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Rjay

January 7th-8th Threat

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4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

based on Don S's snowfall tallies, looks like the average snowfall line is from Binghamton to Boston.  Time will tell if that progresses southward as the season moves along.

 

That sounds about right. I'm 20 miles north of 84 with 13.5 so far which is about average. Albany(Capital region) has received about 30 so far which is half their seasonal total already. 

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At 11:10 am, snow had moved into Charlottesville. Ahead of the snow, temperatures had risen into the middle 40s in Atlantic City (45°), Baltimore (45°), and Washington, DC (45°). As precipitation arrives this afternoon, temperatures at those locations should fall. Therefore, rain should change to snow.

The 12z GFS has come in a little snowier. The 12z RGEM was fairly consistent with the 0z ECMWF. The HRRR is not impressed with the system.

Widespread 2"-3" amounts appear possible just to the west of the Baltimore-Washington corridor. As the storm deepens, some periods of moderate snow could also impact eastern Long Island. The potential for a narrow area of 1"-3" amounts in part of New Jersey exists. Therefore, I made some minor adjustments.

Overall, my thinking concerning snowfall amounts remains similar to that of last evening:

Atlantic City: 1" or less
Baltimore: 1"-3"
Harrisburg: 1" or less
Islip: 1" or less
New York City: 0.5" or less
Newark: 0.5" or less
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Sterling: 1"-3"
Washington, DC: 1"-3"
Wilmington, DE: 1"-2"

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So close yet so far

 

upton

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure ejects off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight and
strengthens as it passes south and east of Long Island. There
are subtle differences in the track of the low, but most models
take the center of the low over or east of the 40N/70W
benchmark...a favorable position for snow for our area, however,
the consensus forecast track is too far east for any significant
snow.
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56 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That sounds about right. I'm 20 miles north of 84 with 13.5 so far which is about average. Albany(Capital region) has received about 30 so far which is half their seasonal total already. 

I live right next to you 

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Based upon surface obs that I am seeing most of the 10 and 15 dbz echoes in central PA are Virga and are not reaching the ground.  Snow is currently reaching the ground as far north as Shippensburg PA which is well SW of Harrisburg.

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20 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Based upon surface obs that I am seeing most of the 10 and 15 dbz echoes in central PA are Virga and are not reaching the ground.  Snow is currently reaching the ground as far north as Shippensburg PA which is well SW of Harrisburg.

State College is getting Light Snow as well as per Met I read elsewhere.

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The Euro is way to warm at the BL. Most on the coast start as L Rain and then transition to L Snow between 0z and 3z.

Little to no accumulation. 

I expect zero impact to the roads in and around the city and most coastal locals.

There`s a good chance more snow falls for some with the snow showers tomorrow than does tonight ( I don`t expect many reports of an inch ).

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1 minute ago, Zelocita Weather said:

What is the total QPF (regardless of precip type) on the EURO for NYC?

.06

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From the ground obs that I am seeing it looks like the 15 dbz echoes represent the leading edge of the snow reaching the ground.  That puts it not far west of Allentown and near the western Philly suburbs.

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Snow is now overspreading the Lehigh Valley in eastern PA.  I am watching a white shroud move towards me as I type this.  39*

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Just took this off the National Weather Service site I think they made a mistake can anyone confirm

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

CTZ007>012-NJZ006-106>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-082045-
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-
Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northwestern Suffolk-Northeastern Suffolk-Southwestern Suffolk-
Southeastern Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
340 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Snow this evening could be heavy at times and could result in snow of
2 to 4 inches. This will lead to slippery conditions on the roads
and low visibilities.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Snow squalls will be possible on Wednesday, mainly in the late
morning through the afternoon. This will bring brief low visibilities
down to a quarter mile or less.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.
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As of 4 pm, Sterling (IAD) had picked up 1.7" snow. Precipitation in the greater Washington area should be winding down over the next 1-2 hours.

Based on observations, the edge of the accumulating snow had come farther north than shown on some of the modeling. As a result, Harrisburg had several periods of heavy snow. This may imply that a slice of Long Island (most likely Suffolk County) could see 1"-3" snow as the storm tracks well south and east of the New York City area. Islip could approach or reach the lower part of that range.

Over the course of the evening, light precipitation should change to snow in Philadelphia and Wilmington as temperatures fall. Atlantic City still looks likely to see 1" or less of snow, as the changeover could be too late to allow for much more to accumulate. At 4 pm, the temperature there was still a balmy 45°.

 

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This is the National Weather Service latest discussion

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
HRRR model is depicting afternoon snowfall upstream but seems to be
too slow with its movement and too far to the south.

Main issue for tonight is the snow. Expecting this to occur mainly
this evening to shortly after midnight. Timeframe of around 7pm
to 12am. There is a possibility depending on low position of
some moderate to heavy snow in that timeframe, with higher
chances of seeing this across Eastern Suffolk County Long Island
which will be relatively closer to the low as it is deepening
late this evening. Eastern Long Island also probably still
seeing some snow shortly after midnight, ending around 1-2am
there.

Low pressure moves off Mid-Atlantic and tracks south of Long Island
close to 40N/70W benchmark while deepening slightly. It further
deepens as it moves farther offshore and away from the region
overnight into very early Wednesday.

Precipitation amounts vary between the different forecast models.
They vary with the precip area north and west of the low. 12Z NAM
higher than other guidance but still want to weigh the NAM
solution in because of possible banding and any additional
deepening of low would result in expansion of precipitation area
and a more quick cooling of boundary layer.

Consensus of model data shows a relatively larger area of
precipitation encompassing the coastal sections of the region with
most interior areas like Orange, Putnam, and Western Passaic
counties being on the outer fringe of this precip area.

Precipitation is between a few hundredths of an inch to about three
tenths of an inch, lowest for far NW sections of region, highest SE
sections of region. Much of this occurs this evening, lasting longer
for Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut with some
lingering snow shortly after midnight.

There is potential for higher amounts of snow of a few inches more
than forecast if low is stronger and is closer to the coast. Models
keep a half to three quarter of an inch offshore but if this occurs
farther northwest over the coastal areas, there would a mix of rain
and snow changing to a relatively heavier snow, and about 2 to
3 inches more snow than forecast across all coastal areas.

 

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There's a band over the ocean that's moving into New York City right now looks like it wants to connect with the main bands that's in Eastern Pennsylvania the radar looks really good I wonder if we're going to be in for any surprises tonight

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Radar really exploding over Central New Jersey and out over the ocean still looks to be moving northward. A lot of times models do not handle these bands well and they can shift further  North then currently modeld

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It would be great if NYC metro and Long Island get a nice surprise from this system. So much talk on this board recently about about 60 degree warmth it would be nice to get a little snow. 

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13 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Any reports of rain or snow on the South Shore of Long Island or Central New Jersey Radar returns look good there

Light rain just began here in SW Suffolk at 40 degrees.

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There are some reports out of the Sayville & Patchogue area of snow, or a rain/snow mix.

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