Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 15 minutes ago, PB-99 said: I am not going to post day 12 surface maps but the MJO into p7 supports the trough in the SE at the date I outlined yesterday. Jan 25th or so. But the GFS now has SLP at the BM, the key will be can this phase and the cold air win out. N branch was off by 18 hours. Just a time frame to watch. I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 51 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I'm sorry, but with that setup and track that's a snowstorm. Then again I'm not losing sleep over a day 12 GFS surface reflection. At this far out juncture I'm just looking for a consistent signal with all the major models. The EPS takes the ULL and digs it into the OHV , which would get us home. The GFS over amplifies the N branch ( which it likes to do ) and drives it through the lakes and that would pull the heights back. And I agree being 12 day away that`s why I just left it loose for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 With the MJO heading towards 8-1 there really is no excuse but for a 6 week productive pattern to settle in. I believe February will rock on this board a la 2014 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast I'm not laughing, if that should happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did As long as there are threats , its okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: As long as there are threats , its okay. like saturday's which is getting rainier with every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, forkyfork said: like saturday's which is getting rainier with every run? 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: So now the pattern isnt going to change ? What is it ? The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter Philly has less than an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Philly has less than an inch that's 72/73 type bad. Even 01-02 and 11-12 had 4-6 inches by the end of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: that's 72/73 type bad. Even 01-02 and 11-12 had 4-6 inches by the end of January. Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dude they are a joke , that`s a model run difference and it`s all driven by the day 10 ridging across the lakes Here`s the actual day 7- 14 , does that look like a torch in late Jan ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, rclab said: Didn’t we have a recent memory cold season that had zero accumulation a but into March? As always.... I don't recall a winter like that. Last year was close-but the biggest snow was in Nov, without that we would have gone close to snowless until the March events came... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Brian5671 said: I don't recall a winter like that. Last year was close-but the biggest snow was in Nov, without that we would have gone close to snowless until the March events came... 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March yep, now I remember that one. Horrid outside of a mid and late month storm and I remember the 2nd one busting-got like an inch or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB-99 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: That BAM posting was the misleading post of the century. That’s the change in anomaly from the prior EPS run. The actually anomaly shown by the EPS in that period is still entirely below normal in the east Unreal. You don`t expect energy met`s in the private sector to that but when you claim winter is over 3 weeks ago, so I guess you better look for anything to help your story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 91-92 had basically nothing until mid March Yeah that winter my station had 3.2" thru March 17th, then 10" thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: IF NYC gets to 1/31 with 1.5 inches of snow that has to be among the all time lows for the first 2/3 of met winter NYC has 2.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast bad snow years always have some misses to the south., the north, and a great storm to early or to late in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 least snowfall by dates...... 1/09/2007.....0 1/10/2007/73/00/66.. trace 1/19/2000/73/66...trace 1/20/1973.....trace 1/28/1973.....trace 1/29/1995.....0.2" 2/04/1998.....0.5" 3/22/1919.....2.4" 3/28/1973.....2.8" to end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: the longer range EPS doesn't look as cold as yesterday's runs did JB continues to look more and more foolish each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Today saw a continuation of warmer than normal weather. The generally warmer than normal conditions will likely persist through Friday. However, a more winter-like pattern lies ahead in the medium-term. During the coming weekend, colder air will likely return for a period. There is potential for the temperature to fall into the teens even in New York City. Afterward, even as moderation should follow for a time, the cold will likely return during the closing week of the month. At that point, the cold could become sustained and continue into at least the start of February. On Friday night and Saturday there is potential for a system to bring New York City and Newark its first measurable snowfall since January 6. Philadelphia could receive its first measurable snowfall since December 11. At present, this continues to appear to be the kind of storm that could bring 1"-3"/2"-4" to Philadelphia to New York City, more to the north and west, including New England, and less to the south and east. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around January 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -10.64 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.368. The AO will average above +3.000 during the January 1-15 period. Since 1950, there were 7 cases when the AO averaged +2.000 or above during that period. Four (57%) saw the AO average for the final 15 days of January average 1.500 or more sigma lower than the January 1-15 figure (1952, 1983, 2005, and 2007) with 1952 and 2005 having a negative average for the latter period. All four had a negative AO average for February. Three (43%) saw smaller declines (1975, 1989, and 1993). All three had February AO averages > 0.000. No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 22. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed just past mid-January. Toward January 20, a short-lived moderate amplitude Wave 2 could impact the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS. On January 13, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 3.555 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 3.530. The January 13 amplitude is the highest January figure on record during Phase 5 of the MJO. Since 1974, there were 8 prior cases where the MJO reached Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above in the January 5-20 period. In 7 or 88% of those cases, the MJO progressed into Phases 7 and 8. Progression consistent with the historical experience would increase prospects for the development of a colder pattern during late January, which could continue into at least the start of February. Further, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.273 on January 7 with an AO of +4.048. Since 1974, there were January three cases when the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above and an AO of +3.000 or above. In all three cases the Week 3-4 period was colder than the Week 1-2 period (smallest change: 2.7° in 1993; largest change 16.8° in 2007). The change in 14-day average temperatures from the above three cases would imply a January 22-February 3 mean temperature of 10°-12° below the January 8-21 mean temperature in New York City. This data implies that the latter two week period would be colder than normal overall. In addition, an MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above typically sees measurable snowfall consistent with overall January 16-31 climatology. That would imply approximately 2 measurable snow events for Philadelphia to New York City and 2-3 such events for Boston during the closing two weeks of January. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 77% probability of a warmer than normal January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 For a winter month, I don't think that you could have a more boring first two weeks... +9° temp departure... 0.46" of precip and 1" of snow. I'm not an all snow guy, so give me cold Temps and some stormieness and I'm ok...but geez come on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, doncat said: For a winter month, I don't think that you could have a more boring first two weeks... +9° temp departure... 0.46" of precip and 1" of snow. I'm not an all snow guy, so give me cold Temps and some stormieness and I'm ok...but geez come on. Last 10 days of December were bad too-temps in the 40's, no precip, yawn city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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