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DanLarsen34

January 10-11 Severe Weather Threat

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Moderate risk to be expanded farther east with the new outlook. 

Seems like there is pretty good agreement across guidance that the greatest overall tornado threat may be across southeast OK into northeast TX...though I still would watch out across southeastern TX...I'm not totally sold either that there isn't more discrete than what is currently shown...there are some hints at it but nothing glaring. 

The damaging wind threat though is looking pretty legit. 

image.thumb.png.7863ecb5076e6cd60588318164ee349e.png

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It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional.

More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself.

It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter. 

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3 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

It seems like the biggest discrete supercell tornado threat this afternoon will be initially near I-35 from central TX northward into Oklahoma. We may get a cell or two a bit further east in TX but it's much more conditional.

More concerning is the latest HRRR which show a nasty QLCS moving through NE TX, while a string of cells forms ahead of the line near the TX-LA border. Those could be our dangerous nocturnal tornado producers, aside from the QLCS itself.

It wouldn't surprise me if a bunch of people start crying bust by 7-8 pm and the main show begins shortly thereafter. 

Yeah this is something to definitely watch and I think hi-res models are starting to hint more and more at this possibility. Given the environment you would think outflow from the QLCS could be vigorous enough to produce updrafts out ahead of it. 

I think there are two windows here for tornadic supercells...initially (or early on in the game) and then again moving into the overnight...especially with the nocturnal increase in the LLJ...this coincides with another burst of instability (due to increasing llvl theta-e). 

Could be a long night from SE TX into LA and perhaps even as far north as AR (in terms of tornadoes). 

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12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

That significant tornado contour is massive 

 

And populous. Over 10 million folks in there

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

12z sounding out of DFW...yikes

image.thumb.png.d7f3ba44cd55fb6bdb2e9ef905322445.png

Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels.

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4 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Yeah, that is a lot less 850-500mb veer-back than was shown in most NAM forecast soundings 24-36 hours ago. Much more favorable wind profile in the low to mid levels.

Much cleaner look for sure. 

 

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Already have breaks in the low level clouds at my location in Longview, TX. Will be something to watch - if we can get temperatures higher than forecast it will up the ante a bit.

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It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update. 

 

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10 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

It’s safe to say the soundings in the latest model runs are quite ominous. Have to wonder if the SPC upgrades tornado probabilities in Texas in the next update. 

 

At bare minimum the 15/hatched should extend to DFW this next update.

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If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area 

image.png.bba6be5da5cd03fcb3aad5f2c48045cc.png

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area 

image.png.bba6be5da5cd03fcb3aad5f2c48045cc.png

You could probably extend that further into AR if you believe that latest HRRR trends. The Super Tuesday analogue seems less comical now than it did a few days ago

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1 minute ago, Bob's Burgers said:

You could probably extend that further into AR if you believe that latest HRRR trends. The Super Tuesday analogue seems less comical now than it did a few days ago

Yeah definitely couldn't rule out a farther expansion of that area...especially if you want to consider the damaging wind aspect...I sorta focused more on tornado probs but if I were to include winds it would have been much bigger 

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28 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If we see an upgrade to high risk b/c of tornado probs this is the area I'm thinking. Latest guidance really hammering in on this area 

image.png.bba6be5da5cd03fcb3aad5f2c48045cc.png

Even if they don't go with a high risk their will probably be a PDS tornado watch for that area in the late evening

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2 minutes ago, METALSTORM said:

Even if they don't go with a high risk their will probably be a PDS tornado watch for that area in the late evening

agreed. 

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5 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

1630 out early, little change.

I'm surprised they didn't extend the moderate west that cap is modeled to be gone by 18Z. Once they start firing up around 18-19Z it won't be long until those are warned.

image.thumb.png.31ce11dd0984cfcbd90f23240cdf4eea.png

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In East Texas the schools are all canceling basketball games or moving them up to earlier today. I don't recall ever seeing that for anything other than snow/ice. 

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some clearing over NE OK. SW MO..

 

 

RGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 2  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1040 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2020  
  
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A  
  
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF   
  NORTHWEST ARKANSAS  
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI  
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA  
  
* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1040 AM UNTIL  
  600 PM CST.  
  
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...  
  A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE  
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY  
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY  
  
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND  
SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.   
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER  
CELLS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF TORNADOES AS THE STORMS MOVE  
EASTWARD.  
  

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22 minutes ago, Indystorm said:

Good CAPE, helicity and dews moving northward in that just issued tornado watch area.

60-63 dews across far SW Missouri with clearing skies

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