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Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020


wdrag
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Good Monday morning everyone,  

Have offered to focus the general discussion thread on next weekends storm into one single thread. It's been a terrible winter so far s of I80 and not much to boast about north of I80.  I'm adding graphics daily at about this time, until the threat fails to materialize.  No guarantees on anything. It does not look good for NYC south, so far.  Contributions are from the NWS public domain and the Weather.US and the ECMWF. We'll see how this verifies for long range value.  The first two graphics are the NWS ensemble chance of greater than .25" water equivalent of frozen precipitation.   These are run off of late day ensembles and post, "prior" to the 00z cycle ensembles. The two graphics courtesy of the ECMWF are the chances of 3+" of snow for this event which are increasing a bit in the I84 area and are from the 00z ensembles.   No LOCK on any of this coming to pass though I'm pretty confident the interior west and north of NYC will have some sort of winter hazards this weekend. Depends I think, in part on how strong the northern stream short wave is that crosses the Great Lakes.  The stronger it is, then I think the storm tracks further north.  

 

At 633AM the 14th, I added the 00z/14 NWS ensemble and EPS chance of 3+ inches of snow so that it's easy to go back and compare to reality.  The risk has increased a bit for the NWS ensemble system to something similar to the EPS.  Certainly no lock for 3+ inches s of I-84. 

 

At 457PM/19 added the NOHRSC snowfall analysis. Gives a feel for value in the ensembles.  Later, Walt

Screen Shot 2020-01-12 at 6.35.27 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-13 at 5.03.45 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-12 at 6.07.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-13 at 4.48.39 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 5.19.55 AM 1.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-14 at 5.36.27 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-15 at 6.08.22 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-15 at 6.14.26 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-19 at 4.43.14 PM.png

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Should be an interesting week of tracking. Like you just said , the further north the primary is, the more warmth there will be.

Gfs just shifted slightly south with the primary and the Euro also did the same. Should this continue, the area would see more frozen on the front end.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Should be an interesting week of tracking. Like you just said , the further north the primary is, the more warmth there will be.

Gfs just shifted slightly south with the primary and the Euro also did the same. Should this continue, the area would see more frozen on the front end.

The GEFS has hinted at a coastal redevelopment south of us. Not out of the realm of possibilities.

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The GFS has been the most consistent of all the models for several days now one run after another - not impossible in mid- January with a strong high in front of it slow to leave the area- it also has shifted the higher totals south across southern inland NJ this run

gfs_asnow_neus_25.png

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Some really nice trends with this over night. Last week I mentioned a possible overrunning threat around this timeframe. I can just see ch 7 news now, with the screen shot of last Saturday in the 70’s at Central Park compared to next Saturday in the snow lol. 

How was the 6z eps on the low placement for Saturdays event bud?

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6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

12z gfs really blowing up the cutter for Thursday in New England. This should really help with confluence for Saturday.

This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place. 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

This is definitely going to be a colder run then 06z. The storm blowing up beforehand help keeps the artic high in place. 

High is noticeably stronger too. Let’s see what happens. FWIW which is something I guess the icon was much colder for Saturday’s event

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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

High is noticeably stronger too. Let’s see what happens. FWIW which is something I guess the icon was much colder for Saturday’s event

Low around Erie helps also. Lots of overrunning snows this run for the area. Only negative it the high splits so we a bit of a southeast wind along the coast 

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro. 

The primary is weaker and further south. The high is really nice up north.

Gfs has been leading the way so far 

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3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

4-8 thump for the area on the Gfs. It’s nice to see but keep expectations in check. Models have been horrible this winter and having a low in upstate ny isn’t ideal. It’s really all about that high pressure for the nyc metro. 

the other issue is that midlevel warmth usually comes in faster than modeled, I'd expect a quicker change to sleet as it transitions from snow to rain

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4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Wow, basically a complete snowstorm for the entire region on the GFS with VERY COLD air in place. Not even sure much mix would enter the picture per that run. 

It turns to rain on the GFS: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020011312&fh=138

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6 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Wow, basically a complete snowstorm for the entire region on the GFS with VERY COLD air in place. Not even sure much mix would enter the picture per that run. 

Maybe if someone has soundings we can confirm your statement?

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