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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020


jburns
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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS drops a lobe of the TPVortex into the Great Lakes this run.  Has temperatures below zero in the mountains Christmas morning, and 4PM temperature of 21 in Greensboro

Still learning but that low that forms at the base of the trough then seems to cut. Does that make sense with that huge front pushing down?

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5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning but that low that forms at the base of the trough then seems to cut. Does that make sense with that huge front pushing down?

Yes.  It's really just a cold front passage, but it's very amplified and there's a piece of upper level energy there at the base of the trough where a low rides north up the front.  But for us east of the mountains, we would need a piece of energy to drop in after the cold air has moved in.  The mountains would do well with upslope post frontal snow.

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4 hours ago, snowbird1230 said:

Am I so old that I'm the only one on here remembers Christmas 1983?

-25 degrees throughout WNC

I’m so old that I walked across the Ohio river when it froze back in 77-78 :wub:

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

This right here

Accumulation be damned, last time my area had a White Christmas was the 1989 snowstorm (5 years before this young whipper snapper was born)

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

We did have the day after Christmas snow 10 years ago  :D

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This will be such an interesting and frustrating set-up! The chase can often times lead to disappointment and incredibly tight gradients, but it is something interesting to watch nonetheless. 

However, I am really interested in the post-Christmas through first week of January period! Our outlook has completely changed over the course of the last few months for the better in terms of winter weather. The La Nina has likely peaked and is going to be declining in strength as we enter Jan/Feb. The teleconnections look very good going into Christmas, and this month may be our first with a -AO signal for almost 30 full days in probably a decade at the least. Long range models hinting at an awesome stretch of high-latitude blocking and even a potential sudden stratospheric warming event going into January (ECMWF specifically). SSWs can disrupt the polar vortex and allow arctic air masses to dislodge and move further south, bringing in our supply of colder air to work with. I'm still skeptical of the SSW , because it literally is the buzzword that comes up every winter as our potential savior, but I'm excited about the chance still. Also, these types of events can be tough for models to account for, so if it does occur, be weary of modeling until they can account it. Does not guarantee anything, but I'll take anything after the past few miserable winters on my end. 

EpPXeCHXMAUqG51.jpeg

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1 hour ago, yotaman said:

Anyone remember the Christmas of 1989? I lived in Va Beach and it got down to 11 Christmas morning. Where I live now got hammered by a foot of snow and temps down below zero. Coldest morning ever here. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

Yep. Here in Savannah that was the best Christmas of my life

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Flooding rain instead of snow? 
904855983_prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma(3).thumb.png.586e784a31754ab9cac2ded7f13ad0dc.png
Swimming in the streets
Man this outlook's bleak
It's always rain or sleet
A White Christmas we do seek!

But we live in a fire hose
Thanks to the ol' warm nose
And we have nothing to show
Because it can't freaking snow!

OH!

Winter time, winter time
How we love you so
So can you spare us a dime
With a coastal lo-ow?!

Winter time, winter time
You just can't be beat
We are sick of cold rain slime
So how about a 73 repeat?!

We all watch and wait
As our hopes start to soar
Models running late
Make this quite the chore!

But there is a single fact
As the north starts to feast
Cold air can't come attack
Because we live in the Southeast!

OH!

Winter time, winter time
How we love you so
So can you spare us a dime
With a coastal lo-ow?!

Winter time, winter time
You just can't be beat
We are sick of cold rain slime
So how about a 73 repeat?!

(I will move this to Banter if told to, I am on my last point and don't want my account banned)

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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