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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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17 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I got you. I remember 8 inches of sleet in Wake County 84 maybe?mint.19850121.gif

This is the kind of stuff that makes little kids gain this hobby. Or just good parents pointing out days like this. 

 

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28 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

This is the kind of stuff that makes little kids gain this hobby. Or just good parents pointing out days like this. 

 

My grandfather did that for me. We have a farm in the -10 swath. tough on everyone and everything, esp the animals

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS drops a lobe of the TPVortex into the Great Lakes this run.  Has temperatures below zero in the mountains Christmas morning, and 4PM temperature of 21 in Greensboro

Well hello little fellow.. 

Screen Shot 2020-12-18 at 11.21.41 AM.png

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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS drops a lobe of the TPVortex into the Great Lakes this run.  Has temperatures below zero in the mountains Christmas morning, and 4PM temperature of 21 in Greensboro

Still learning but that low that forms at the base of the trough then seems to cut. Does that make sense with that huge front pushing down?

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5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Still learning but that low that forms at the base of the trough then seems to cut. Does that make sense with that huge front pushing down?

Yes.  It's really just a cold front passage, but it's very amplified and there's a piece of upper level energy there at the base of the trough where a low rides north up the front.  But for us east of the mountains, we would need a piece of energy to drop in after the cold air has moved in.  The mountains would do well with upslope post frontal snow.

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If we could get any kind of mood flakes Christmas Eve or Day - that's a win in my book.
This right here

Accumulation be damned, last time my area had a White Christmas was the 1989 snowstorm (5 years before this young whipper snapper was born)

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

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Regardless of the outcomes, it looks pretty certain we are going to have a major storm system to track for Christmas.  It's been a long time...

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4 hours ago, snowbird1230 said:

Am I so old that I'm the only one on here remembers Christmas 1983?

-25 degrees throughout WNC

I’m so old that I walked across the Ohio river when it froze back in 77-78 :wub:

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

This right here

Accumulation be damned, last time my area had a White Christmas was the 1989 snowstorm (5 years before this young whipper snapper was born)

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

We did have the day after Christmas snow 10 years ago  :D

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2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah, but it isn't a white Christmas emoji23.pngemoji23.pngemoji23.png

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It’s close enough for me :lol:  besides..... I didn’t sleep the week leading up to it so all my days ran together :P 

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22 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE, definitely getting better (now for once the Euro needs to cave to the GFS)cf0e85238a354e34f5ff05725e6565d5.jpg

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Which equals out to this image. The OP might be drastically overdone with the anafrontal snow. 

9674338C-97F3-42A3-931E-4F360D80C976.png

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This will be such an interesting and frustrating set-up! The chase can often times lead to disappointment and incredibly tight gradients, but it is something interesting to watch nonetheless. 

However, I am really interested in the post-Christmas through first week of January period! Our outlook has completely changed over the course of the last few months for the better in terms of winter weather. The La Nina has likely peaked and is going to be declining in strength as we enter Jan/Feb. The teleconnections look very good going into Christmas, and this month may be our first with a -AO signal for almost 30 full days in probably a decade at the least. Long range models hinting at an awesome stretch of high-latitude blocking and even a potential sudden stratospheric warming event going into January (ECMWF specifically). SSWs can disrupt the polar vortex and allow arctic air masses to dislodge and move further south, bringing in our supply of colder air to work with. I'm still skeptical of the SSW , because it literally is the buzzword that comes up every winter as our potential savior, but I'm excited about the chance still. Also, these types of events can be tough for models to account for, so if it does occur, be weary of modeling until they can account it. Does not guarantee anything, but I'll take anything after the past few miserable winters on my end. 

EpPXeCHXMAUqG51.jpeg

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The cold air does catch up around GSO eventually but it’s nowhere near the GFS. The Canadian looked similar last night but backed off at 12z. There’s basically nothing from the Lee side all the way to about Greensboro though. 

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