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wdrag

Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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Seems like the initial burst then long lull could be an issue too. Time to warm everything up on S winds in the showery precip, then the meat of it is rain or mix. Again just seems like so much could go wrong that it’s foolish to predict over 3” in NYC. 
It looks like the only model showing this lull at 0z is the HR which I don't put much stock in. Both NAM's fill in faster than previous runs. Hopefully it's real and should help since we need all we can get early.

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38 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

It looks like the only model showing this lull at 0z is the HR which I don't put much stock in. Both NAM's fill in faster than previous runs. Hopefully it's real and should help since we need all we can get early.

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The NAM shows this risk-3k and 12k. There's a good initial burst of snow at 1-3pm, but it may lead to a mini dry slot after that for a couple hours since (another feature of SWFEs often around here), the main WAA shoots NW of us and we're left waiting for the meat of the precip around dusk, when it may be marginal for snow near the city and coast due to it being dry and there's that couple of hours for southerly flow to warm everything up. It may happen or may not but it's a possibility. If it's really a solid wall of snow that comes into NYC, it'll hold off the warming at the surface and there won't be the couple hour period with showery stuff. 

 

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32 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

North/South shore gradient seems to be a theme on models today. Definitely feasible-southerly winds are a kiss of death a lot sooner on Captree than Sunken Meadow. It eventually cooks both but the extra 90 mins or so could mean an additional 1-2" if it's during heavy precip. 

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NWS (Philly and NYC offices) reduced snowfall a bit for areas along and south of 78 (and 495 east of Manhattan), including for NYC, based mostly on less QPF while temps are cold enough, according to the AFDs.  None of the advisory counties changed and the advisories still say 2-4" for NE NJ/NYC/LI, but the maps have less within that 2-4" range.  A little surprised as I didn't think the 0Z models had backed off on snowfall amounts, but what do I know, lol.  

 

StormTotalSnow.png

 

StormTotalSnow.png 

 

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...17* here..barometer v. strong @ 30.70"..pretty close to KFOK's 30.60"..their dew point

is @ 4*..

expecting the usual out here..little snow then the c/o..agrees with the NWS NOT putting the east

end in a WWA.

 

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Good Saturday morning everyone (Jan 18).  This is an mPING day.  Should produce some accumulation for our entire forum area. 

I've added some  ensemble products as self checks against big amounts... the questions I have...ultimate water equivalent QPF and does it sleet in a marginally thermal column late today, or does upward motion, compensate to produce 1/2S at 5-6PM.  I've opted for the snow-sleet=trim amounts scenario for my own area of interest (I84 corridor of ne PA/nw NJ). The EC Kuchera is rather robust in the Poconos/nw NJ and as is the Experimental HRRR. I am definitely concerned about sleet...already sleeting (mPING) where one might have thought it be snowing in w MD. It will be hazardous at times this afternoon-evening on all surfaces up here nw NJ and se NYS. Ground too cold and air temps I do not think can rise as fast as modeled away from LI.  So the first 3 graphics are NWS ensemble chances of 1+, 2+ and 4+ inches.  Then the EPS prob courtesy Weather.US, for 3+ inches which continues uncertainty nw NJ but favors 3+ with its ~80% probs.  Finally the 06z HRRRX variable density product and these amounts look a little too high to me.... I could see this would be possible if ALL snow.  So my confidence in an all snow situation til 02z is below average for nw NJ and ne PA.  Hope I'm wrong.   658A/18

 

at 502P/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis to compare against NWS and EPS probabilities for various thresholds 2,3,4"    This illustrates value of considering ensembles as limiters on extremes.  One thing we know' HRRRX was terrible in northern PA where the sleet I think impacted this variable density product. Rest of the HRRX product looked decent.  Later, Walt

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.13.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.25.26 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-18_at_5_17.01_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.32.21 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-18_at_4_53.43_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-19 at 4.43.14 PM.png

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Good Saturday morning everyone (Jan 18).  This is an mPING day.  Should produce some accumulation for our entire forum area. 

I've added some  ensemble products as self checks against big amounts... the questions I have...ultimate water equivalent QPF and does it sleet in a marginally thermal column late today, or does upward motion, compensate to produce 1/2S at 5-6PM.  I've opted for the snow-sleet=trim amounts scenario for my own area of interest (I84 corridor of ne PA/nw NJ). The EC Kuchera is rather robust in the Poconos/nw NJ and as is the Experimental HRRR. I am definitely concerned about sleet...already sleeting (mPING) where one might have thought it be snowing in w MD. It will be hazardous at times this afternoon-evening on all surfaces up here nw NJ and se NYS. Ground too cold and air temps I do not think can rise as fast as modeled away from LI.  So the first 3 graphics are NWS ensemble chances of 1+, 2+ and 4+ inches.  Then the EPS prob courtesy Weather.US, for 3+ inches which continues uncertainty nw NJ but favors 3+ with its ~80% probs.  Finally the 06z HRRRX variable density product and these amounts look a little too high to me.... I could see this would be possible if ALL snow.  So my confidence in an all snow situation til 02z is below average for nw NJ and ne PA.  Hope I'm wrong.   658A/18

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.13.53 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.25.26 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-18_at_5_17.01_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-18 at 5.32.21 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-18_at_4_53.43_AM.png

Thanks. Just one of those years nothing goes our way.

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At 8:40 am, an area of snow was pushing eastward across central Pennsylvania. Recently, Bradford was reporting heavy snow with a temperature of 18°. As the morning progresses, the snow will move into eastern Pennsylvania. During the early afternoon, snow will begin to break out in the greater New York Metro area. For now, the storm remains on track to bring a general 2"-4" snow to such locations as Newark, New York City, and Bridgeport. Scranton, Binghamton, and Albany still appear to be in line for 3"-6" snow.

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Final call 

KNYC 2

KEWR 3

KLGA 1.5

KJFK .9

KBDR 4 

I actually agree with those 100%.

Do u have the 6z EURO?

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Final call

Central Park 3.4 inches

white plains 5.6

newark 3.6

albany 6.7

mahopac 6.1

boston 3.9

hartford 4.7

philadelphoa 1.2

scranton 7.0

stamford 4.3

islip 2.9

westhampton 0.9

monticello 7.8

syracuse 8.5

poughkeepsie 6.6

 

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VERY HIGH PRESSURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS

675  
ASUS41 KOKX 181414  
RWROKX  
 
REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
900 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2020  
 

NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR S TO VISIBILITY
.  

 
NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-181500-
 
NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA  

 
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
 
CENTRAL PARK CLOUDY 23 3 42 E8 30.53F WCI 14  
BRONX LEHMAN C N/A 23 5 46 SE5 N/A WCI 17  
LAGUARDIA ARPT CLOUDY 21 2 43 E7 30.53F WCI 12  
QUEENS COLLEGE N/A 21 5 49 NE8 N/A WCI 12  
KENNEDY INTL CLOUDY 22 5 48 E7 30.55F WCI 13  
BREEZY POINT N/A N/A N/A N/A NE7 N/A  
BROOKLYN COLL N/A 25 5 42 E6 N/A WCI 18  
STATEN ISLAND N/A 25 7 46 SE5 N/A WCI 19  
NEWARK/LIBERTY CLOUDY 23 3 42 E5 30.52F WCI 17  
TETERBORO CLOUDY 23 1 38 VRB3 30.52F  


 
 

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