of 60 Hours

namconus_asnow_neus_29.png

Sleety look just south of the metro on the nam 

BB2D7C64-9BBF-4D74-A625-9845C1CB1C44.png

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Today's 12z NAM at hour 84 has 1 to 2 inches for NYC, and 4 inches just a shade away from NYC. Most of northern NJ is 4 inches. NYC is right near the edge of the more significant snow on this run. Of course this is long range NAM, so there's a ways to go before it gets into its more reliable range.

all models are obviously showing the above average water temps and the position of the HP is shifting east with a more onshore flow - inland away from the coast amounts increase significantly

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Hate to say it but this looks like more sleet than snow in places that stay cold at the surface. I expect the coast to quickly changeover after 1-3 hours of snow to start.

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4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Hate to say it but this looks like more sleet than snow in places that stay cold at the surface. I expect the coast to quickly changeover after 1-3 hours of snow to start.

This is a quick snow/sleet to start then over to all rain rather quickly. IMO most areas in the metro see less than an inch even N & W

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A big difference with this system is that we will be below freezing for about 36 hours before the onset of precipitation. And not just slightly below but well down into the teens anywhere north and west of New York City. 850s are cold and 2 meter wind speeds are variable and very light at 1 p.m. Saturday before the shift to the south wind and gradually increases. this should allow snow to hold on a little longer again mainly north and west of the city and probably not too far north and west. could be a nice little surprise 2 to 4in north of I-95 my big concern is how much moisture will be available with the initial thump

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1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said:

Are you in Armonk or NYC metro? I have seen you post both...

I live in armonk but I work in the city, but my parents live in the Bronx. It’s complicated. I think still this is 2-4 in the city

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Hate to say it but this looks like more sleet than snow in places that stay cold at the surface. I expect the coast to quickly changeover after 1-3 hours of snow to start.

agreed -even though temps start out well below freezing Saturday morning - they will rise quickly to freezing then above in the city and immediate NYC metro by the time the precip starts - seen this play out like this many times before - and then you have to worry about virga at the start - surprised if NYC immediate metro gets more then a coating to an inch out of this - if that. Poor storm track well to the north and a + NAO to blame.

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2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

not in the city by the time precip arrives temps will be close to or above freezing - the further west of the Hudson River you go the better the chance of 2 - 4,,,,,,,,,IMO

The models don’t really account for the evaporative cooling since it will be very dry when the snow comes in, and than once the heavier batch comes in we should cool down some more from dynamic cooling. Half of the precipitation here falls as snow in my opinion. Trenton and south is snow sleet mix turning into rain. 2-4 is a good bet for the city proper

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

-pna is the reason for the poor storm track 

and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south

nao.sprd2.gif

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

and + NAO - no blocking allowing the cold air to escape and no chance for a redevelopment of the storm to the south

Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To  track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us. 

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, if we had a -nao it might lock the high in. But that doesn’t change the fact the low is going To  track into the Great Lakes. Too much digging off the west coast to force this underneath us. 

we  have had a + NAO since December 1st - getting kind of long in the tooth - odds favor a change to negative soon...…

nao.sprd2.gif

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